Joe Hunt Tops Challenge Tour as Tour Cards and Ally Pally Places Are Decided

 

The 2026 PDC Challenge Tour reached its conclusion in Wigan with plenty still on the line going into the final weekend.

Two PDC Tour Cards were available through the final Order of Merit, alongside World Championship opportunities and, for the player finishing number one, a place in the Grand Slam of Darts.

By the end of Sunday, Joe Hunt had completed a superb late charge to finish top, Derek Coulson had secured the second Tour Card and the battle immediately behind them had gone right down to the wire.

Hunt times his run perfectly

Joe Hunt could hardly have picked a better time to hit top form.

He went into the closing weekend chasing Derek Coulson at the top of the standings, but victory in Challenge Tour 22 was followed by another title in Challenge Tour 23.

Hunt began Event 23 with a 5-0 win over Coulson and later produced a 109.56 average against Nathan Rafferty.

By the quarter-finals he was still going strong, edging Jack Aldridge 5-4 before beating Harrison Leigh 5-3 in the semi-final.

That set up a final against Jack Tweddell, and Hunt finished the job in convincing fashion with a 5-1 victory and a 99.48 average.

It was Hunt's fifth Challenge Tour title of the season and took him to £20,400 at the top of the final Order of Merit.

The reward is considerable.

Hunt earns a two-year PDC Tour Card for 2027 and 2028, while finishing number one also gives him a place in the Grand Slam of Darts.

It was a remarkable finish to the season and a reminder of how quickly the Challenge Tour picture can change when somebody strings together a series of deep runs.

Coulson gets the Tour Card his season deserved

For much of the closing part of the season, Derek Coulson had been the man everyone was chasing.

The final Sunday did not go his way, including that first-round defeat to Hunt in Event 23, but the work had already been done.

Coulson finished second on £15,500, comfortably clear of third place, and therefore joins Hunt in earning a two-year PDC Tour Card.

Hunt may have taken the number-one position at the end, but Coulson's consistency across the season ensured he still walked away with the main prize he had been chasing.

Morris and Klose separated by just £200

Behind the top two, things became much tighter.

Tommy Morris finished third on £12,450, with Daniel Klose fourth on £12,250.

Just £200 separated them after 24 Challenge Tour tournaments.

Morris gave himself an important boost in Event 23, beating Steve Lennon 5-3 in the quarter-final with a 98.30 average before losing 5-4 to Jack Tweddell in the semi-final.

Those extra winnings proved extremely important.

The final top four were:

Position	Player	Prize Money
1	Joe Hunt	£20,400
2	Derek Coulson	£15,500
3	Tommy Morris	£12,450
4	Daniel Klose	£12,250

The Challenge Tour also provides World Championship places, although players who qualify through a higher route do not take an additional place from the Challenge Tour allocation.

That matters because Hunt is in position to qualify for Alexandra Palace through the ProTour route.

As things stand, that puts Coulson and Morris into the Challenge Tour World Championship positions, with Klose next in line if Hunt's qualification comes through elsewhere.

For Klose, that could turn a £200 near miss into a World Championship appearance after all.

Williams wins the final event of the season

There was still one more tournament to play after Hunt had made his move at the top.

Challenge Tour 24 went to Patrik Williams.

Williams beat Jenson Remory 5-3 in the quarter-final before edging Sam Jackson 5-4 in the semi-final.

He then defeated Jack Aldridge 5-3 in the final, averaging 94.78.

The £3,000 winner's prize lifted Williams to 14th on the final Order of Merit on £6,600.

Aldridge also finished the season strongly, reaching the final and ending the campaign seventh on £8,150.

Plenty left wondering what one more run might have done

The final standings show just how costly one missed opportunity can be over the course of a Challenge Tour season.

Behind the leading four came Archie Self on £9,500, Tommy Lishman on £8,950, Jack Aldridge on £8,150, Jack Tweddell on £8,050, Daniel Ayres on £7,750 and Aden Kirk on £7,450.

Tweddell's late run was particularly impressive. He reached the final of Event 23 after beating Morris 5-4 in the semi-final before running into Hunt.

But once the season was finished, the biggest prizes had gone to Hunt and Coulson, while Morris and Klose were left separated by only £200.

Across 24 tournaments, that is an incredibly small margin.

One more route to Alexandra Palace

The Challenge Tour season finished on Sunday, but many of the same players were back in action on Monday for the UK & Ireland Tour Card Holder & Associate Member World Championship Qualifier.

This time there was no season-long Order of Merit.

There was one World Championship place available, and the only way to get it was to win the tournament.

That place went to Carl Wilson.

Wilson comes through the field

Wilson had not been one of the headline names going into the qualifier, but that did not matter once play began.

He beat Kevin Lane and Jack Vincent before surviving a very tight 6-5 match against Jack Aldridge.

Wilson then beat Robbie Martin 6-3 to reach the quarter-finals.

From there, the level of opposition became even tougher.

He defeated former Lakeside world champion Steve Beaton 7-5 and then beat Steve Lennon 7-3 in the semi-final.

That left one match between Wilson and a first appearance at Alexandra Palace.

Standing in his way was Shane McGuirk.

McGuirk falls one match short

McGuirk had put together an excellent run of his own.

He beat Christopher Wickenden in the last 16, Alan Norris in the quarter-final and then Mervyn King 7-5 in the semi-final.

The final was competitive too.

McGuirk produced the higher average, 93.88 compared with Wilson's 89.27, but Wilson won the match 7-4 to secure the World Championship place.

For Wilson, it means a first appearance at Alexandra Palace.

For McGuirk, it was another painful near miss after reaching the final of this qualifier for the second successive year.

Beaton, King and Lennon also go close

There were some very familiar names deep into the qualifier.

Steve Beaton's hopes ended in the quarter-finals against Wilson.

Mervyn King reached the semi-finals before losing to McGuirk, while Steve Lennon made the other semi-final.

Alan Norris, Nick Kenny and Gary Jackson were also among those reaching the last eight.

But this was a tournament where there was only one prize.

Everyone other than Wilson went home knowing they had fallen somewhere short of the one result that mattered.

A weekend that changed careers

The final Challenge Tour weekend and Monday's World Championship qualifier settled a number of major questions.

Joe Hunt finishes the year as Challenge Tour number one, earns a two-year Tour Card and takes a place in the Grand Slam.

Derek Coulson finishes second and earns the other two-year Tour Card.

Tommy Morris has secured his place among the leading Challenge Tour players in the World Championship race.

Daniel Klose finished just £200 behind him and is currently next in line if Hunt qualifies through the ProTour route.

And Carl Wilson produced perhaps the most dramatic story of all, coming through a huge one-day qualifier to book his first appearance at Alexandra Palace.

For some players, the weekend brought the biggest reward of their careers.

For others, an entire 24-event Challenge Tour season came down to a few hundred pounds, one deciding leg or one missed opportunity.

That is how fine the margins can be at this level.

50,000 Simulations: Who Will Win the 2026 Challenge Tour Tour Cards?

 

Just four events remain in the 2026 PDC Challenge Tour, and the race for the two Tour Cards is approaching its conclusion.

Derek Coulson leads the Order of Merit on £15,150, Joe Hunt sits second on £13,050 and Daniel Klose is chasing on £10,800.

But with £3,000 available to the winner of each of the final four events, how secure are those positions really?

I decided to run the final Challenge Tour weekend 50,000 times.

How the simulation works

This isn't simply a case of randomly selecting winners.

I used the current Q4QS data for the 166 players in the final-weekend entry field, including playing strength, averages and recent form.

Each of the four remaining tournaments was then played out as a knockout event, with fresh draws and match results generated each time.

The actual 2026 Challenge Tour prize structure was applied:

Winner – £3,000
Runner-up – £2,000
Semi-final – £1,000
Quarter-final – £750
Last 16 – £350
Last 32 – £250
Last 64 – £100

That whole four-event finish was repeated 50,000 times.

These are simulation estimates rather than predictions of exactly what will happen. Darts is far too volatile for that. What they do show is how the current money advantage and the relative strength of the field combine.

The Tour Card probabilities

Player	Current Prize Money	Finish 1st	Finish Top 2
Derek Coulson	£15,150	86.09%	99.59%
Joe Hunt	£13,050	11.46%	81.45%
Daniel Klose	£10,800	2.34%	16.98%
Tommy Morris	£9,100	0.05%	0.79%
Tommy Lishman	£8,350	0.03%	0.59%
Daniel Ayres	£7,300	0.03%	0.46%
Henry Coates	£6,900	less than 0.01%	0.05%
Aden Kirk	£6,350	less than 0.01%	0.03%

Below that point, the simulation produced only extremely occasional Tour Card finishes.

Derek Coulson is almost there

The numbers underline just how powerful Coulson's £15,150 starting position is.

He finished inside the Top 2 in 99.59% of the 50,000 simulations.

More remarkably, he finished the season at number one in 86.09% of them.

Coulson does not need to dominate the final weekend. His previous results have already given him enough of a cushion that it requires a fairly unusual combination of results to remove him from the top two.

His average finishing position across all 50,000 runs was just 1.14.

In simple terms, the first Tour Card is very close to being decided.

Joe Hunt still has work to do

Hunt's position is very strong, but considerably less secure than Coulson's.

He took a Tour Card in 81.45% of simulations.

That means there was still roughly a one-in-five chance that somebody displaced him from the Top 2.

Hunt also topped the final Order of Merit in 11.46% of runs.

His average finishing position was 2.08, which is almost exactly where he currently sits.

The most important question for Hunt is therefore probably not whether he can catch Coulson.

It is whether he can keep Klose behind him.

Daniel Klose is the genuine danger

This is where the simulation gets particularly interesting.

Klose currently trails Hunt by £2,250, but his performances make him a serious threat during a four-event weekend.

Klose claimed a Tour Card in 16.98% of simulations.

That is approximately one in six.

He also finished top of the entire Challenge Tour Order of Merit in 2.34% of runs.

His average projected finishing position was 3.03.

So while the current table puts Klose third, the Q4QS model doesn't regard second place as remotely impossible.

One big tournament from Klose combined with an early Hunt exit could change the situation very quickly.

And with four separate tournaments available, there are several opportunities for that swing to happen.

Then comes the big gap

The chances fall dramatically after the leading three.

Tommy Morris started the weekend fourth on £9,100 but reached the Top 2 in only 0.79% of simulations.

Tommy Lishman was at 0.59%, with Daniel Ayres at 0.46%.

Those aren't zero.

Four tournaments can produce extraordinary sequences of results.

But players in this group essentially require both a huge weekend of their own and serious problems for the players above them.

Henry Coates fell to approximately 0.05%, while Aden Kirk was around 0.03%.

Beyond that, Tour Card finishes became exceptionally rare.

Projected finishing positions

The average finishing position across the 50,000 simulations was:

1. Derek Coulson – 1.14

2. Joe Hunt – 2.08

3. Daniel Klose – 3.03

4. Tommy Morris – 4.75

5. Tommy Lishman – 5.65

6. Daniel Ayres – 6.91

7. Henry Coates – 8.48

8. Aden Kirk – 10.11

That is perhaps the clearest way of looking at the race.

The model sees three fairly distinct groups.

Coulson is overwhelmingly likely to take a Tour Card.

Hunt is strongly placed but still vulnerable.

Klose is the one player with a substantial chance of breaking the current top two.

After those three, somebody probably needs an exceptional weekend.

Four tournaments can still change everything

An 81% probability is not the same thing as certainty.

Nor is 17% a long-shot number that can simply be ignored.

A single Challenge Tour title is worth £3,000.

If Klose were to win an event while Hunt went out before the Last 64, the £2,250 gap between them would immediately disappear.

That is why this final weekend should be fascinating.

Coulson has done the hard work.

Hunt has a very strong hand.

Klose has a genuine opportunity.

And everyone below them knows that, with £12,000 theoretically available across four events, the door is not completely closed until the darts are thrown.

I will update the simulation as the final Challenge Tour events are completed.

MODUS Super Series Week 5 Preview: Klose Leads Another Fascinating 12-Player Field

The MODUS Super Series returns for Week 5 with another intriguing 12-player line-up, bringing together PDC experience, proven MODUS performers, international talent and several players arriving in particularly strong form.

On the numbers available to Q4QS, Daniel Klose is the obvious starting point.

The German comes into the week ranked 18th in the Q4QS database with a 90.53 average, and his recent results have been outstanding. Klose reached the quarter-finals of Challenge Tour 17, the final of Event 18 and then went unbeaten to win Challenge Tour 20, averaging 93.75 across the tournament. He subsequently stepped onto the Players Championship circuit and still averaged 97.68 and 95.43 in his two appearances there.

That makes him the statistical standout, but this is far from a one-player week.

Neil Duff brings experience and consistency

Former WDF World Champion Neil Duff is another player who should command plenty of respect.

Duff's Q4QS average sits at 84.18, and his recent results include a Vault victory at Waterlooville as well as a semi-final at an ADC Winmau Championship South event. His scoring remains highly competitive, with individual performances including a 103.66 against Leo Howard.

Duff has plenty of experience in longer-format competitive environments, and that can be particularly valuable in the unusual week-long MODUS format.

Jordan Brooks arrives from a World Masters semi-final

One of the more interesting names this week is Jordan Brooks, who comes into MODUS following an excellent run at the 2026 WDF World Masters.

Brooks reached the semi-finals there, winning six matches and averaging 84.12 across the event. His wins included Ron Meulenkamp, Stefan Schroder, David Flowers and Luka Matković, with several individual match averages in the high 80s. He is also 7-3 across his last ten matches in the Q4QS database.

That sort of tournament run suggests Brooks could be particularly dangerous if he settles quickly in Portsmouth.

Rogov's form deserves attention

Dmitrii Rogov may not have the same profile with UK viewers, but his recent record makes him difficult to ignore.

Rogov is 9-1 across his last ten, reached the final of the Cyprus International Darts Open and has subsequently made three semi-finals at Eastern European Darts Challenge events. His recorded match averages include a 95.37, while his overall Q4QS average stands at 80.85.

He looks like exactly the sort of player capable of outperforming expectations during a MODUS week.

Justin Smith comes in with winning form

There is plenty to like about Justin Smith's recent numbers too.

Smith is 8-2 across his last ten and recently went unbeaten to win a Vault event at Cardigan with an 85.51 tournament average. He followed that with a quarter-final at the Towy Sports Bar Open, averaging 80.04 across nine matches.

His notable performances include a 95.94 average in a 3-0 win over Jamie Evans.

With fewer qualifying events in the database than some of the field, his overall Q4QS average isn't yet displayed, but the performances we do have suggest plenty of ability.

Noa-Lynn van Leuven brings a high ceiling

Noa-Lynn van Leuven is another capable of producing numbers well beyond her overall average.

She reached a PDC Women's Series semi-final with an 86.10 event average and subsequently averaged 91.44 during a quarter-final run at the Swiss Open. Her notable recent performances include a 99.89 average in a 5-1 victory over Leanne Topper.

Recent Swedish Open results were less eye-catching, but the ceiling is clearly there.

Hamilton remains a threat

The most experienced name in the field is Andy Hamilton.

His recent Challenge Tour performances are probably more useful than some of the smaller local events in the database when assessing his chances this week. Hamilton reached the last 32 of Challenge Tour 16 averaging 88.42 and most recently averaged 86.42 in reaching the last 64 of Challenge Tour 20.

He has been around the highest level of the sport for years, and MODUS has repeatedly shown that experience can count for plenty when players have to negotiate multiple sessions across the week.

Six to Follow

Daniel Klose – The standout on recent numbers. A Challenge Tour winner, finalist and quarter-finalist in his last few outings, with a 90.53 Q4QS average.

Neil Duff – Experienced, consistent and still capable of producing very strong scoring bursts.

Jordan Brooks – Comes in fresh from a WDF World Masters semi-final and looks particularly well suited to the format.

Dmitrii Rogov – Perhaps the most intriguing player in the field. He is 9-1 recently and has been consistently reaching finals and semi-finals.

Justin Smith – 8-2 in his last ten with an 85.51 tournament average during a recent unbeaten title run.

Noa-Lynn van Leuven – Has the scoring ceiling to trouble anyone in the field and has produced several excellent tournament performances this season.

There are plenty of alternatives to those six.

Danny Goddard has been competing regularly on the Challenge Tour and has produced a 95.54 match average recently. Mark Layton has won two recent Vault events at Llandeilo and also reached a final and semi-final during a strong sequence of results.

Ziggy Schenk is harder to assess with only three qualifying events currently in the Q4QS database, but his Q-School results included a 90.12 event performance and an 84.96 match average.

The two players I currently have least Q4QS data for are Richard McKee and Martyn Turner, who were not matched to profiles in this export, so I wouldn't manufacture form lines for either of them.

A strong favourite – but an open week behind him

Klose deserves to begin the week as the player to beat on the available evidence. Very few players arrive at MODUS immediately after the sort of Challenge Tour sequence he has put together.

Behind him, though, it becomes much harder to separate the field.

Duff has the experience, Rogov and Brooks have excellent recent tournament form, Smith is winning events, Van Leuven has a very high scoring ceiling, and Hamilton remains capable of producing the numbers required at this level.

That should make MODUS Super Series Week 5 another fascinating week — and one where the battle to reach Saturday could prove every bit as interesting as the eventual title race.

Who Will Win a PDC Tour Card? Simulating the 2026 Challenge Tour Run-In 50,000 Times

For events remain. Two Tour Cards are available. And, theoretically at least, there is still £15,000 for one player to win.

The 2026 PDC Challenge Tour is approaching its conclusion with Derek Coulson and Joe Hunt occupying the two positions everybody wants.

But are they home?

Not quite.

With £3,000 available to each tournament winner, somebody could still make a dramatic late charge. Tommy Morris, Tommy Lishman, Daniel Klose, Daniel Ayres and Henry Coates all remain within mathematical striking distance, while several players further back are performing considerably better than their Challenge Tour earnings might suggest.

So rather than simply looking at the current table, I decided to simulate the final four tournaments 50,000 times.

The question is simple:

If we replayed the Challenge Tour run-in 50,000 times, who would actually win the two Tour Cards?

Where things stand

Derek Coulson currently leads the Challenge Tour Order of Merit with £13,150, just £200 ahead of Joe Hunt on £12,950.

The important number, however, is the gap behind them.

Tommy Morris is third on £9,000, Tommy Lishman fourth on £8,350 and Daniel Klose fifth on £7,800. Daniel Ayres has £6,950 and Henry Coates £6,650.

The Challenge Tour awards Tour Cards to the top two, while the top three qualify for the World Championship and the Order of Merit winner also earns a Grand Slam place.

So there is plenty more at stake than simply finishing first.

But with only five events remaining, time is rapidly becoming the chasing pack's biggest enemy.

How the simulation works

Before looking at the results, this needs some explanation.

This isn't simply a random distribution of prize money.

I used the supplied entry list as the field, meaning players appearing in the wider PDC data who aren't actually entered aren't allowed to magically appear in our simulated tournaments.

Player strength is primarily based on their underlying performance data, with PDC/Q4QS performance level and match averages carrying most of the weight, alongside a smaller recent-form component.

Each event is then independently drawn and simulated as a knockout tournament. Prize money is awarded according to finishing position and added to the player's existing Challenge Tour total.

Then we do it again.

And again.

Until we've completed 50,000 different versions of the final five events.

There are important limitations.

A model can't know who wakes up feeling brilliant on Saturday morning. It can't perfectly identify a player who has suddenly improved. Short-format darts contains enormous variance, and an open draw can transform somebody's weekend.

Nor do I want a brilliant performance outside the PDC to carry exactly the same weight as repeatedly performing against Tour Card holders.

The percentages below are therefore estimates, not forecasts carved in stone.

And that's partly what makes the results interesting.

The result: Coulson and Hunt are very difficult to catch

Player	Current CT £	Tour Card Chance	Win OoM	Top 3
Derek Coulson	£13,150	98.0%	51.3%	100.0%
Joe Hunt	£12,950	97.2%	46.9%	100.0%
Tommy Morris	£9,000	1.8%	0.8%	36.4%
Daniel Klose	£7,800	1.2%	0.4%	17.3%
Tommy Lishman	£8,350	1.0%	0.4%	18.1%
Daniel Ayres	£6,950	0.4%	0.2%	9.6%
Henry Coates	£6,650	0.2%	0.1%	6.6%
Nathan Potter	£5,850	0.04%	0.01%	2.0%
Aden Kirk	£6,100	0.04%	0.02%	1.9%
Steve Lennon	£5,400	0.02%	0.01%	1.5%

The headline couldn't really be clearer.

Derek Coulson – 98.0%

Joe Hunt – 97.2%

The model thinks the current top two retain the Tour Cards in the overwhelming majority of outcomes.

That doesn't mean they're mathematically safe.

It means somebody now needs to do something exceptional to stop them.

Coulson v Hunt could be the real battle

Perhaps the more interesting race isn't second against third.

It's first against second.

Despite Coulson leading Hunt by only £200, the simulation gives him a 51.3% chance of winning the Order of Merit, compared with Hunt's 46.9%.

That's almost a coin toss.

And the two arrive at this point from rather different directions.

Coulson remains the highest-rated Challenge Tour entrant in my Q4QS data, with a 724.59 rating and 91.19 average. He's shown an enormous ceiling on the ProTour too, including a Players Championship run averaging 102.10 and individual wins over Niko Springer and Tom Sykes at 98.39 and 106.59 respectively.

His immediate results haven't been nearly as strong, though: he's just 3-7 across his latest ten recorded matches.

Hunt is the opposite.

He's 10-0 in the latest Q4QS sample, having continued to win away from the Challenge Tour.

So while the Tour Card race looks increasingly settled, the race to actually win the Challenge Tour remains fascinating.

Tommy Morris – the most likely spoiler

If either leader is going to be caught, Tommy Morris remains the obvious candidate.

But his updated probability demonstrates just how difficult the task has become.

Tour Card chance: 1.8%

Top-three chance: 36.4%

Morris starts £3,950 behind Hunt.

Even winning the next event would take him to £12,000 – still £950 below Hunt's current total before Hunt himself adds anything.

That's why Morris can have more than a one-in-three chance of finishing in the top three, but less than a 2% chance of getting into the top two.

The gap between second and third is now the defining feature of this race.

Daniel Klose – the model's next challenger

Interestingly, Klose comes out marginally ahead of Lishman for a Tour Card despite starting £550 further behind.

That's where performance data begins to make a difference.

Klose has just won a PDC Europe Next Gen event, averaging 92.28 across the tournament, and stands 8-2 across his latest ten matches in the database.

His chances are:

1.2% Tour Card

17.3% Top Three

The card probability is small.

But a roughly one-in-six chance of breaking into the World Championship positions makes Klose's final weekend very significant indeed.

Tommy Lishman – money keeps him firmly involved

Lishman starts fourth on £8,350 and remains very much part of the chasing group.

The simulation gives him:

1.0% Tour Card

18.1% Top Three

In fact, he's marginally more likely than Klose to finish in the top three because of that existing £550 advantage.

Lishman has also gained Players Championship experience this year, including a win over Danny Noppert.

Again, the Tour Card probably requires something spectacular.

The World Championship race is another matter entirely.

Henry Coates – and this time the model notices him

This is one of the biggest differences from the first model.

Previously, Coates' larger historical sample dragged his probability down despite what we've seen recently.

The revised model still doesn't make him likely to catch Coulson or Hunt – the £6,300 gap to Hunt is simply enormous with five tournaments remaining – but his current performance profile now gives him:

0.24% Tour Card

6.6% Top Three

That's roughly one Tour Card in every 400 simulated run-ins.

Small?

Absolutely.

But not zero.

And Coates might be the player for whom the percentage itself matters least.

He recently won Players Championship 25, averaging 98.34 for the event and defeating Damon Heta 8-4 in the final with a 104.88 average.

He then reached the Development Tour 20 final and is 9-1 in his latest ten in the database.

So the question remains:

Are we looking at the same Henry Coates who generated the older data, or a player who has suddenly jumped to another level?

Statistical models are deliberately reluctant to overreact to one tournament.

Sometimes that's a strength.

Sometimes it means they're the last to notice a breakthrough.

Coates gives us five events to find out.

Daniel Ayres – ProTour performances make him dangerous

Ayres is another player whose current position perhaps doesn't tell the whole story.

He sits sixth with £6,950, but he's second among the entrants in the Q4QS performance ranking with a rating of 706.48 and an 89.52 average.

His recent performances include a 92.37 tournament average at Players Championship 26 and some excellent darts against strong opposition.

The model gives him a 0.4% Tour Card chance and 9.6% chance of reaching the top three.

Again, it's the existing deficit rather than playing ability that is killing his Tour Card probability.

What happened to Jack Aldridge?

This is another revealing result.

In the six-event model, Aldridge emerged as a fascinating statistical bolter.

With only five tournaments remaining?

His Tour Card chance collapses to around 0.01%.

That's not because the model suddenly thinks Aldridge isn't good enough.

Quite the opposite.

He remains one of the strongest underlying performers in the field and has produced a 100.64 match average in the Q4QS data.

The problem is that he starts on only £4,400.

One fewer tournament is particularly damaging to somebody trying to come from that far behind.

Aldridge is a perfect example of the difference between:

"good enough to challenge"

and

"still having enough time to challenge."

With six tournaments, there was a path.

With five, it has become extraordinarily narrow.

Does ProTour experience matter?

This is something I'm particularly interested in.

Hunt, Coates, Coulson, Ayres, Lishman and several others have all experienced Players Championship competition this year.

And they're not simply making up numbers.

Coulson has averaged over 100 across a Players Championship run.

Coates has actually won one.

Ayres has produced strong performances there.

Steve Lennon arrived at his most recent Players Championship averaging 99.41 despite eventually losing to Ayres.

Does regularly facing Tour Card opposition make somebody more likely to handle a Challenge Tour run-in?

The database can't prove that.

But I certainly wouldn't ignore it.

And what about form outside the PDC?

This needs another caveat.

The Q4QS database contains performances from far beyond the Challenge Tour.

ADC, WDF, UKDA and other competitions can tell us that somebody is winning, scoring well and arriving with confidence.

Simon Stevenson, for example, is 8-2 recently and has won an event averaging 92.31.

Steve Lennon is 7-3, recently won an ADC Winmau Championship North event averaging 89.76 and subsequently averaged 99.41 at Players Championship 26.

That's useful evidence.

But I don't believe beating strong opposition outside the PDC should automatically be treated exactly the same as doing it on the ProTour.

That's why wider form is an adjustment, rather than the primary driver of the model.

Some players have another route

There's also something important this simulation deliberately doesn't attempt to predict.

Some Challenge Tour competitors are eligible for the Development Tour and could potentially earn a Tour Card through that route instead.

That matters particularly when discussing players such as Coates.

But I'm keeping the question deliberately narrow.

These probabilities mean:

Chance of winning one of the two Tour Cards through the Challenge Tour.

They are not the probability that a player will hold a Tour Card next season by any available method.

Development Tour qualification and other routes are separate.

The World Championship race may be much more interesting

The top two battle increasingly looks like Coulson and Hunt.

The top-three race doesn't.

Look again at the simulation:

Tommy Morris – 36.4%

Tommy Lishman – 18.1%

Daniel Klose – 17.3%

Daniel Ayres – 9.6%

Henry Coates – 6.6%

Those are much more interesting numbers.

So even if Coulson and Hunt prove impossible to catch, there remains an enormous battle immediately behind them.

The Challenge Tour's top three qualify for the World Championship.

Suddenly every £100, £250 and £350 becomes important.

One deep run could be worth far more than simply the prize money won that day.

Five tournaments and £15,000 – can the impossible happen?

Of course.

This is darts.

A player can win an event from almost anywhere in the draw.

Someone could win two tournaments and suddenly add £6,000.

Three titles would be £9,000.

And if one of the leaders suffered five poor tournaments, the entire picture could change.

But the simulation tells us how unusual that combination of events would need to be.

Coulson takes a Tour Card in 98.0% of our simulated endings.

Hunt does it in 97.2%.

Between them, they have built the most valuable commodity possible heading into the final Challenge Tour block:

room for a bad day.

Everyone chasing them has almost none.

My prediction

After correcting the number of remaining tournaments and running the entire model again, I'm even more confident in the same two names.

🥇 Derek Coulson

🥈 Joe Hunt

But I'm not convinced that's where the most interesting action will be.

Coulson v Hunt for first place is almost 50/50.

Morris, Lishman and Klose are involved in a fascinating battle behind them.

Ayres' underlying standard makes him dangerous.

And Coates is the wildcard – a player whose recent ProTour performances suggest he could be considerably better right now than a season-long model can comfortably recognise.

Five events remain.

A maximum £1,2000 is still available.

The simulation says Coulson and Hunt.

Now we get to find out whether darts agrees.