There is an accepted wisdom in darts that the standard keeps getting better.
The field is deeper. Young players arrive seemingly ready for the professional game. More players appear capable of producing huge averages, and we're regularly told that surviving on tour is harder than ever.
But is the standard of professional darts actually improving?
I decided to look at the numbers.
Using DartConnect player averages I'd collected for every year from 2018 to 2026, I analysed the top 100 players and divided them into five groups: 1–20, 21–40, 41–60, 61–80 and 81–100.
That allowed me to investigate two questions.
Has the standard at the very top improved?
And perhaps more importantly:
Has the game become deeper further down the professional ranks?
The results surprised me.
Nine years of professional darts
The table below shows the average three-dart scoring average within each group of 20 players.
| Year | 1–20 | 21–40 | 41–60 | 61–80 | 81–100 | Top 100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 96.79 | 94.21 | 93.10 | 92.27 | 91.26 | 93.55 |
| 2019 | 96.28 | 93.81 | 92.65 | 91.22 | 89.72 | 92.73 |
| 2020 | 96.56 | 93.93 | 92.44 | 91.04 | 89.91 | 92.78 |
| 2021 | 96.99 | 94.24 | 92.24 | 91.27 | 90.13 | 92.97 |
| 2022 | 97.08 | 93.95 | 92.49 | 91.64 | 90.58 | 93.15 |
| 2023 | 96.88 | 94.17 | 92.61 | 91.43 | 90.30 | 93.08 |
| 2024 | 96.50 | 94.26 | 92.20 | 90.84 | 90.02 | 92.76 |
| 2025 | 96.99 | 93.68 | 92.00 | 90.94 | 90.08 | 92.74 |
| 2026 | 96.52 | 93.72 | 92.23 | 91.02 | 90.03 | 92.70 |
Source: DartConnect player averages collected for the Q4QS study. Figures represent the average within each ranking group. The 2026 figures cover the season to date and are not yet final. The 2018 overall figure remains subject to a minor rounding/calculation check.
At the top, virtually nothing has changed
This is the clearest finding.
In 2018, the leading 20 players averaged 96.79.
In 2026, that figure stands at 96.52.
Across nine seasons, the highest Top-20 figure was 97.08 in 2022, while the lowest was 96.28 in 2019.
The entire range is just 0.80 points.
Even more revealing is the trend.
A simple linear trend across the nine seasons produces an increase of approximately 0.014 points per year.
In practical terms, the elite scoring level has been remarkably flat.
Of course, the players have changed.
We've watched established stars decline, new stars emerge and exceptional talents announce themselves on the professional stage.
But that doesn't necessarily mean the collective standard at the top has increased.
A new generation replaces an older one. Different names occupy the leading positions, yet the averages they collectively produce remain almost identical.
The individuals change. The level they collectively produce barely does.
But hasn't the game become much deeper?
This was the part I expected might tell a different story.
Perhaps there's a natural ceiling at the top.
After all, once players are regularly averaging around 97, making significant improvements becomes increasingly difficult.
If that's the case, maybe the real progress in professional darts is happening further down the rankings.
Perhaps the players ranked 40th, 60th, 80th and 100th are considerably stronger than their equivalents from previous generations.
That would support the argument that professional darts has become deeper, even if the very best players haven't improved much.
But again, the evidence isn't particularly convincing.
Look at positions 81–100.
| Year | Average |
|---|---|
| 2019 | 89.72 |
| 2020 | 89.91 |
| 2021 | 90.13 |
| 2022 | 90.58 |
| 2023 | 90.30 |
| 2024 | 90.02 |
| 2025 | 90.08 |
| 2026 | 90.03 |
There was some improvement into the early 2020s, culminating in 90.58 in 2022.
But it didn't continue.
By 2026, the figure had returned to 90.03.
Compared with 2019, that's an improvement of just 0.31 points.
It's an improvement, certainly, but hardly the dramatic increase in depth we might have expected.
And the middle groups tell a similar story.
There are fluctuations between seasons, but no obvious sustained upward movement.
The standard required to feature among the leading 100 players appears to have remained remarkably consistent.
The statistic that surprised me most
Now look at the entire Top 100.
In 2019, the average was 92.73.
In 2026, it stands at 92.70.
Seven years of development, new talent, emerging stars and arguments about ever-improving standards have produced a difference of:
0.03 points.
Three hundredths of a point.
That's not evidence of a rapidly improving professional game.
It's evidence of extraordinary stability.
In fact, the highest Top-100 figure after 2018 came in 2022 at 93.15.
Since then, the figures have been:
2023: 93.08
2024: 92.76
2025: 92.74
2026: 92.70
I wouldn't use those numbers to argue that professional darts is getting worse.
The changes are too small, and seasonal variations can influence the results.
But equally, it's difficult to argue that these figures demonstrate continuous improvement.
If the professional game really is becoming stronger every year, that improvement isn't showing up clearly in these scoring averages.
Perhaps we're confusing new talent with a higher standard
I think this might explain some of the perception.
When an exceptional new player arrives, it's natural to feel we're witnessing something unprecedented.
A teenager starts beating established professionals. A relatively unknown player suddenly produces a string of 100-plus averages. Another newcomer qualifies for major televised events.
It creates the impression that the standard must be rising.
And in some respects, perhaps it is.
But professional darts has continually produced exceptional players.
One generation replaces another.
A new group averaging around 97 replaces an older group averaging around 97.
That renewal is important. It brings fresh rivalries, new personalities and greater excitement.
But renewal isn't necessarily improvement.
The arrival of outstanding young players doesn't automatically mean that the overall standard of professional darts has increased.
It might simply mean that the next generation is reaching a level that previous generations had already established.
And based on these figures, the scoring standard required to occupy the upper reaches of professional darts appears remarkably resistant to change.
So, is professional darts actually getting better?
On this particular measure, not obviously.
That's not the same as saying nothing in darts has improved.
Three-dart averages don't tell the whole story.
Finishing ability, performance under pressure, consistency across longer matches, tournament structures and the strength of individual opponents could all provide different perspectives.
There's also a difference between the scoring standard of the best players and the difficulty of earning a living on the professional circuit.
Those are not necessarily the same thing.
But three-dart average remains one of the fundamental measures we use when discussing playing standards.
And across nine seasons, I can't find convincing evidence here of a professional game whose scoring level is continually increasing.
The Top 20 hasn't meaningfully moved.
The middle hasn't dramatically moved.
The bottom of the Top 100 hasn't dramatically moved.
And from 2019 to 2026, the collective Top-100 average has changed by just three hundredths of a point.
Perhaps the most important conclusion isn't that professional darts has stopped improving.
It's that we shouldn't assume improvement simply because the sport keeps producing exciting new players.
The figures need to demonstrate it.
Which leaves me with a different question.
What if the improvement is happening somewhere else?
Perhaps we're looking too high up the darting pyramid.
Maybe by the time players reach the professional game, we're already seeing something close to the established scoring level required to compete there.
The real improvement might be taking place before players arrive.
Are young players reaching professional standards earlier?
Are the players immediately below the professional circuit becoming stronger?
And are we seeing greater improvements in areas of darts where opportunities and participation have developed considerably over recent years?
That's what I want to investigate next.
I'll apply the same approach to three other areas of the PDC system:
Development Tour
Women's Series
Challenge Tour
And rather than wait for the results and construct a theory afterwards, I'm going to make my predictions now.
That way, when the figures are analysed, we'll be able to see whether my expectations were justified.
Prediction 1: Development Tour will show significant improvement
This is where I expect the professional game's future strength to become visible.
My prediction is that younger players are reaching a high standard earlier than previous generations.
With established youth pathways and increasing opportunities to gain competitive experience, it seems reasonable to expect improvements in the strength of the Development Tour.
But I'm particularly interested in what happens further down the rankings.
We already know exceptional young players can produce outstanding averages.
The question is whether the 40th, 60th, 80th and 100th strongest players are becoming significantly better.
My prediction: The Development Tour will show a much clearer upward trend than the professional game, particularly outside the leading 20.
Prediction 2: Women's Series will show the biggest improvement
This is my strongest prediction.
I'm not particularly interested in establishing whether the very best female players can produce elite numbers.
We already know there are outstanding players at the top of the women's game.
What interests me is depth.
What's happened to the standard at 20th, 40th, 60th and 100th?
Has the gap between the leading players and the rest of the field narrowed?
And has the expansion of competitive opportunities helped raise the standard across a broader group of players?
My expectation is that it has.
My prediction: The Women's Series will show the greatest improvement of the four tours, particularly further down the rankings.
This is the result I'm most interested in seeing.
Prediction 3: Challenge Tour will improve, but by less
This is the one I'm less certain about.
The Challenge Tour already attracts experienced players, including those who have previously competed at professional level.
Many are trying to regain Tour Cards, while others are attempting to establish themselves at a higher level.
Because the field already contains so much experience, there may be less room for dramatic improvement.
Nevertheless, I'd still expect some upward movement.
My prediction: The Challenge Tour will show improvement, but less than the Development Tour and Women's Series.
And I might be completely wrong.
That's part of the experiment.
Let the numbers decide
The predictions are now on the record before I've analysed those three datasets.
Perhaps all three tours will show substantial improvement.
Perhaps one will surprise us.
Or perhaps the remarkable stability we've seen in the professional game will turn out to be a feature of competitive darts more generally.
I don't know yet.
And that's what makes this worth investigating.
Rather than starting with a conclusion and searching for figures to support it, I want to see where the data takes us.
For the professional game, however, the first result is in.
Nine years of DartConnect averages suggest that despite our perception of an ever-improving sport, the scoring standard at the top of professional darts has barely changed at all.
The names have changed.
The generations have changed.
But the numbers are remarkably familiar.
Next in the Q4QS Darts Standards Study: Has the Development Tour actually got stronger?
Q4QS Darts Standards Study — Part One
Analysis based on DartConnect seasonal player averages collected between 2018 and 2026. The study examines scoring averages and does not attempt to measure every aspect of playing ability. The 2026 season remains incomplete.
