World Grand Prix 2026 Preview: Does Double-In Really Change Everything?

The World Grand Prix is one of the tournaments I always find interesting because it asks the players to do something they simply do not have to do anywhere else on the PDC circuit.

Every leg is double-in, double-out.

Before a player can start scoring, they have to hit a double. They then have to finish on one in the usual way.

It sounds like a relatively small change, but we all know what can happen. Miss a few darts trying to get away and your opponent can already be well into the leg before you have scored a point.

The obvious question, though, is how much difference does it really make at this level?

My feeling going into the tournament is perhaps not as much as we sometimes think.

These are elite double hitters

The theory is that the World Grand Prix should favour the better double hitters.

That makes perfect sense.

But we also have to remember who we are talking about. This is a 32-player field made up of elite professionals. There will obviously be differences between their doubling percentages, but every player in this tournament is capable of hitting doubles consistently.

For me, the format probably creates more volatility rather than completely changing who the strongest players are.

If someone misses six darts getting away, suddenly a leg can disappear very quickly. Over a short match, a couple of legs like that can decide everything.

Over the course of a whole tournament, though, I still expect the better players to come towards the top.

We will find out.

Littler and Humphries set the standard again

It is difficult to start anywhere other than Luke Littler and Luke Humphries.

They are currently the top two players in the Q4QS rankings and their recent numbers back that up.

Littler has been producing some extraordinary averages and has won nine of his last ten matches in the database. His World Matchplay run included an event average above 111, which tells you the level he can reach when everything is working.

Humphries remains number one in the Q4QS rankings and continues to produce deep runs and tournament victories.

The double-start format gives everyone another problem to solve, but it is difficult to imagine either player being particularly fazed by it.

Gerwyn Price remains right in the picture

Gerwyn Price is another player coming into the tournament with plenty of strong form behind him.

He is third in the current Q4QS rankings with an average just under 99 and has recently reached a World Matchplay final as well as another televised semi-final.

His opening match against Sebastian Bialecki is one I am particularly interested in.

Bialecki is much further down the established PDC pecking order, but the Q4QS numbers are very positive. He has already won a Players Championship event this season and sits surprisingly high in our current rankings.

If Price starts quickly, his scoring power should give him the advantage.

But this is exactly the sort of tournament where an outsider getting away cleanly while the favourite struggles on the starting doubles can suddenly change everything.

Ross Smith arrives as a recent champion

Ross Smith certainly deserves a mention after winning the recent World Series of Darts Finals.

That is a serious piece of form to bring into another televised tournament.

Smith has also won on the Players Championship circuit this season, so this isn't simply one good weekend appearing from nowhere.

He is capable of producing big averages, he scores heavily and he has just shown that he can put together a complete run against top-class opposition on a major stage.

His opening match against Cameron Menzies isn't straightforward, but Smith comes into the tournament with genuine momentum.

Chris Dobey is one I will be watching

Chris Dobey's recent numbers have been particularly strong.

He sits fifth in the current Q4QS rankings, has won eight of his last ten recorded matches and recently averaged over 105 across a Players Championship run.

He has also produced individual match averages comfortably above 110.

Dobey faces Jermaine Wattimena, who is hardly short of form himself.

Wattimena recently won a Players Championship event and has also won eight of his last ten matches in the database.

That could be one of the best matches of the opening round.

Nijman continues to climb

Wessel Nijman is another player whose numbers keep catching my attention.

He is currently fourth in the Q4QS rankings and has been regularly producing averages around or above the 100 mark.

His opening match against Rob Cross should tell us plenty.

Cross has obviously been there and done it on the biggest stages and has also won on the Players Championship circuit this season.

But Nijman increasingly looks comfortable alongside this level of player rather than simply being someone trying to break into it.

That makes this a particularly interesting first-round match.

Plenty of danger throughout the field

There are a number of other players who could easily have a big week.

Michael van Gerwen remains capable of beating anyone when his game clicks.

Gary Anderson's best performances are still extremely strong.

James Wade has spent a career finding ways of winning matches in formats where pressure and doubling matter.

Kevin Doets has been producing good results and recently reached a Players Championship final.

Danny Noppert continues to put together solid numbers, while players such as Gian van Veen, Nathan Aspinall, Stephen Bunting and Damon Heta make this a very strong field throughout.

There really aren't many comfortable matches.

So how much will double-in actually matter?

This is probably the thing I want to follow most closely throughout the tournament.

My starting position is simple:

It matters, but I don't think it completely changes the hierarchy.

At lower levels of darts, differences in doubling ability can be enormous.

At this level, those differences are much smaller.

The really interesting part may therefore be what the format does psychologically.

One missed dart at double 16 means very little.

Three misses becomes frustrating.

Six misses while your opponent is already halfway down the board becomes pressure.

And once that happens in a short set format, strange things can happen very quickly.

That is probably why the World Grand Prix feels different even if, by the end of the week, many of the familiar names are still standing.

I'll be interested to look back when the tournament is finished and see whether the double-in format genuinely produced more surprises than we would normally expect.

Because there are really two different questions.

Does double-in change individual legs and matches?

Almost certainly.

Does it actually change who the best players are?

I'm not so sure.

This week should give us a pretty good opportunity to find out.

How Do You Beat Luke Littler? Six Defeats Reveal the Best Chance of Stopping Darts’ Dominant Player

 The World Series of Darts Finals arrive in Amsterdam this week, and once again Luke Littler will start as the man everyone wants to stop.

With another major title on offer, the question facing the 31 other players in the field is becoming increasingly familiar: how do you beat Luke Littler?

There is a growing feeling around darts that Littler may simply keep winning. His level in 2026 has been extraordinary, and when he gets into the longer televised formats he has often looked almost impossible to stop.

So ahead of the World Series Finals, rather than simply asking who might beat him in Amsterdam, I wanted to look at a slightly different question.

How do you actually beat Luke Littler?

The Q4QS data gives us six examples from 2026.

Littler’s current profile shows 41 wins from 47 matches, an 87.2% win rate, with six defeats.

Those six defeats are:

• Gerwyn Price, 6-2 — Bahrain Masters

• Niels Zonneveld, 6-5 — Belgian Open

• Luke Humphries, 7-5 — Nordic Masters

• Luke Humphries, 8-7 — US Masters

• Jermaine Wattimena, 6-5 — Players Championship 27

• Brendan Dolan, 7-4 — Players Championship 28

Five of those defeats are grouped in Littler’s profile, with the Dolan loss appearing among his most recent matches.
And there is one thing that jumps out immediately.

Every single defeat came in a relatively short format.

None of Littler’s defeats in the Q4QS 2026 data came in the sort of long race we see later in the biggest televised events.

That may be the first real clue.

Short Formats Give You a Chance

The theory is simple.

If Littler is producing a higher level than almost everybody else over a sustained period, then the longer the match goes, the more opportunity that superiority has to show itself.

A shorter race creates more variance.

One missed double, one 12-dart leg from the opponent, one poor visit at the wrong time, and suddenly there may not be enough match left for Littler to recover.

Jermaine Wattimena’s win is a perfect example.

Wattimena beat Littler 6-5 at Players Championship 27 while averaging just 92.36. Littler averaged 95.68.
That was not a case of somebody producing a 110 average and blowing Littler away.

It was a short match, Littler dropped below his usual level, and Wattimena took the opportunity.

Gerwyn Price did something similar in Bahrain.

Price won 6-2 with a 97.43 average while Littler averaged 94.04.
Again, it was not a superhuman performance.

It was simply good enough at exactly the right time.

But Waiting for Littler to Play Badly Is Not Enough

There is another side to this.

Niels Zonneveld beat Littler 6-5 at the Belgian Open despite Littler averaging 103.20.

Luke Humphries has beaten him twice, and both performances were at genuinely elite level.

Humphries averaged 105.42 in a 7-5 win and 104.05 in an 8-7 victory.

That gives us two different ways Littler has been beaten this year.

The first is to catch him on an ordinary day and punish it immediately.

The second is to play outstanding darts yourself and stay with him right through the short race.

The second route is obviously much harder.

But Humphries has already shown twice that it is possible.

Humphries Has the Strongest Case

If I were looking for the player with the clearest evidence that they can beat Littler rather than simply hope Littler has an off day, Humphries would be top of the list.

He is the only player in the six defeats to have beaten Littler twice.

More importantly, neither win came because Littler collapsed.

Littler still averaged 100.85 and 99.50 in those defeats.

Humphries simply played better.

That matters.

There are plenty of players capable of beating Littler if he averages 94 or 95.

There are far fewer who look capable of beating him when he is around 100 or above.

Humphries has done it.

Of course, even that does not make him some sort of Littler kryptonite.

Littler beat Humphries 6-5 at the World Masters earlier in the year, averaging 104.72.

He also beat him in the recent Czech Darts Open final.

So this is not a one-sided rivalry.

It is simply the strongest evidence in the field that somebody can go toe-to-toe with Littler at a high level and still come out on top.

Price Has Beaten Him — But the Longer Match Told a Different Story

Gerwyn Price is another obvious threat.

He has already beaten Littler this year, winning 6-2 in Bahrain.

But the World Matchplay showed how dramatically things can change when the format gets longer.

Price averaged 104.97 in the final.

That is the sort of number that wins most matches.

Against Littler, it was nowhere near enough.

Littler won 18-9 and averaged 111.53.
That may be the best single example of why a long format is such a problem.

Price had already proved he could beat Littler over a shorter race.

Later in the year he actually played far better against him — and lost heavily.

That is not proof that format alone caused the difference, but it is certainly consistent with the wider pattern.

Over a long match, Littler has more time to find his best level.

And once he does, even an opponent averaging 104 or 105 can be in serious trouble.

Van Gerwen Has a Different Kind of Case

Michael van Gerwen has not beaten Littler in the Q4QS 2026 profile data.

Littler beat him 8-5 in Saudi Arabia.

So purely on this season’s evidence, Van Gerwen would not rank above Humphries or Price as the most proven threat.

But the World Series Finals are in Amsterdam.

And that changes the feel of the story.

Van Gerwen is the defending champion, having beaten Littler 11-7 in the 2025 final at the same venue.

That does not mean history will repeat itself.

But if there is one place where Van Gerwen should walk onto stage believing he can beat Littler, Amsterdam is probably it.

He has already done it there when the title was on the line.

Wattimena Has Already Shown the Blueprint

Jermaine Wattimena may actually be one of the most interesting names in this discussion.

His win over Littler came recently, it came over a short distance, and it came without an enormous average.

He simply stayed close enough and took his opportunity.

That is probably far more realistic for most of the field than trying to produce 110 darts.

Wattimena’s example says something important.

You do not necessarily need to be the better player over 20 or 30 legs.

You need to be the better player over the legs that actually get played.

That is a very different challenge.

The Opening Rounds in Amsterdam May Be the Danger

That brings us directly back to this week's World Series Finals.

Danny Noppert gets the first chance at Littler.

On paper, Littler is the obvious favourite.

Noppert has already lost 10-6 to him at the UK Open this year.

But if the short-format pattern is real, the early rounds may actually provide the best opportunity for an upset.

A player like Noppert does not need to prove he is better than Littler across an entire season.

He does not even need to prove he is better across a long match.

He needs one sharp spell, one strong finishing run, and perhaps one ordinary patch from Littler.

That is why an early-round opponent can sometimes be more dangerous than a bigger name waiting later in the tournament.

So Who Can Stop Him in Amsterdam?

Based on the evidence I have, I would split the main threats into different categories.

Luke Humphries is the strongest proven high-level threat. He has beaten Littler twice while producing elite averages.

Gerwyn Price has already beaten him and has the scoring power to do it again, although the Matchplay showed just how hard the task becomes over longer distances.

Jermaine Wattimena has the most recent proof that a short-format upset does not require a massive average.

Michael van Gerwen has the Amsterdam history, the crowd and the memory of beating Littler in last year’s final.

And then there are players such as Wessel Nijman, Gian van Veen and Nathan Aspinall who may not have the same direct 2026 evidence against Littler, but have shown they can produce high enough levels against elite opposition to be dangerous on the right night.

The Best Way to Beat Littler May Be to Beat Him Quickly

The most obvious conclusion from the six defeats is not that Littler has a particular weakness against one specific player.

It is that the window for beating him appears to be much wider when the match is short.

If Littler averages 94 or 95, there are several players capable of punishing him.

If he averages around 100, Humphries and Zonneveld have shown he can still be beaten.

But once the match becomes long enough for Littler to settle, recover from poor spells and repeatedly produce his best scoring, the job appears to become dramatically harder.

That makes the early stages of the World Series Finals particularly interesting.

Noppert gets the first opportunity. If Littler survives that and starts finding his range, the challenge facing everyone else could become progressively harder.

So perhaps the message for Amsterdam is simple.

Do not give him time.

Do not assume you will get another chance.

And if Littler opens the door, go through it immediately.

Because if the match becomes a long one, his 2026 results suggest that door may close very quickly.

PDC Round-Up: Littler Makes His Players Championship Return as Wattimena and Humphries Take the Titles

 

It was a busy few days on the PDC circuit, with the World Series of Darts Finals Tour Card Holder Qualifier followed by Players Championship 27 and 28.

There was plenty to take from all three tournaments. Jermaine Wattimena and Luke Humphries collected the Players Championship titles, four players booked World Series Finals places, and Luke Littler made his first Players Championship appearances of the 2026 season.

Littler's return to the floor was always going to attract attention, and despite not taking either title, a quarter-final and semi-final represented an impressive first couple of days back.

Four come through World Series qualifier

The week's action began on 24 August with the Tour Card Holder Qualifier for the World Series of Darts Finals.

The four players to emerge from the field were Callan Rydz, Rob Cross, Kevin Doets and Karel Sedlacek.

Rydz came through with five victories and a 96.44 tournament average, eventually beating Daryl Gurney 6-2 with a 98.95 average in his qualifying match.

Cross also produced some excellent darts. His route culminated in a 6-3 victory over Dirk van Duijvenbode, averaging 98.41, having previously edged Peter Wright 6-5.

Doets completed his run by defeating Maik Kuivenhoven 6-3.

But statistically, one of the performances of the qualifier belonged to Karel Sedlacek.

The Czech averaged 99.53 across his five victories, and saved his best for the decisive match. Sedlacek averaged 105.22 in a 6-4 win over Owen Bates to secure his place.

There was plenty of quality elsewhere too, with Cristo Reyes producing a 106.67 during the tournament and Van Duijvenbode, Mickey Mansell and Keane Barry also recording individual averages above 103.

Four places were available, though, and they ultimately belonged to Rydz, Cross, Doets and Sedlacek.

Wattimena wins Players Championship 27

The first of the week's two Players Championship events produced a title for Jermaine Wattimena.

Wattimena completed a perfect seven-match run by beating Kevin Doets 8-6 in the final, averaging 93.81 against Doets' 93.22.

His overall tournament average was an impressive 95.20, but perhaps the most significant thing about his victory was the quality of opposition he negotiated towards the end.

In the semi-final he defeated Luke Woodhouse 7-4 with a 100.71 average.

Before that came one of the biggest matches of the week.

Wattimena faced Luke Littler in the quarter-finals and edged a tight contest 6-5.

Littler actually produced the higher average at 95.68 to Wattimena's 92.36, but it was the Dutchman who found the decisive leg before going on to take the title.

Nijman produces the performance of the day

Wattimena took the trophy, but Wessel Nijman produced some spectacular numbers.

Nijman averaged 109.77 in a 6-1 Last 16 victory over Bradley Brooks and finished the tournament with a 97.49 overall average.

He eventually lost 7-5 to Doets in the semi-finals despite averaging 97.31.

Luke Woodhouse was another player to enjoy a strong run, reaching the last four with a 95.71 tournament average, while Cameron Menzies, Kim Huybrechts and Mickey Mansell all reached the quarter-finals.

But the big additional talking point was Littler.

Littler's first Players Championship of 2026

For all Luke Littler has already achieved, this was something we had not seen during 2026 – Littler competing on the Players Championship circuit.

And his first appearance certainly wasn't a token visit.

He began with a 6-2 victory over Archie Self before defeating Arno Merk 6-3 with a 105.12 average.

William O'Connor was beaten 6-3 before Littler whitewashed Chris Dobey 6-0 in the Last 16.

That set up the quarter-final against eventual champion Wattimena.

Littler lost 6-5, but finished his first floor tournament of the season with four wins, one defeat and a 97.47 tournament average.

Not bad for a first appearance.

And he wasn't finished.

Humphries takes PC28 – Littler goes one better

Players Championship 28 belonged to Luke Humphries.

The former World Champion went unbeaten through seven matches, defeating Brendan Dolan 8-6 in the final.

Humphries averaged 97.63 across the tournament and produced several outstanding individual displays along the way.

His peak came earlier in the event with a 108.66 average, while he also averaged 99.70 in his 6-5 Last 16 victory over Danny Noppert and 99.97 when defeating Mike De Decker 7-4 in the semi-final.

Dolan's appearance in the final was perhaps less predictable.

His overall tournament average was only 88.38, but he repeatedly found ways to win – and his biggest victory came against Littler.

Littler reaches the semi-finals

Having reached the last eight 24 hours earlier, Littler went one round further at PC28.

And this time his overall numbers were even better.

He averaged 98.36 across six matches, the best tournament average among the four semi-finalists.

His route included a 6-1 demolition of Martin Schindler in the Last 32 with a huge 107.23 average.

Andy Boulton was beaten 6-3 before Littler faced Krzysztof Ratajski in the quarter-finals.

That was an excellent contest.

Littler averaged 100.65, Ratajski 99.99, with Littler coming through 6-4.

That put him into his first Players Championship semi-final of the season at only the second attempt.

Dolan stopped him there.

The Northern Irishman produced one of his best performances of the tournament when it mattered most, averaging 97.63 to Littler's 96.42 in a 7-4 victory.

Humphries then denied Dolan the title in the final.

Two events, nine wins for Littler

The temptation whenever Littler enters a tournament is to judge anything short of victory as a disappointment.

The numbers don't really support doing that here.

Across his first two Players Championship appearances of 2026, Littler recorded:

9 wins from 11 matches

Quarter-final at PC27

Semi-final at PC28

97.47 tournament average at PC27

98.36 tournament average at PC28

105.12 best average at PC27

107.23 best average at PC28

And his only defeats came against the eventual PC27 champion Wattimena and PC28 runner-up Dolan.

There was no title, but there was very little evidence of difficulty adapting to the floor environment.

If anything, the second day suggested he was getting stronger.

A good week for Kevin Doets

Another name running throughout the week's results was Kevin Doets.

First he qualified for the World Series Finals by defeating Maik Kuivenhoven.

Twenty-four hours later he reached the PC27 final.

Doets beat Rob Cross, Cameron Menzies and Wessel Nijman during the latter stages before Wattimena finally stopped him 8-6.

That made it an excellent couple of days for the Dutchman: a World Series Finals place followed by a Players Championship final.

Woodhouse consistently goes deep

Luke Woodhouse didn't quite get the headline result, but his consistency deserves mentioning.

He reached the PC27 semi-finals and followed it with a PC28 quarter-final.

Across PC27 he averaged 95.71, including a 101.97 in his quarter-final win over Mickey Mansell.

At PC28 he averaged 96.95 across five matches and produced a 101.61 against Daniel Ayres.

Two events, two deep runs and some very solid numbers.

PC28 produces some huge averages

There were also several eye-catching individual performances away from the latter stages.

Martin Schindler hit 109.52, the highest match average in the PC28 data.

Humphries reached 108.66.

Littler produced 107.23.

Jimmy van Schie averaged 105.36, while Owen Bates, Chris Dobey and Kim Huybrechts were among several others to break through the 100 barrier.

It reinforced just how unforgiving these floor tournaments can be.

An excellent performance can still leave a player several rounds away from the title.

A week with several different stories

If there was one theme running through the week's PDC action, it was probably opportunity.

Rydz, Cross, Doets and Sedlacek took theirs to reach the World Series Finals.

Wattimena converted an excellent PC27 run into a title.

Humphries did the same a day later.

Doets enjoyed one of the week's most consistent spells, while Nijman produced one of its biggest individual performances.

And then there was Littler.

His decision to make his first Players Championship appearances of 2026 added another dimension to both tournaments.

A quarter-final followed by a semi-final may not have produced the trophy, but nine victories from 11 matches and tournament averages of 97.47 and 98.36 suggest his first venture onto the floor this season was hardly unsuccessful.

Whether we see considerably more of him in the remaining Players Championship events remains to be seen.

But his first two appearances certainly made the floor tournaments even more interesting.

Grand Slam of Darts Quarter-Finals: My AI-Model Predicts the Winner

 

The 2025 Mr Vegas Grand Slam of Darts is down to the final eight, and it’s one of the most wide-open quarter-final line-ups we’ve seen in years.

So I decided to put my Philpot AI-Style Prediction Model to work.

This model blends:

• recent three-dart average

• checkout %

• 180s and scoring bursts

• big-stage experience

• bookmakers’ odds (converted into a rating)

• and a final Philpot Form Boost' for players trending upwards

It’s early days for the model, but it gives a fun, stats-based look at who’s most likely to lift the title this weekend.

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⭐ Philpot AI Ratings (Out of 100)

1. Luke Littler – 95/100

The defending champion, the strongest scorer in the field, and the most explosive leg-player in the world right now.
Elite 180 power + rock-solid temperament = the model’s outright favourite.

2. Luke Humphries – 90/100

Still the best all-round player on the planet when he hits top gear.
A slightly lower form rating keeps him behind Littler, but his stage experience and consistency mean he is right in the mix.

3. Gerwyn Price – 88/100

Nobody brings Grand Slam pedigree like Price.
Big-stage factor + finishing quality keep him in the top tier of contenders.

4. Danny Noppert – 85/100

Quietly in great form.
Strong doubling numbers, improved scoring, and a high “danger of causing an upset” rating in the model.

5. Michael Smith – 82/100

Still posting big numbers but hasn’t quite had the major-run consistency this season.
His ceiling is massive — but his floor can be low.

6. Josh Rock – 80/100

Momentum, yes. Experience deep in TV majors, not as much.
The model loves his long-term curve but sees this as “maybe one tournament too soon”.

7. Ricky Evans – 78/100

Playing freely and enjoying the moment.
A live danger in patches, but model marks him down on consistency and doubling.

8. Lukas Wenig – 75/100

What a story.
Huge power, fearless, but low Grand Slam / TV experience keeps the model cautious.
Still very capable of a shock.

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🏆 🏆 Philpot AI Champion Prediction

The numbers pick:

🏆 Luke Littler – 95/100

Everything points to a deep run: the scoring, the timing, the pressure handling, and last year’s title. The model says Littler is the man to beat.

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🌑 Next Best Pick

Luke Humphries – 90/100

If Littler slips even slightly, Humphries is the most likely to punish him. His consistency over long formats remains elite.

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⚡ Surprise Candidate

Danny Noppert – 85/100

The stats favour him more than many fans realise.
If Price or Littler have an off night, Noppert has the game to pounce.

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📈 What’s Next for the Model?

I’ll update this after the quarter-finals to see how well the predictions performed and adjust the model for the semi-finals and final.

Let me know in the comments who your pick is!