The PDC World Youth Championship takes place today, and on paper there is one name that inevitably dominates the conversation.
Luke Littler.
But rather than simply looking at reputation or the Development Tour Order of Merit, I have put the World Youth Championship field through the Q4QS database.
And it throws up a few interesting names.
The database covers darts from a wide range of levels, from the PDC and Development Tour through to ADC, WDF, Vault and other competitive events. That gives us an opportunity to look beyond prize money and ask a slightly different question:
Who is actually playing well coming into this tournament?
There is an important caveat. Not every player has played the same number or standard of events, and international qualifiers in particular may have much less Q4QS data behind them. Q4QS ranking should therefore be treated as another piece of evidence rather than a prediction of the finishing order.
But there are some fascinating numbers.
Littler is in a different statistical world
It isn't exactly a shock to discover Luke Littler at the top of the World Youth field.
Littler is No.2 in the overall Q4QS rankings, with a Q4QS average of 100.32.
His recent record in the database includes winning the World Matchplay with an event average of 111.04, and victories over Gerwyn Price, Dirk van Duijvenbode, Josh Rock and Nathan Aspinall.
Even when playing against the very best players in the world, his numbers are extraordinary.
If Littler plays anywhere near that level in Wigan, everybody else has a problem.
But youth darts – particularly short-format group and knockout matches – doesn't always follow the script.
And there are players here capable of making things uncomfortable.
Sebastian Bialecki looks the clearest challenger
If I were looking for the player whose Q4QS numbers most obviously say "challenger", it would be Sebastian Bialecki.
Bialecki is an astonishing sixth in the entire Q4QS ranking, not sixth among the World Youth field.
His Q4QS average is 93.13, and he recently won Players Championship 26 with a 94.55 tournament average.
That run included wins over Gian van Veen and Damon Heta before beating Mario Vandenbogaerde in the final.
Bialecki also finished comfortably top of the 2026 Development Tour Order of Merit.
Littler remains the player to beat, but Bialecki's numbers deserve considerable respect.
Owen Bates might be coming at exactly the right time
Another player who jumps off the Q4QS list is Owen Bates.
He is 18th overall in Q4QS, averaging 89.66, and has won nine of his last ten recorded matches.
More importantly, his most recent Development Tour event produced a run all the way to the final.
Bates averaged 90.79 across Development Tour 23, including a 96.76 average in beating Jamai van den Herik.
He eventually ran into Henry Coates in the final.
Which brings us neatly to perhaps the hottest player arriving in Wigan.
Henry Coates – don't ignore the timing
Regular readers will know Henry Coates has featured quite a bit on Q4QS recently.
There is a reason.
Coates comes into this tournament 10-0 across his last ten matches in the database after winning Development Tour 23.
He went 9-0 during that tournament and beat Bates 5-1 in the final with a 97.41 average.
His overall Q4QS ranking is 42, which already puts him in some very good company.
There are players with bigger reputations in this field.
There may not be many arriving with better momentum.
Archie Self is my first Q4QS wild card
This is where things start getting particularly interesting.
Archie Self sits only ninth on the final Development Tour Order of Merit, and 126th in Q4QS.
Neither number immediately screams tournament winner.
Look closer.
Self won Development Tour 22 with a 91.79 tournament average.
Then he reached the quarter-finals of Development Tour 23 averaging 94.32.
His recent wins include Nathan Potter with a 98.92 average and Dominik Gruellich with 97.83.
And Q4QS has him at 10 wins from his last ten recorded matches.
That's precisely the sort of player I wanted this exercise to uncover.
Archie Self is firmly on my watch list.
Sam Jackson is another
Sam Jackson is even further down the overall Q4QS rankings at 143.
Again, look underneath that number.
Jackson reached the Development Tour 22 final with a 93.63 tournament average.
During that run he beat Dylan Slevin averaging 98.35 and Owen Bates in the semi-final.
He has also subsequently reached a Challenge Tour semi-final.
His Q4QS recent record?
9-1.
Jackson is exactly the sort of player who could be overlooked in a field containing Tour Card holders and much more familiar names.
I wouldn't overlook him.
Tyler Thorpe could be hiding in plain sight
Here's another.
Tyler Thorpe is only 182nd in Q4QS, but his Q4QS average of 87.88 is considerably more interesting than that ranking might initially suggest.
He reached the Development Tour 23 semi-final, winning seven matches before eventually losing to Coates.
Immediately before that he had reached the quarter-finals of DT21 and Last 32 of DT22.
Thorpe's recent Q4QS record is 9-1.
Again, perhaps not one of the first five names most people would select.
But definitely one I'd rather avoid in the draw.
Don't forget Kaya Baysal
Kaya Baysal is another whose numbers have been moving in the right direction.
He's 95th in Q4QS, with a recent record of 9-1.
His database history includes winning the Welsh Open/Masters/Classic event with an 89.64 tournament average, while his latest Development Tour results include successive quarter-finals.
He averaged 92.67 at DT22 and 89.47 at DT23.
Baysal has also demonstrated the ability to produce considerably more, including a 96.48 tournament average in his DT21 appearance.
Another dangerous player.
Dominik Gruellich has a ceiling worth watching
Dominik Gruellich is 74th in Q4QS and 9-1 across his latest ten matches.
The German has already shown that his top level can move into serious numbers.
At Development Tour 22 he reached the quarter-finals averaging 93.32, with individual wins recorded at 98.31 and 98.15.
That's significant in short-format darts.
If that Gruellich turns up, he can hurt people.
And then there is Nathan Potter
Potter is 55th in Q4QS, another extremely high position considering the thousands of players in the wider database.
He reached the DT22 semi-final averaging 88.68 and produced a 99.62 average against Kaya Baysal.
His recent Q4QS record is 8-2.
Another player who probably deserves more attention than he'll receive in many previews.
A few more Q4QS names to watch
There are several others I wouldn't want to dismiss.
Charlie Manby is 49th in Q4QS with a 90.79 Q4QS average and an 8-2 recent record.
Cam Crabtree is 46th, with recent victories over established PDC players Stefan Bellmont and Krzysztof Ratajski.
James Beeton is 54th and 8-2.
Dylan Slevin is 84th, also 8-2, and reached the DT22 semi-final.
Jamai van den Herik is 110th but comes in at 9-1, having reached the semi-finals of both DT21 and DT23.
And Lenny Schlueter deserves a mention. He's 175th in Q4QS, but won DT20 and recently averaged 89.94 on his way to the Last 32 of DT23.
Those aren't predictions that all of them will go deep.
They're warning signs.
The Q4QS five to watch
Leaving Littler and Bialecki aside, if I had to select five players from the numbers who particularly interest me, I'd go with:
Owen Bates – Q4QS No.18 and 9-1 recently.
Henry Coates – Q4QS No.42, DT23 champion and 10-0.
Archie Self – DT22 champion, huge recent numbers and 10-0.
Sam Jackson – DT22 finalist with a 93.63 event average and 9-1.
Tyler Thorpe – DT23 semi-finalist and 9-1.
And if I'm allowed a sixth, Kaya Baysal gets it.
That isn't necessarily my predicted top six. It's the group whose current numbers make me particularly interested to see what happens today.
That's why I built Q4QS
This tournament is actually a very good example of what I want Q4QS to do.
We all know Luke Littler.
Most darts followers know Sebastian Bialecki, Keane Barry and many of the leading Development Tour players.
But a ranking based purely on prize money doesn't always tell us who is playing best right now.
Archie Self at 10-0.
Sam Jackson at 9-1.
Tyler Thorpe at 9-1.
Henry Coates coming directly from a Development Tour title.
Those are the little clues I'm interested in.
Perhaps Littler steamrollers everybody and makes all of this irrelevant.
But somewhere among 128 young players there will almost certainly be someone who goes much further than most people expect.
Hopefully Q4QS has just given us a few clues as to who it might be.
