Just four events remain in the 2026 PDC Challenge Tour, and the race for the two Tour Cards is approaching its conclusion.
Derek Coulson leads the Order of Merit on £15,150, Joe Hunt sits second on £13,050 and Daniel Klose is chasing on £10,800.
But with £3,000 available to the winner of each of the final four events, how secure are those positions really?
I decided to run the final Challenge Tour weekend 50,000 times.
How the simulation works
This isn't simply a case of randomly selecting winners.
I used the current Q4QS data for the 166 players in the final-weekend entry field, including playing strength, averages and recent form.
Each of the four remaining tournaments was then played out as a knockout event, with fresh draws and match results generated each time.
The actual 2026 Challenge Tour prize structure was applied:
Winner – £3,000
Runner-up – £2,000
Semi-final – £1,000
Quarter-final – £750
Last 16 – £350
Last 32 – £250
Last 64 – £100
That whole four-event finish was repeated 50,000 times.
These are simulation estimates rather than predictions of exactly what will happen. Darts is far too volatile for that. What they do show is how the current money advantage and the relative strength of the field combine.
The Tour Card probabilities
| Player | Current Prize Money | Finish 1st | Finish Top 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Coulson | £15,150 | 86.09% | 99.59% |
| Joe Hunt | £13,050 | 11.46% | 81.45% |
| Daniel Klose | £10,800 | 2.34% | 16.98% |
| Tommy Morris | £9,100 | 0.05% | 0.79% |
| Tommy Lishman | £8,350 | 0.03% | 0.59% |
| Daniel Ayres | £7,300 | 0.03% | 0.46% |
| Henry Coates | £6,900 | less than 0.01% | 0.05% |
| Aden Kirk | £6,350 | less than 0.01% | 0.03% |
Below that point, the simulation produced only extremely occasional Tour Card finishes.
Derek Coulson is almost there
The numbers underline just how powerful Coulson's £15,150 starting position is.
He finished inside the Top 2 in 99.59% of the 50,000 simulations.
More remarkably, he finished the season at number one in 86.09% of them.
Coulson does not need to dominate the final weekend. His previous results have already given him enough of a cushion that it requires a fairly unusual combination of results to remove him from the top two.
His average finishing position across all 50,000 runs was just 1.14.
In simple terms, the first Tour Card is very close to being decided.
Joe Hunt still has work to do
Hunt's position is very strong, but considerably less secure than Coulson's.
He took a Tour Card in 81.45% of simulations.
That means there was still roughly a one-in-five chance that somebody displaced him from the Top 2.
Hunt also topped the final Order of Merit in 11.46% of runs.
His average finishing position was 2.08, which is almost exactly where he currently sits.
The most important question for Hunt is therefore probably not whether he can catch Coulson.
It is whether he can keep Klose behind him.
Daniel Klose is the genuine danger
This is where the simulation gets particularly interesting.
Klose currently trails Hunt by £2,250, but his performances make him a serious threat during a four-event weekend.
Klose claimed a Tour Card in 16.98% of simulations.
That is approximately one in six.
He also finished top of the entire Challenge Tour Order of Merit in 2.34% of runs.
His average projected finishing position was 3.03.
So while the current table puts Klose third, the Q4QS model doesn't regard second place as remotely impossible.
One big tournament from Klose combined with an early Hunt exit could change the situation very quickly.
And with four separate tournaments available, there are several opportunities for that swing to happen.
Then comes the big gap
The chances fall dramatically after the leading three.
Tommy Morris started the weekend fourth on £9,100 but reached the Top 2 in only 0.79% of simulations.
Tommy Lishman was at 0.59%, with Daniel Ayres at 0.46%.
Those aren't zero.
Four tournaments can produce extraordinary sequences of results.
But players in this group essentially require both a huge weekend of their own and serious problems for the players above them.
Henry Coates fell to approximately 0.05%, while Aden Kirk was around 0.03%.
Beyond that, Tour Card finishes became exceptionally rare.
Projected finishing positions
The average finishing position across the 50,000 simulations was:
Derek Coulson – 1.14
Joe Hunt – 2.08
Daniel Klose – 3.03
Tommy Morris – 4.75
Tommy Lishman – 5.65
Daniel Ayres – 6.91
Henry Coates – 8.48
Aden Kirk – 10.11
That is perhaps the clearest way of looking at the race.
The model sees three fairly distinct groups.
Coulson is overwhelmingly likely to take a Tour Card.
Hunt is strongly placed but still vulnerable.
Klose is the one player with a substantial chance of breaking the current top two.
After those three, somebody probably needs an exceptional weekend.
Four tournaments can still change everything
An 81% probability is not the same thing as certainty.
Nor is 17% a long-shot number that can simply be ignored.
A single Challenge Tour title is worth £3,000.
If Klose were to win an event while Hunt went out before the Last 64, the £2,250 gap between them would immediately disappear.
That is why this final weekend should be fascinating.
Coulson has done the hard work.
Hunt has a very strong hand.
Klose has a genuine opportunity.
And everyone below them knows that, with £12,000 theoretically available across four events, the door is not completely closed until the darts are thrown.
I will update the simulation as the final Challenge Tour events are completed.
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