Vault 18 Regional Finals: Wales Shows the Depth, but the South West Has Plenty of Firepower

 

Vault 18 came to an end on 16 August, bringing seven weeks of qualification to a close and setting up the next stage: the Regional Finals.

For the players who have made it through, the rewards are significant. There is serious prize money available, but perhaps even more importantly, an opportunity to progress towards the MODUS Super Series and the exposure that comes with playing live on Pluto TV.

That can open doors well beyond one weekend.

For this first look at the Regional Finals, I am concentrating mainly on the two areas I have covered most closely throughout Vault 18: the South West and Wales.

I am not making outright predictions yet. That will come closer to the Regional Finals themselves.

Instead, I wanted to answer a different set of questions.

How strong were the Vault events in each region? Which venues consistently produced the toughest fields? How do the final Top 32s compare? And does the regional table necessarily tell us who the most dangerous players actually are?

The results are fascinating.

---

Wales Has the Deeper Top 32

The clearest finding comes from comparing the actual Vault averages of the 32 qualifiers in each region.

At the very top, there is virtually nothing between them.

The five strongest averages in the South West produce a combined figure of 83.32, while the equivalent five in Wales come out at 83.48.

That is effectively level.

Move further down the field, however, and Wales begins to pull away.

Field depth	South West	Wales
Best 5 average	83.32	83.48
Best 10	80.75	82.70
Best 16	78.84	81.49
Best 20	77.82	80.69
Full Top 32	74.55	78.26

The contrast becomes even clearer when looking at the number of players reaching certain standards.

The South West has four players averaging 80 or more.

Wales has 11.

The South West has 15 players averaging at least 75.

Wales has 26.

So the story is not that Wales necessarily possesses a far stronger group of favourites.

It is that the Welsh field appears to lose much less quality as you travel through the draw.

That could make the Welsh Regional Final particularly unforgiving.

---

Henry Cooper Sets the Standard in the South West

If Wales wins the depth argument, the highest individual average across the two fields belongs to the South West.

Henry Cooper leads the South West rankings with a superb 87.22 average.

He finished on the maximum 320 points despite competing in only 12 events, making his qualification particularly impressive.

And he isn't alone at the top.

Gareth Griffiths sits seventh in the regional table but averaged 85.59.

Josh McCarthy is sixth at 81.66.

Robbie Martin, despite being only the 14th seed, averaged 82.40.

That latter number is particularly interesting when cross-referenced with the wider Q4QS database.

Martin is one of the strongest South West qualifiers in the wider data and arrives with a 10-0 recent record, including consecutive Vault 18 titles.

That immediately shows why simply following the regional seedings could be dangerous.

---

The South West Players Whose Seeds Could Be Misleading

The wider Q4QS data throws up several players who look considerably stronger than their Vault position might initially suggest.

Gareth Griffiths ranks extremely highly in the wider Vault-filtered Q4QS data despite qualifying seventh.

Robbie Martin is 14th.

Zach Quinn, with a 78.32 Vault average, qualified only 22nd.

Then comes perhaps the most eye-catching example.

Declan Cox qualified 32nd.

Last place in the Regional Final field.

Yet Cox has already demonstrated that his ceiling is considerably higher than that seed suggests. At North Star Club in Calne he produced a 103.66 average, while Josh McCarthy hit 100.20 at the same event. Cox went on to win the tournament.

That is not the profile of somebody you would necessarily want as the bottom seed in your section of the draw.

The South West may not have the same depth of 80-plus averages as Wales, but it contains plenty of players capable of producing very high-level darts on the right day.

---

Wales: Danger Almost Everywhere

The Welsh field looks different.

The eye-catching feature is not just the top of the rankings.

It is how many strong players appear deep into the 32.

The first 12 qualifiers all finished on 320 points, but even that does not tell the full story.

Some of the strongest statistical players are much further down.

Llew Bevan is only the 26th seed but averaged 84.39 — the highest average in the entire Welsh Top 32.

Keenan Thomas is 29th with an 81.38 average.

Luke Newport is 17th at 81.59.

Ryan Davies is 20th at 79.98.

Gavin Sterio is 27th at 79.46.

That is extraordinary depth.

It means drawing somebody ranked in the twenties in Wales offers no guarantee whatsoever of getting an easier match.

---

Connor Hopkins Leads the Wider Q4QS Picture

Cross-referencing the Welsh qualifiers with the larger Vault 18 database produces another significant name.

Connor Hopkins ranks second across the entire Vault-filtered Q4QS player pool.

He qualified fifth in Wales.

That demonstrates just how little the regional seed alone tells us about underlying playing standard.

And we already have evidence of his ceiling.

At Wattsville National Club, Hopkins produced averages of 98.92 and 95.94, while Stephen Cake hit 100.20 and 95.94 at the same event.

Cake eventually finished top of the Welsh Regional rankings.

Alec Small, another of the Welsh 320-point qualifiers, also appeared prominently in that same event and later won at Tredegar, where he produced a 92.02 average.

So the Welsh depth isn't merely the product of accumulated averages.

There have been plenty of high-level performances behind those numbers.

---

Points Do Not Tell the Whole Story

This is another important part of the Vault 18 picture.

Players competed in very different numbers of events.

That means points partly reflect performance, but they also reflect opportunity and volume.

Take the South West.

Henry Cooper reached 320 points from just 12 events.

Gareth Griffiths earned 212 from only eight.

Jamie Kay reached 208 from nine.

Compare that with some players who competed in more than 20 tournaments.

Wales provides an even more extreme example.

Alex Williams reached 320 points from only 11 events.

Stephen Cake also scored 320 but competed in 26.

Timothy Jones required 28 events to reach the same total.

None of this makes one player automatically better than another.

But it does highlight why points, averages and underlying Q4QS strength should all be considered together rather than treating the regional standings as a simple power ranking.

---

Which Region Had the Strongest Vault Events?

The tournament-strength export produces one of the more surprising findings.

I use a calculated Tournament Strength score in the Q4QS database. It is important to stress that this is not simply an average. Player strength and the quality of the field contribute to the calculation.

Looking across the Vault 18 series, Wales and the South West were actually much closer than the Regional Final averages might suggest.

Across the events I could confidently classify, the average Tournament Strength multiplier was approximately:

Wales — 1.085

South West — 1.081

That is almost nothing between them.

The median figures are similarly close.

So this isn't a case of Wales simply having much stronger Vault tournaments throughout the seven-week series.

The everyday playing environments in the two regions were broadly comparable.

The bigger difference appears when we get to which players accumulated enough points to form the final 32.

That is a much more interesting conclusion.

---

Lindsay Constitutional Club Leads the Way in Wales

When the venues are separated out, one stands above the rest.

Lindsay Constitutional Club, Cefn Hengoed

Across seven recorded Vault 18 events, Lindsay produced an average Tournament Strength multiplier of approximately 1.254.

Its strongest individual event reached 1.350, comfortably the highest figure I found across the South West and Welsh comparison.

The average Top-20 figure across its events was also around 67.82.

And the results data supports that strength.

Stephen Cake won there during Vault 18, producing 91.69 and 90.73 performances on the night.

Behind Lindsay, some of the other strongest recurring Welsh venues included:

Cardiff County Conservative Club

Brynmawr Social Club

PILCS Sports & Social Club

Mile End Inn, Swansea

Brynmawr is particularly noteworthy because it produced 14 recorded Vault events while still maintaining a strong overall field level.

That suggests sustained depth rather than one unusually strong tournament.

---

Sartan Leads a Strong South West Group

The strongest recurring South West venue was:

Sartan Club, Bishopsworth

Across eight events, Sartan produced an average Tournament Strength multiplier of approximately 1.235, with a best event of 1.305.

That makes it the South West benchmark for Vault 18.

Behind it came:

North Star Club, Calne

Elmore Football Club, Tiverton

Yeovil Labour Club

Indian Queens WMC, Cornwall

with Magpies Social Club, Stonehouse and Saintbridge Sports Club, Gloucester very close behind.

Again, this is useful context.

The South West doesn't rely on one strong pocket of darts.

There are competitive fields spread across Bristol, Wiltshire, Somerset, Devon, Cornwall and Gloucestershire.

At Indian Queens, for example, Gareth Griffiths and Neil Meneer met in a Vault final after both producing 96.97 averages during the event. Griffiths also hit 91.84 in the final.

---

South West v Wales: What Have We Actually Learned?

There are three different comparisons here.

And they don't all produce exactly the same answer.

At the very top of the Regional Finals

Almost nothing separates the regions.

South West even possesses the highest individual average through Henry Cooper.

Across the full Top 32

Wales looks significantly deeper.

The Welsh field contains far more 80-plus players and very few qualifiers whose averages drop much below the mid-70s.

Across the Vault tournaments themselves

The regions were surprisingly similar in overall tournament strength.

Wales has the strongest individual venue in Lindsay Constitutional Club and a slightly higher average strength figure, but the difference across all events is relatively small.

That leads me to perhaps the most interesting conclusion of all.

The strength difference in the Regional Finals isn't necessarily because Wales had vastly harder Vault events.

It appears to be more about the depth of players who successfully emerged from them.

---

Some Seeds May Mean Almost Nothing

This is perhaps the thing I'll be watching most closely once the actual Regional Finals begin.

There are players buried deep in both rankings whose underlying numbers look far stronger than their seed.

In the South West:

Robbie Martin — #14

Zach Quinn — #22

Joe Bagguley — #27

Logan Symons Jr — #30

Declan Cox — #32

And in Wales:

Luke Newport — #17

Llew Bevan — #26

Gavin Sterio — #27

Keenan Thomas — #29

Dean Reynolds — #30

A draw involving some of those players could look favourable on paper while being anything but.

---

What Comes Next?

For now, I'm stopping short of predicting winners.

That will come closer to the Regional Finals themselves, when I'll look at the actual draws, recent form and the strongest routes through each field.

That is where the likes of Cooper, Griffiths, Hopkins, Cake, Bevan, Martin and others can be assessed properly as potential winners rather than simply interesting statistical profiles.

But one thing is already clear.

The jump from a local Vault night to the Regional Finals represents a significant opportunity.

There is prize money to be won, but beyond that lies the prospect of appearing in the MODUS Super Series, playing in front of a much larger audience and potentially opening doors that simply aren't available on an ordinary local darts night.

For 64 players across the South West and Wales, the seven weeks of Vault 18 have got them this far.

Now the serious part begins.

Yesterday's Darts Results: 16 August 2026 Vernall Doubles Up as Taunton Produces Huge Numbers

 

Sunday 16 August was a packed day of grassroots darts, with 56 tournaments added to the Q4QS database.

And while there was action right across the country – from the PDC Challenge Tour to JDC VOLTS and a huge programme of Vault events – there was plenty happening closer to home.

Shaun Vernall won twice, Paul Gardiner came through a high-quality event in Taunton, Charlie Wiles followed a Taunton final with victory in Kentisbeare, and the junior circuit visited both Exeter and Minehead.

There were some exceptional individual performances too, headed by a remarkable 111.33 average from Daren Field at the Queens Arms in Taunton.

Vernall completes a Sunday double

It was quite a day for Shaun Vernall, who managed to win not one but two Vault events.

The first came at Matson Rugby Club in Gloucester, where 57 matches were recorded. Vernall won eight times on his way through the competition and defeated Cody Kibble 3–1 in the final.

His best recorded average was an 88.41, with James Mann producing the performance of the tournament with a 100.20.

Vernall then did it all over again at the Nags Head in Cinderford.

Another eight victories followed, this time culminating in a 3–1 final win over Mark Wellington. Vernall produced an 85.39 during the tournament before averaging 85.03 in the final itself.

Sixteen wins and two tournament victories in the same day makes that one of Sunday's standout stories.

Fireworks at the Queens Arms

The Queens Arms in Taunton produced arguably the most eye-catching collection of numbers anywhere in the grassroots results.

Daren Field fired in an extraordinary 111.33, the highest individual average recorded across Sunday's 56 tournaments.

But he wasn't alone.

C-Jay Pipe hit 100.20, Dave Fisher recorded 97.64, Charlie Wiles produced 96.97 and Andy Steed added a 93.94.

With that standard being produced, winning the tournament was never going to be straightforward.

It was Paul Gardiner who ultimately came through, defeating Charlie Wiles 3–2 in the final.

Wiles actually recorded eight wins across the event – the most of anybody – but Gardiner was the player left standing at the end.

Wiles responds with Kentisbeare victory

For Charlie Wiles, however, Sunday wasn't finished.

After reaching the final in Taunton, he headed the winner's list at the Wyndham Arms in Kentisbeare, beating Mason Doble 3–2 in another close final.

Wiles and Doble both recorded seven victories, while C-Jay Pipe again produced some excellent scoring with a tournament-best 96.97 and another 88.41.

Mason Doble hit 91.09 and Andy Steed recorded 88.98.

So Wiles' day amounted to a final and a tournament victory across two separate events – a very productive Sunday.

Portishead title for Danny Williams

There was a different sort of competition at Portishead Workmens Darts, with the Under-55 Sunday Lunch event.

Danny Williams took the title after a particularly close final against Josh Rose, eventually winning 5–4.

Williams recorded seven victories, while Rose won six and produced each of the four highest listed averages in the tournament, headed by 62.62.

JDC action in Exeter and Minehead

There was plenty of junior darts around the country as the JDC VOLTS Series continued, including two South West stops.

At The Kings Pub in Exeter, Charlie Fone came through a 49-match event, defeating George Miller 3–2 in the final.

Both players recorded six wins, while Oliver Hutchings produced the highest average of the tournament at 77.08.

Meanwhile, at the Banckers Draught in Minehead, Charlie Ely took the title, defeating Kyle Chivers 3–1 in the final.

With VOLTS events taking place around the country on Sunday, it was another busy day for the next generation.

Klose takes Challenge Tour 20

At the other end of the darting pathway, Daniel Klose won PDC Challenge Tour 20.

Klose put together eight victories and defeated Derek Coulson 5–1 in the final.

Interestingly, Coulson produced the two biggest averages of the tournament – a massive 110.68 and 110.44 – but couldn't convert that scoring into the title.

Jack Main also averaged 104.38, Kevin Burness 102.28 and Klose himself 101.55 during his winning run.

It was another reminder that the biggest average doesn't necessarily tell the story of who ultimately wins a tournament.

A Sunday packed with big averages

Daren Field's 111.33 topped the entire day's figures, ahead of Coulson's two 110+ performances.

Elsewhere, James Parkin hit 107.36, Chris Bryant-Evans produced 103.66 and 103.37, and James Mann's 100.20 at Matson completed an impressive list of performances.

There were plenty more strong tournament wins too.

Ricky King won at Swanage, Steve Sewell took the Bostin Darts Vault, Chris Hurds won in Hereford and Steve Boundy came through the CUFC Open.

But from a South West perspective, Vernall's double, the extraordinary standard at the Queens Arms and Wiles' final-and-win combination make Sunday particularly interesting.

Fifty-six tournaments, hundreds of players and yet another huge amount of grassroots darts to add to the Q4QS database.

MODUS Super Series Week 3 Preview – A Fascinating Mix of Experience, Form and Emerging Talent

 

The MODUS Super Series returns for Week 3 of Series 15, and this week's line-up offers exactly the sort of mixture that makes the competition so interesting.

There are players with considerable experience at the top level, some currently trying to fight their way back towards the PDC circuit, emerging names making progress on the Development and Challenge Tours, and others arriving with excellent form away from the PDC system.

And when I put the field through the Q4QS database, there isn't necessarily one overwhelming favourite.

Paul Krohne is the highest-ranked player in the field in the Q4QS data at No.21, but there are plenty of reasons to look further down the list – not least Dylan Slevin arriving as a brand-new Challenge Tour champion and Llew Bevan bringing an extraordinary recent winning record.

Paul Krohne Sets the Q4QS Benchmark

Krohne probably deserves to start as one of the major names to watch.

The German sits 21st in the Q4QS rankings, with a rating of 711.31 and an overall database average of 89.56. More importantly, he has demonstrated winning form.

His recent Swiss Open & Helvetia Open title came with a 91.87 tournament average, while his five most recent recorded tournaments also contain two further quarter-finals.

Short-format MODUS matches can be unforgiving, but Krohne appears to have the combination of scoring and consistency required to make a serious challenge.

Slevin Arrives as a Challenge Tour Champion

Perhaps the most timely storyline of the entire week belongs to Dylan Slevin.

The database already shows the Irishman reaching a Development Tour 19 semi-final with an 87.14 tournament average, as well as a quarter-final at Development Tour 20.

But he has subsequently gone one better on the Challenge Tour.

Slevin won Challenge Tour Event 19 on Saturday, going through seven rounds and claiming his maiden Challenge Tour title. That is significant form to take straight into a week of MODUS competition.

He's certainly one I'll be watching closely.

Don't Overlook Andy Baetens

Andy Baetens is another player whose recent record deserves attention.

His overall Q4QS database average stands at 89.03, and there is a reassuring consistency to his recent tournament numbers.

Baetens averaged 92.25 during a run through a PDC European Tour Host Nation Qualifier, 92.29 in reaching a Belgian Open quarter-final and 89.04 during a Denmark Open & Masters semi-final run.

He might not have the freshest title next to his name, but his underlying performances suggest he could be very difficult to shift.

McEwan Back on Familiar Ground

Jim McEwan immediately stands out for another reason – he knows exactly how to win the MODUS Super Series.

McEwan is already a former weekly champion, having won Week 5 of Series 14, and he comes into this appearance with some excellent numbers behind him.

He's 8-2 across his last ten matches in the Q4QS database and recently reached an Isle of Man final with a 93.65 event average.

Perhaps even more eye-catching was a 103.08 average in his most recent recorded event.

Experience of this particular environment shouldn't be underestimated either.

Llew Bevan – The Form Player?

If we're looking purely at momentum, Llew Bevan is impossible to ignore.

His Q4QS ranking of 299 doesn't tell the full story.

Bevan is currently 10-0 across his last ten recorded matches, while his recent tournament record includes multiple titles. He averaged 93.27 when winning the Towy Vault Break Round Robin 2 and has individual recorded performances of 107.36 and 109.98.

The obvious question is how that form translates to the MODUS stage against a deeper international field.

That's precisely why he's one of the most intriguing players of the week.

Cansdale Continues to Progress

Asa Cansdale provides another interesting storyline.

He's 8-2 in his last ten and recently reached the semi-finals of the ADC Winmau Championship South Event 11 with an 85.21 tournament average.

His recent results also contain an 86.04 average during a Development Tour Last 64 run, demonstrating that he can compete effectively in different environments.

This feels like another opportunity to see how far that progression has come.

Plenty More Beyond the Leading Six

And that's what makes this field particularly difficult to call.

Ciaran Forde is 7-3 across his last ten and has produced a 94.52 individual match average, while his recent calendar has included plenty of Development Tour competition.

Former Grand Slam champion José de Sousa needs little introduction. His more recent database results haven't matched the heights of his best years, but there's still evidence of his scoring ability, including a 93.94 match average during Q-School.

Mike Warburton is another fascinating one. His recent Challenge Tour results have been inconsistent, but his database contains a remarkable 110.51 match average, showing exactly what he's capable of when everything clicks.

Killian Heffernan comes in at 7-3 across his last ten, with plenty of recent Development Tour action behind him, while Darren Webster brings vast experience despite having much less recent data available in the Q4QS database.

Arne Spee completes the line-up, although there isn't currently enough information within this Q4QS export for me to make the same sort of data-backed assessment of his chances.

A Difficult Week to Call

There are arguments for experience, current form and raw numbers throughout this field.

Krohne has arguably the strongest overall Q4QS profile. Slevin has the freshest major result. Baetens brings consistency. McEwan knows how to win here. Cansdale continues to progress.

And then there's Bevan.

A player arriving 10-0 in the database after a succession of excellent performances away from the major professional circuits is exactly the type of story I enjoy following with Q4QS. Now we get to see how that form translates to the MODUS environment.

It should make Week 3 of Series 15 well worth watching.

Q4QS Weekly Spotlight: Three Players Who Caught My Eye This Week (week ending 16rh August 2026)

 

Another seven days of grassroots darts has produced plenty of candidates for the Q4QS Weekly Spotlight, but this week's final three all caught my eye for very different reasons.

For Pete Hughes, it was the sheer volume of success. Four tournament victories in five days made him almost impossible to leave out. Ricky King combined three titles with some exceptional scoring, including averages north of 100. And Owen Bates saved one of the week's biggest individual performances for Saturday, coming through a large field to win the Ilfracombe Summer Open.

As always, this isn't designed simply to reproduce the week's results or pick the three highest averages. I'm looking for the players whose performances and stories genuinely stood out to me over the previous seven days.

Pete Hughes

Player Profile

There isn't much Pete Hughes hasn't experienced on the grassroots circuit, and the sheer scale of his 2026 record illustrates just how regularly he competes.

Across 818 recorded matches, Hughes has won 698, giving him an outstanding 85.3% win rate from 124 events. Even more impressively, those appearances have already produced 51 tournament victories, alongside 11 runner-up finishes and 26 semi-finals.

His overall match average sits at 78.50, while his scoring ceiling is considerably higher. His best recorded performance is a remarkable 118.66, and his top five also contain averages of 115.62, 112.73 and 111.33.

Hughes has also consistently proved capable of beating strong opposition. His database includes five recorded victories over Joe Quiney, including a 6–0 win while averaging 92.02 and another 3–0 success with a 93.94.

This Week

Even by Hughes' standards, this was some week.

It began on Monday at The Bengeworth in Evesham, where Hughes collected the title after seven victories, beating Matt Metrovich in the final. His run included two 93.94 averages.

Twenty-four hours later he did it again.

At Bretforton Sports Club, Hughes won eight matches to take another Vault 18 title and stepped the scoring up considerably. He produced 103.66, 100.78 and 98.48 during the event before defeating Dave Honey 3–0 in the final.

Thursday brought title number three at Cue Corner in Worcester. Hughes recorded seven wins, including a 91.09 average, before beating Antony Butler 3–0 in the final.

And on Friday, it was back to Bengeworth.

Victories over George Nurdin and Mitchell Leeming took him into another final, where he edged Richard Coombes 3–2 to complete an extraordinary fourth tournament victory of the week.

Four titles in five days is a remarkable return, and made Hughes one of the simplest Weekly Spotlight selections I've had to make so far.

---

Ricky King

Player Profile

Ricky King's database sample isn't as large as Hughes', but what he's done with it is remarkable.

King has won 65 of 72 recorded matches, an exceptional 90.3% win rate, and has already converted nine of his 12 recorded tournament appearances into victories. He also enters the end of this week with a perfect 10–0 record across his last ten matches.

His overall average is 81.35, but again the headline numbers show a much higher ceiling. King has a best recorded average of 111.33, while his five best include 107.36, 104.75, 103.66 and 96.97.

He has also demonstrated that ability away from the local Vault circuit. At the Isle of Man Festival he defeated players including Pat Scurfield, Connor Bowler and Graham Jenkins, with the Bowler victory coming alongside a 104.75 average.

This Week

King's week began with victory at Swanage RBL.

He produced 103.66 against David Elm, added a 93.94 against Jordan Cluskey and then averaged 90.18 in a 3–0 final victory over Alfie Reeves.

Then came Thursday at The Kings Arms in Wallisdown, where King went even bigger.

A 107.36 average against William Young was the standout number of another title-winning run. King won eight matches during the event before defeating Tom Crocker 3–0 in the final.

Twenty-four hours later he completed the hat-trick at Sturminster Football Club.

King defeated Christopher Roberts with a 93.94 average, averaged 93.52 against Jordan Cluskey in the semi-final and then beat Callum Harrison 3–0 to take another title.

That's three titles across the week, accompanied by 107.36, 103.66, 93.94 and 93.52 performances.

For a player already winning more than 90% of his recorded matches, this was another emphatic demonstration of just how difficult Ricky King is proving to beat.

---

Owen Bates

Player Profile

Owen Bates is a very different selection from the other two.

He is already competing regularly within the professional system, with his 2026 record including Players Championship, Development Tour, European Tour qualifier and other PDC appearances.

Across 185 recorded matches, Bates has won 124, giving him a 67% win rate against what is often considerably stronger opposition than the typical grassroots field. His overall match average is an excellent 87.79, rising to a Q4QS average of 88.96.

His best recorded average is 104.50 against Stephen Burton at Players Championship 5, while he has also produced 104.01 on the Development Tour and averages above 101 against Bradley Brooks and Madars Razma.

The level of his opposition is perhaps even more revealing. Bates has beaten William O'Connor, Cameron Menzies, Adam Gawlas and Beau Greaves, while his losses include matches against Chris Dobey and Kevin Doets.

This Week

Unlike Hughes and King, Bates didn't need a collection of tournament victories to catch my eye.

He needed one very good Saturday.

The Ilfracombe Summer Open contained 127 recorded matches, and Bates came through 11 matches to lift the title.

His knockout run became increasingly impressive as the tournament progressed.

Bates averaged 99.62 to beat Clint Parkhouse, 96.97 in a 4–0 quarter-final victory over Mathew Hern and 97.62 while defeating Andy Steed 4–1 in the semi-final. He then completed the job with a 5–2 victory over Nigel Gullon.

The result also extended Bates' current recorded form to ten consecutive victories.

It's a slightly different Weekly Spotlight story, but that's exactly why I've included him. A big field, 11 victories, three averages between 96 and 100 in the decisive stages and a tournament title made the Ilfracombe run one of the standout individual performances anywhere in this week's results.

Yesterday's Darts Results South and South West – Saturday 15 August 2026

 

Saturday produced one of the busiest and strongest grassroots days of the week, with 32 tournaments added to the Q4QS database, ranging from major open competitions and local round robins to junior events, ADC Vaults and the PDC Challenge Tour.

The Q4QS graphic highlights Owen Bates after an excellent victory in Ilfracombe, but there was plenty more happening across the South and South West – including an impressive win for Chris Allen at Hangar 61 in Bristol, a strong junior event in Salisbury and another title for Ellie Harwood.

Bates takes the Ilfracombe Summer Open

One of the headline performances came from Owen Bates, who put together an excellent run to win the Ilfracombe Summer Open.

It was a substantial competition, with 127 matches recorded, and Bates came through with 11 victories before beating Nigel Gullon 5–2 in the final.

His scoring was impressive throughout. Bates produced the tournament's three highest recorded averages – 99.62, 97.62 and 96.97 – with the 99.62 coming against Clint Parkhouse.

Parkhouse himself hit 90.43, while Andy Steed recorded 88.41 during a run which saw him collect nine victories.

A very convincing tournament win from Bates.

Chris Allen comes through a strong Hangar 61 field

One result that didn't make the featured six on the graphic but certainly deserves attention was Chris Allen's victory at Hangar 61 in Bristol.

The Open Round Robin generated 93 recorded matches, with Allen eventually defeating Luke Harding 5–3 in the final.

Allen won nine matches across the competition and also produced the best average of the event, an excellent 94.82.

Harding had a strong tournament himself, recording eight victories and averages including 84.06 and 83.50, while Shoey Ayres also hit 83.50.

That's exactly what makes some of these local opens worth following. A big field and plenty of competitive darts can make winning one a serious night's work, and Allen came through it impressively.

Mason Beaven wins Salisbury Junior Super Series

There was plenty to like about the Salisbury Junior Super Series 3, where Mason Beaven emerged victorious.

Beaven won nine matches and defeated Riley Milligan 5–3 in the final, while also producing the tournament's highest recorded average of 86.65.

There was strong scoring elsewhere too, particularly from Reggie Woollard, who twice averaged 83.50 and recorded seven victories. Zachary Petty and finalist Milligan also collected seven wins apiece.

Another encouraging example of the standard coming through the junior game in the region.

Ellie Harwood wins again

Ellie Harwood also deserves another mention after winning Saturday's Open PR Round Robin.

Harwood recorded nine victories and beat Ryan Greenslade 3–1 in the final.

Greenslade actually produced the highest averages of the tournament, including a 79.11 and 76.42, but it was Harwood who came through the field and took the title.

That's another tournament victory to add to a very promising spell.

Huge numbers around the country

There were some enormous individual performances on Saturday.

The biggest came from Riley James, who produced a remarkable 111.33 average at the Surrey Youth Open.

Challenge Tour 18 also generated some serious numbers, with Steve Lennon hitting 107.79 and 102.77, Daniel Klose recording 103.05 and 100.79, and eventual champion Archie Self producing a 101.55.

Self ultimately beat Klose 5–4 in the Challenge Tour 18 final, completing a seven-win run to the title.

Timothy Jones fires in 107.36

Away from the Challenge Tour, one of Saturday's best performances came at The 9 Darter in Port Talbot.

Timothy Jones won all eight of his recorded matches and completed the job with a 3–0 victory over Steve Miller in the final.

Even more impressive was his 107.36 average in that final. Jones also recorded 96.97, 86.91 and 85.89 during the tournament.

That makes his performance one of the strongest Vault displays in Saturday's results.

Astbury dominant at Dawley

Daniel Astbury produced another extremely strong Vault performance at The Church Wicketts in Dawley.

Astbury won eight matches, defeated Callum Lester 3–0 in the final and averaged a superb 104.86 in the decider.

That wasn't an isolated performance either. He twice hit 96.97 and also recorded a 92.02 during his title run.

Plenty happening in the junior game

Saturday was a particularly busy day for youth darts.

Alongside Mason Beaven's Salisbury victory, Charlie Lowin won the JDC VOLTS event at Bostin Darts, producing a 91.09 along the way. George Folly won at Bushey, George Jones took the Glanyrafon Arms event and Michael Solloway was victorious at The Bullseye Bar in Lichfield.

And at the Surrey Youth Open, while Riley James produced that spectacular 111.33, it was James Butler who eventually came through the huge event to take the title.

Another packed Saturday

There was plenty more beyond the headline performances.

Paul Hogan won at Burghfield with a 98.02 in the final, Dai Lewis took the Bordon Vault, Eddie Price won at Shrewsbury and Aaron Beeney was successful at Nambucca.

Stephen Cake also won a rearranged Vault at The Top Club, with both Cake and Creed Jenkins recording 100.20 averages.

But from a Q4QS/South West perspective, Owen Bates' Ilfracombe victory and Chris Allen's success at Hangar 61 are probably the two performances I'd put right at the heart of Saturday's roundup.

Bates combined a tournament victory with consistently excellent scoring, while Allen negotiated a sizeable, competitive Hangar 61 event and produced a 94.82 along the way.

Another very strong Saturday of grassroots darts.

Who Will Win a PDC Tour Card? Simulating the 2026 Challenge Tour Run-In 50,000 Times

Five events remain. Two Tour Cards are available. And, theoretically at least, there is still £15,000 for one player to win.

The 2026 PDC Challenge Tour is approaching its conclusion with Derek Coulson and Joe Hunt occupying the two positions everybody wants.

But are they home?

Not quite.

With £3,000 available to each tournament winner, somebody could still make a dramatic late charge. Tommy Morris, Tommy Lishman, Daniel Klose, Daniel Ayres and Henry Coates all remain within mathematical striking distance, while several players further back are performing considerably better than their Challenge Tour earnings might suggest.

So rather than simply looking at the current table, I decided to simulate the final five tournaments 50,000 times.

The question is simple:

If we replayed the Challenge Tour run-in 50,000 times, who would actually win the two Tour Cards?

Where things stand

Derek Coulson currently leads the Challenge Tour Order of Merit with £13,150, just £200 ahead of Joe Hunt on £12,950.

The important number, however, is the gap behind them.

Tommy Morris is third on £9,000, Tommy Lishman fourth on £8,350 and Daniel Klose fifth on £7,800. Daniel Ayres has £6,950 and Henry Coates £6,650.

The Challenge Tour awards Tour Cards to the top two, while the top three qualify for the World Championship and the Order of Merit winner also earns a Grand Slam place.

So there is plenty more at stake than simply finishing first.

But with only five events remaining, time is rapidly becoming the chasing pack's biggest enemy.

How the simulation works

Before looking at the results, this needs some explanation.

This isn't simply a random distribution of prize money.

I used the supplied entry list as the field, meaning players appearing in the wider PDC data who aren't actually entered aren't allowed to magically appear in our simulated tournaments.

Player strength is primarily based on their underlying performance data, with PDC/Q4QS performance level and match averages carrying most of the weight, alongside a smaller recent-form component.

Each event is then independently drawn and simulated as a knockout tournament. Prize money is awarded according to finishing position and added to the player's existing Challenge Tour total.

Then we do it again.

And again.

Until we've completed 50,000 different versions of the final five events.

There are important limitations.

A model can't know who wakes up feeling brilliant on Saturday morning. It can't perfectly identify a player who has suddenly improved. Short-format darts contains enormous variance, and an open draw can transform somebody's weekend.

Nor do I want a brilliant performance outside the PDC to carry exactly the same weight as repeatedly performing against Tour Card holders.

The percentages below are therefore estimates, not forecasts carved in stone.

And that's partly what makes the results interesting.

The result: Coulson and Hunt are very difficult to catch

Player	Current CT £	Tour Card Chance	Win OoM	Top 3
Derek Coulson	£13,150	98.0%	51.3%	100.0%
Joe Hunt	£12,950	97.2%	46.9%	100.0%
Tommy Morris	£9,000	1.8%	0.8%	36.4%
Daniel Klose	£7,800	1.2%	0.4%	17.3%
Tommy Lishman	£8,350	1.0%	0.4%	18.1%
Daniel Ayres	£6,950	0.4%	0.2%	9.6%
Henry Coates	£6,650	0.2%	0.1%	6.6%
Nathan Potter	£5,850	0.04%	0.01%	2.0%
Aden Kirk	£6,100	0.04%	0.02%	1.9%
Steve Lennon	£5,400	0.02%	0.01%	1.5%

The headline couldn't really be clearer.

Derek Coulson – 98.0%

Joe Hunt – 97.2%

The model thinks the current top two retain the Tour Cards in the overwhelming majority of outcomes.

That doesn't mean they're mathematically safe.

It means somebody now needs to do something exceptional to stop them.

Coulson v Hunt could be the real battle

Perhaps the more interesting race isn't second against third.

It's first against second.

Despite Coulson leading Hunt by only £200, the simulation gives him a 51.3% chance of winning the Order of Merit, compared with Hunt's 46.9%.

That's almost a coin toss.

And the two arrive at this point from rather different directions.

Coulson remains the highest-rated Challenge Tour entrant in my Q4QS data, with a 724.59 rating and 91.19 average. He's shown an enormous ceiling on the ProTour too, including a Players Championship run averaging 102.10 and individual wins over Niko Springer and Tom Sykes at 98.39 and 106.59 respectively.

His immediate results haven't been nearly as strong, though: he's just 3-7 across his latest ten recorded matches.

Hunt is the opposite.

He's 10-0 in the latest Q4QS sample, having continued to win away from the Challenge Tour.

So while the Tour Card race looks increasingly settled, the race to actually win the Challenge Tour remains fascinating.

Tommy Morris – the most likely spoiler

If either leader is going to be caught, Tommy Morris remains the obvious candidate.

But his updated probability demonstrates just how difficult the task has become.

Tour Card chance: 1.8%

Top-three chance: 36.4%

Morris starts £3,950 behind Hunt.

Even winning the next event would take him to £12,000 – still £950 below Hunt's current total before Hunt himself adds anything.

That's why Morris can have more than a one-in-three chance of finishing in the top three, but less than a 2% chance of getting into the top two.

The gap between second and third is now the defining feature of this race.

Daniel Klose – the model's next challenger

Interestingly, Klose comes out marginally ahead of Lishman for a Tour Card despite starting £550 further behind.

That's where performance data begins to make a difference.

Klose has just won a PDC Europe Next Gen event, averaging 92.28 across the tournament, and stands 8-2 across his latest ten matches in the database.

His chances are:

1.2% Tour Card

17.3% Top Three

The card probability is small.

But a roughly one-in-six chance of breaking into the World Championship positions makes Klose's final weekend very significant indeed.

Tommy Lishman – money keeps him firmly involved

Lishman starts fourth on £8,350 and remains very much part of the chasing group.

The simulation gives him:

1.0% Tour Card

18.1% Top Three

In fact, he's marginally more likely than Klose to finish in the top three because of that existing £550 advantage.

Lishman has also gained Players Championship experience this year, including a win over Danny Noppert.

Again, the Tour Card probably requires something spectacular.

The World Championship race is another matter entirely.

Henry Coates – and this time the model notices him

This is one of the biggest differences from the first model.

Previously, Coates' larger historical sample dragged his probability down despite what we've seen recently.

The revised model still doesn't make him likely to catch Coulson or Hunt – the £6,300 gap to Hunt is simply enormous with five tournaments remaining – but his current performance profile now gives him:

0.24% Tour Card

6.6% Top Three

That's roughly one Tour Card in every 400 simulated run-ins.

Small?

Absolutely.

But not zero.

And Coates might be the player for whom the percentage itself matters least.

He recently won Players Championship 25, averaging 98.34 for the event and defeating Damon Heta 8-4 in the final with a 104.88 average.

He then reached the Development Tour 20 final and is 9-1 in his latest ten in the database.

So the question remains:

Are we looking at the same Henry Coates who generated the older data, or a player who has suddenly jumped to another level?

Statistical models are deliberately reluctant to overreact to one tournament.

Sometimes that's a strength.

Sometimes it means they're the last to notice a breakthrough.

Coates gives us five events to find out.

Daniel Ayres – ProTour performances make him dangerous

Ayres is another player whose current position perhaps doesn't tell the whole story.

He sits sixth with £6,950, but he's second among the entrants in the Q4QS performance ranking with a rating of 706.48 and an 89.52 average.

His recent performances include a 92.37 tournament average at Players Championship 26 and some excellent darts against strong opposition.

The model gives him a 0.4% Tour Card chance and 9.6% chance of reaching the top three.

Again, it's the existing deficit rather than playing ability that is killing his Tour Card probability.

What happened to Jack Aldridge?

This is another revealing result.

In the six-event model, Aldridge emerged as a fascinating statistical bolter.

With only five tournaments remaining?

His Tour Card chance collapses to around 0.01%.

That's not because the model suddenly thinks Aldridge isn't good enough.

Quite the opposite.

He remains one of the strongest underlying performers in the field and has produced a 100.64 match average in the Q4QS data.

The problem is that he starts on only £4,400.

One fewer tournament is particularly damaging to somebody trying to come from that far behind.

Aldridge is a perfect example of the difference between:

"good enough to challenge"

and

"still having enough time to challenge."

With six tournaments, there was a path.

With five, it has become extraordinarily narrow.

Does ProTour experience matter?

This is something I'm particularly interested in.

Hunt, Coates, Coulson, Ayres, Lishman and several others have all experienced Players Championship competition this year.

And they're not simply making up numbers.

Coulson has averaged over 100 across a Players Championship run.

Coates has actually won one.

Ayres has produced strong performances there.

Steve Lennon arrived at his most recent Players Championship averaging 99.41 despite eventually losing to Ayres.

Does regularly facing Tour Card opposition make somebody more likely to handle a Challenge Tour run-in?

The database can't prove that.

But I certainly wouldn't ignore it.

And what about form outside the PDC?

This needs another caveat.

The Q4QS database contains performances from far beyond the Challenge Tour.

ADC, WDF, UKDA and other competitions can tell us that somebody is winning, scoring well and arriving with confidence.

Simon Stevenson, for example, is 8-2 recently and has won an event averaging 92.31.

Steve Lennon is 7-3, recently won an ADC Winmau Championship North event averaging 89.76 and subsequently averaged 99.41 at Players Championship 26.

That's useful evidence.

But I don't believe beating strong opposition outside the PDC should automatically be treated exactly the same as doing it on the ProTour.

That's why wider form is an adjustment, rather than the primary driver of the model.

Some players have another route

There's also something important this simulation deliberately doesn't attempt to predict.

Some Challenge Tour competitors are eligible for the Development Tour and could potentially earn a Tour Card through that route instead.

That matters particularly when discussing players such as Coates.

But I'm keeping the question deliberately narrow.

These probabilities mean:

Chance of winning one of the two Tour Cards through the Challenge Tour.

They are not the probability that a player will hold a Tour Card next season by any available method.

Development Tour qualification and other routes are separate.

The World Championship race may be much more interesting

The top two battle increasingly looks like Coulson and Hunt.

The top-three race doesn't.

Look again at the simulation:

Tommy Morris – 36.4%

Tommy Lishman – 18.1%

Daniel Klose – 17.3%

Daniel Ayres – 9.6%

Henry Coates – 6.6%

Those are much more interesting numbers.

So even if Coulson and Hunt prove impossible to catch, there remains an enormous battle immediately behind them.

The Challenge Tour's top three qualify for the World Championship.

Suddenly every £100, £250 and £350 becomes important.

One deep run could be worth far more than simply the prize money won that day.

Five tournaments and £15,000 – can the impossible happen?

Of course.

This is darts.

A player can win an event from almost anywhere in the draw.

Someone could win two tournaments and suddenly add £6,000.

Three titles would be £9,000.

And if one of the leaders suffered five poor tournaments, the entire picture could change.

But the simulation tells us how unusual that combination of events would need to be.

Coulson takes a Tour Card in 98.0% of our simulated endings.

Hunt does it in 97.2%.

Between them, they have built the most valuable commodity possible heading into the final Challenge Tour block:

room for a bad day.

Everyone chasing them has almost none.

My prediction

After correcting the number of remaining tournaments and running the entire model again, I'm even more confident in the same two names.

🥇 Derek Coulson

🥈 Joe Hunt

But I'm not convinced that's where the most interesting action will be.

Coulson v Hunt for first place is almost 50/50.

Morris, Lishman and Klose are involved in a fascinating battle behind them.

Ayres' underlying standard makes him dangerous.

And Coates is the wildcard – a player whose recent ProTour performances suggest he could be considerably better right now than a season-long model can comfortably recognise.

Five events remain.

A maximum £15,000 is still available.

The simulation says Coulson and Hunt.

Now we get to find out whether darts agrees.