I learned a fairly painful lesson about percentages at the weekend.
I was playing in an under-55 average competition and found myself in a really close match. We were both playing well, and eventually it went all the way to a deciding leg.
I lost 4–3.
There were several darts I could look back on, but one particular moment stayed with me. Not necessarily because I threw a bad dart, but because I think I made the wrong decision.
And it got me thinking. Are we choosing the right percentage shots at amateur level, or are we simply copying what the professionals do?
71 Remaining, Opponent on 169
I needed 71, and my opponent was sitting on 169.
That second number is important. It's a bogey number, meaning it cannot be finished in three darts.
My first dart hit D13, leaving 45.
My second dart hit T13, leaving 6.
So there I was, one dart remaining, needing D3 to win the match.
I threw at D3.
I missed.
At the time it seemed perfectly logical. Six remaining, D3 wins the match. What else would I do?
But afterwards I started questioning that decision.
My opponent couldn't finish 169 on their next visit. I knew I was coming back to the board.
Could I have used my final dart to hit S2, leaving D2 for my next visit?
Would that have given me a better chance of winning?
Of course, hitting S2 wasn't guaranteed either, and D2 isn't exactly everyone's favourite double. But the point is that I never even considered the alternative.
I simply saw 6 and threw at D3.
On my following visit I hit S3 and things got increasingly messy. Eventually I was struggling around D1 while my opponent worked their way down to a much nicer finish.
They won the leg and the match.
They deserved the victory, but I couldn't help thinking that I'd made the situation harder for myself.
What's Actually the Percentage Shot?
We're taught checkout routes from the moment we start taking darts seriously.
Ask most players how to finish 64, 72 or 80 and they'll have an answer.
But traditional checkout charts generally answer one question:
How can I finish this number?
Perhaps at amateur level we should sometimes ask a different question:
What gives me the best chance of winning the leg?
Those aren't necessarily the same thing.
If I'm playing somebody averaging 45 or 50, I need to consider both my remaining score and theirs.
There's a big difference between my opponent sitting on 32 and sitting on 169.
If they're on 32, passing up a match dart could be a terrible decision.
If they're on 169, I know I'm getting another visit, provided I haven't already ended the leg.
That changes the calculation.
It doesn't mean I should always refuse a difficult double. It means I should at least consider whether there's a better option.
Not All Doubles Are Equal
We all have favourite doubles.
Some players love D16 and D8. Others prefer tops. Some seem perfectly happy on D10.
And I'm fairly confident there aren't many under-60 players thinking, "Brilliant, I've left D3!"
Suppose a player records the following doubles percentages during practice:
| Double | Success rate |
|---|---|
| D16 | 28% |
| D8 | 25% |
| D20 | 23% |
| D10 | 21% |
| D2 | 17% |
| D3 | 9% |
These are hypothetical figures, not my own recorded statistics.
But they illustrate why personal finishing ability matters.
For that particular player, leaving D3 might be considerably less attractive than leaving D2 or D16.
Of course, those percentages alone don't prove that deliberately setting up another double is better than attempting D3 immediately. You also have to consider the extra dart, the risk of missing your setup shot and what happens if the opponent scores heavily.
That's what makes the decision interesting.
What Happens If You Miss?
There's another factor I've probably underestimated.
We tend to think about what happens when we hit the intended target.
Perhaps we should spend more time thinking about what happens when we miss.
D16 is a good example.
If you hit S16 instead of D16, you're left with D8.
Hit S8 instead of D8 and you've got D4.
Then D2, then D1.
It's a fairly logical progression.
Now compare that with D3.
Hit S3 while needing 6 and you're left with 3, an awkward situation that requires another setup dart before you can finish.
This is where I think the idea of route resilience becomes important.
It's not just about finding a route that works when every dart goes exactly where you intended.
It's about choosing routes where your likely misses don't leave you in a horrible position.
For players averaging under 60, that could be particularly valuable.
Look at the Other Score
Something else I'm going to try is paying more attention to my opponent's remaining score.
There are seven bogey numbers below 171:
169, 168, 166, 165, 163, 162 and 159.
None can be finished in three darts.
If your opponent is sitting on one of those numbers, you know they cannot win the leg on their next visit.
The same applies when they're above 170.
That doesn't mean you can relax completely. They could leave themselves 40 or 32 and suddenly be favourite to win the leg.
But it gives you information that should influence your decision.
Equally, 170 is a possible checkout, so we shouldn't assume a high score always means we're safe.
The important thing is to look across before throwing, rather than concentrating exclusively on our own remaining score.
Professional Routes Versus Amateur Routes
This is where things become particularly interesting to me.
We watch Luke Humphries, Luke Littler and the other top professionals and naturally try to copy their finishing routes.
But should somebody averaging 48 automatically make the same decisions as somebody averaging 105?
The professional is considerably more likely to hit the treble they're aiming for.
They're also more likely to finish an awkward double, and their opponent is far more likely to punish a missed opportunity.
At our level, those probabilities are different.
Perhaps the best checkout route isn't always universal.
Perhaps it depends on your ability, your preferred doubles and the situation in the leg.
That's something I'd like to explore further, particularly as we develop more individual performance analysis through Q4QS.
My PERCENT Approach
I've come up with a little framework to help me think about these situations.
Conveniently, it spells PERCENT.
P – Pressure: What does my opponent require?
E – Expected visits: Am I likely, or guaranteed, to return to the board?
R – Route: What sensible finishing options are available?
C – Consequences: What happens if I miss the intended target?
E – Expected double: Which double am I leaving, and how comfortable am I on it?
N – Next visit: Would improving my position give me a better chance of winning?
T – Take the shot: Make the decision and throw.
I'm obviously not planning to stand at the oche working through seven questions before every dart.
I'd probably get thrown out of the competition!
But I do think practising this way of thinking could eventually make some decisions automatic.
And perhaps it would help avoid moments like my missed D3.
One Missed Double, One Useful Lesson
I could simply put Saturday down as one of those matches.
It was 4–3. My opponent played well, I had my chances, and ultimately they took theirs.
That's darts.
But I'd rather take something useful away from it.
When I reached 6 with my opponent on 169, all I was thinking about was finishing the leg.
What I should perhaps have considered was maximising my overall chance of winning it.
There's a subtle but important difference.
Next time, I want to look at my opponent's score, consider the likely misses and think about where I'd like to be on my next visit.
Then make a decision.
Because perhaps the most important question for an under-60 darts player isn't simply:
"What's the checkout?"
It's:
"What gives me the best chance of winning the leg?"
And after Saturday, that's a question I'm going to start asking myself much more often.
