A recent PDC Challenge Tour champion, players fresh from ADC National Finals Weekend and some familiar rivalries make Week 12 of the MODUS Super Series an interesting prospect.
The MODUS Super Series returns for Week 12, and looking through the Q4QS database, there are several reasons why this could be a particularly competitive week.
Joe Hunt arrives with an impressive recent record, Archie Self has been collecting titles, Jack Aldridge has produced some excellent Challenge Tour performances, and Tommy Lishman has already demonstrated that he can beat some of the strongest players in the field.
There are also players arriving directly from the ADC National Finals Weekend, where several have enjoyed good runs.
What interests me most is the mixture of experience and recent form. Some have been competing regularly on the PDC Challenge Tour, others have been producing excellent performances in the ADC Vault competitions, and there are players who have been making progress through the Development Tour.
As usual, I've been looking at the available Q4QS figures to see what they might tell us about the week ahead.
Joe Hunt – The Man to Beat?
If we were choosing a favourite purely on recent results, Joe Hunt would have a very strong case.
He is the highest-ranked player in the supplied field, sitting at number 34 in the Q4QS rankings with an overall average of 88.97.
But it is his recent Challenge Tour form that really stands out.
Hunt won PDC Challenge Tour Event 23, winning all eight matches and averaging 95.71 across the tournament.
That is an exceptional standard to maintain over an entire event.
Among his victories were a 5-1 win over Jack Tweddell with a 99.48 average, a 5-3 victory over Harrison Leigh averaging 98.61, and a particularly interesting 5-4 win over Jack Aldridge, in which Hunt averaged 100.87.
He followed that success with another good run on the Challenge Tour and recently reached the final of a money-in, money-out competition during ADC National Finals Weekend.
There he averaged 87.87 across eight matches before losing to Roger Crook.
His last ten recorded matches show nine victories and just one defeat.
Of course, the MODUS format presents a different challenge. Producing one outstanding tournament is impressive, but sustaining a high standard across several days is another matter.
Nevertheless, Hunt arrives with plenty of reasons to feel confident.
Archie Self – Perhaps the Form Player
While Hunt's Challenge Tour victory is difficult to ignore, Archie Self has arguably been just as impressive in recent weeks.
Self won two events at the England Masters & Classic, averaging 92.49 and 91.50 respectively.
He also recorded a 96.61 tournament average in another event, despite eventually losing to Jarred Cole.
His recent results include a Vault victory at the Crucible Sports and Social Club in Newbury, where he averaged 88.00.
And during ADC National Finals Weekend, he reached the semi-finals of the UK & Ireland Classic, averaging 93.59 before losing to eventual champion Lewis Cook.
That is a substantial body of good form.
There is also an interesting connection with another Week 12 player.
Self defeated Nathan Potter in the semi-finals of PDC Development Tour Event 22, ending a run in which Potter had averaged 88.68.
Both now have another opportunity to test themselves against each other.
With nine wins in his last ten recorded matches, Self certainly deserves to be considered among the leading contenders.
Jack Aldridge – The Numbers Are Impressive
One player whose figures particularly caught my attention was Jack Aldridge.
His overall Q4QS average stands at 90.82, the highest of the players with established averages in this week's supplied field.
That doesn't necessarily make him the favourite, but it does suggest a player who is capable of producing a consistently high scoring standard.
Aldridge recently reached a PDC Challenge Tour final, losing to Patrik Williams after six victories.
He had previously reached the quarter-finals of Challenge Tour Event 23, where Joe Hunt defeated him.
Interestingly, the database also records Aldridge beating Hunt during their more recent Challenge Tour involvement.
So there is already some history between two of the strongest players in the competition.
Aldridge's most recent appearance came in a World Championship qualifier, where he averaged 93.84 across three matches before losing to Carl Wilson.
He has won eight of his last ten recorded matches.
If he can maintain something close to his overall average, he should be a difficult opponent throughout the week.
Tommy Lishman – A Player Who Can Beat Anybody
Tommy Lishman is another player who could have a major say.
Ranked 49 in the Q4QS database, Lishman has an overall average of 88.06.
His recent results include reaching the last 32 of a PDC Players Championship event, where he averaged 91.78 across four matches.
One of his most notable victories was a 6-5 win over Joe Hunt, with Lishman averaging 93.66.
That result is particularly relevant when assessing this week's field.
It demonstrates that Lishman is capable of matching one of the leading contenders in a competitive environment.
His recent form is a little less convincing than some of the others, with five wins and five defeats in his last ten recorded matches.
But I wouldn't read too much into that without considering the standard of opposition.
Players competing regularly at a high level are naturally going to encounter stronger opponents.
Lishman might not have the same winning momentum as Hunt or Self, but his scoring ability makes him a genuine threat.
Nathan Potter – Development Tour Form Worth Watching
Nathan Potter arrives with some strong recent Development Tour performances.
He reached the semi-finals of Event 22, winning seven matches and averaging 88.68 before losing to Archie Self.
During that run he defeated Kaya Baysal 5-3 with a 99.62 average.
Potter also competed in the World Youth Championship Finals, where he was eliminated by Arthur Allston.
His overall Q4QS average is 86.15, with seven victories in his last ten recorded matches.
I think Potter is one of the more interesting players in the field.
He has demonstrated that he can put together a long run against strong opposition, and his Development Tour performances suggest that his scoring is capable of reaching a considerably higher level than his overall average.
The question is whether he can reproduce that form consistently throughout the MODUS week.
Graham Usher – Plenty of Experience and Recent Success
Graham Usher is another player who arrives with a good recent record.
He won an event at the British Open & Classic, averaging 86.00 across eight victories.
He also reached another final during that competition, losing to Harry Lane.
His recent results include victories over Harrison Leigh, Jack Nankervis and Adam Winspear.
Usher has won eight of his last ten recorded matches, although his most recent appearance at ADC National Finals Weekend ended in defeat to Jack Walker.
His overall average of 85.22 might place him slightly behind the leading names statistically, but there is plenty of evidence that he can compete with them.
I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see him involved in the latter stages of the week.
Robbie Martin and Stuart Dutton – The ADC Connection
Two other players worth discussing are Robbie Martin and Stuart Dutton.
Martin has been enjoying an excellent run of results around the South and South West.
He won a Vault event at Dorchester Trinity Club with a 91.29 tournament average, reached the semi-finals at Stratford Social Club in Salisbury, and collected another title at The Newtown in Poole.
He also reached the final at St Ives Club in St Leonards.
Most recently, Martin made the quarter-finals of the UK & Ireland Classic, averaging 91.49 before losing to Lewis Cook.
That is a very encouraging result against a strong national field.
Dutton has also been playing well.
He won a Vault event at Danny's Bar in Banbury, averaging 89.76, and reached finals at both Bradmoor Farm and Riverside Club in Wycombe.
His recent record includes a 95.69 average in a victory over Chris Howse.
He reached the last 32 of the UK & Ireland Classic, where Sean McKeon ended his run.
Both players have been regularly competing in knockout and round-robin events, and both have demonstrated the ability to maintain good averages across a tournament.
That could prove useful in the MODUS environment.
Ricardo Ulrich, Graham Hall and Grant Sampson
The remaining players also bring some interesting backgrounds to the competition.
Ricardo Ulrich has been competing on the PDC Challenge Tour, reaching the quarter-finals of Event 20 with an 86.55 tournament average.
His recent results include victories over Harry Ward, Ryan O'Connor, Simon Stevenson and Jack Tweddell.
He also competed in a European Tour host-nation qualifier, averaging 90.31 in his most recent appearance before losing to Richard Veenstra.
Ulrich's overall Q4QS average of 84.92 puts him within reach of several players above him in the rankings.
Graham Hall has been competing on the Challenge Tour as well as in domestic competitions.
He recently reached a final at the Batchley Tuesday Open and made the last 32 of the UK & Ireland Classic, where he lost to Johnny Haines.
His overall Q4QS average is 84.72, although some of his recent domestic tournament figures have been lower.
That makes him a difficult player to assess, but certainly not one to dismiss.
Grant Sampson is the player for whom the database provides the least evidence.
His recorded appearances come from European Q-School, where he produced tournament averages of 74.51, 81.29 and 77.48.
He has wins over Stefan Schmitz and Leon Ebmeier in the available records.
With only three events represented in his Q4QS profile, I wouldn't want to draw too many conclusions about his overall standard.
And that is worth remembering when looking at statistics. A lack of data doesn't necessarily mean a lack of ability.
David O'Hara is also named in the supplied entry information, but without a matched Q4QS statistical profile. Rather than invent a form assessment, I'll leave him as an unknown quantity for now.
What Will Decide Week 12?
Looking at the overall averages, the leading players are reasonably close.
Jack Aldridge heads the established averages at 90.82, followed by Joe Hunt at 88.97 and Tommy Lishman at 88.06.
Archie Self, Nathan Potter, Graham Usher and Robbie Martin are all capable of producing tournament averages well above their overall figures.
That suggests we could see some excellent darts.
But the MODUS Super Series is not simply about producing one outstanding performance.
Players have to return to the board repeatedly, recover from defeats, and manage the pressure of a league table where every leg can become important.
A player who averages 95 in one match and 75 in the next may find himself struggling against somebody who consistently produces something in the mid-to-high 80s.
That is one of the things I enjoy about this format.
It rewards consistency, but still leaves room for somebody to find their best game at exactly the right moment.
Q4QS Six to Follow
After examining the available performances, these would be my six selections for Week 12.
Joe Hunt – The highest-ranked player in the supplied field, fresh from a Challenge Tour title with a 95.71 tournament average.
Archie Self – Multiple recent titles, excellent scoring figures and a semi-final appearance at the UK & Ireland Classic.
Jack Aldridge – The highest established overall average in the field at 90.82, with recent Challenge Tour final experience.
Tommy Lishman – Proven scoring ability at Players Championship level and a previous victory over Joe Hunt.
Nathan Potter – A Development Tour semi-finalist capable of producing averages approaching 100.
Robbie Martin – My slightly less obvious selection, with excellent Vault form and a 91.49 average at the UK & Ireland Classic.
Graham Usher and Stuart Dutton would be very close to making that list.
My Prediction
If I had to choose one player based purely on the available figures, I would probably lean towards Joe Hunt.
Winning a Challenge Tour event with a 95.71 average is difficult to ignore, particularly when followed by another final during ADC National Finals Weekend.
But Archie Self's recent consistency is equally impressive, and Jack Aldridge has the overall scoring figures to challenge both.
I also think Tommy Lishman could be a dangerous opponent if he finds the form he showed on the Players Championship circuit.
The interesting thing is that this doesn't look like a week where one player stands miles ahead of the others.
There are several players capable of winning, and I suspect the opening group matches will tell us quite a lot about who has settled into the format.
I'll be following the results through the week, particularly to see whether the recent Challenge Tour and ADC form carries over into the MODUS Super Series.
Q4QS will be keeping an eye on Week 12 as the action unfolds, with results and performances helping to build the picture of who is emerging as the strongest contender.
This preview uses the Q4QS Database and the supplied Week 12 player export. Rankings, averages and form refer to recorded performances and are statistical indicators rather than guarantees of future results.
