Two Development Tour events have been played since I last ran the numbers.
At that point, with four tournaments remaining, Jack Drayton looked extremely secure, Leon Weber held the edge for the second Tour Card, and James Beeton was the main challenger.
Now we are down to DT23 and DT24, with a maximum of £6,000 still available to any one player.
So I ran the final two events another 50,000 times.
And the race has changed quite a bit.
The latest Order of Merit
After DT22, the leading positions are:
Sebastian Bialecki – £21,900
Jack Drayton – £12,100
Cam Crabtree – £11,900
Leon Weber – £11,350
Jamai van den Herik – £11,000
Jurjen van der Velde – £10,350
Dominik Gruellich – £10,300
James Beeton – £9,950
Archie Self – £9,450
Owen Bates – £9,200
Bialecki has now mathematically secured first place on the overall Development Tour Order of Merit.
Drayton can only reach £18,100 even if he wins both remaining tournaments, so Bialecki cannot be caught.
But, as I explained in the first article, the overall standings are not the same as the Tour Card race.
Several players near the top already hold Tour Cards.
That means we have to look at which eligible players are most likely to finish high enough to collect the two new cards.
The new Tour Card probabilities
After 50,000 simulations of DT23 and DT24:
| Player | Current Prize Money | Tour Card Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Jack Drayton | £12,100 | 95.91% |
| Leon Weber | £11,350 | 51.96% |
| Jamai van den Herik | £11,000 | 19.80% |
| James Beeton | £9,950 | 15.42% |
| Dominik Gruellich | £10,300 | 10.63% |
| Archie Self | £9,450 | 4.15% |
| Nathan Potter | £8,100 | 1.29% |
| Dylan Slevin | £8,300 | 0.65% |
| Henry Coates | £6,050 | 0.07% |
The big story is that the second Tour Card is now properly up for grabs.
Drayton is still in control
Jack Drayton remains in by far the strongest position.
Before the weekend started, his Tour Card chance was 98.27%.
That is now 95.91%.
So his position has weakened very slightly, but not by much.
He remains overwhelmingly likely to leave the Development Tour with a card.
He does not need to win one of the final events.
He simply needs to avoid the sort of combination where several of the players immediately behind him make very deep runs.
Weber is now almost a coin flip
This is where the race gets much more interesting.
Leon Weber started the weekend with a 56.78% chance of earning one of the two cards.
After two events, that has moved to 51.96%.
That is basically a coin flip.
Weber is still the favourite for the second available card, but there is now a very realistic chance that somebody moves past him over the final two tournaments.
And there are several players capable of doing it.
Van den Herik is the biggest mover
Jamai van den Herik has been the major winner so far.
Before DT21, his Tour Card probability was only 3.69%.
He is now up to 19.80%.
That is a huge change.
His prize money has risen from £9,250 to £11,000, and with only two events remaining he is now firmly in the conversation.
A deep run in either of the final two events could completely change the picture.
Beeton has slipped back
James Beeton has gone the other way.
He started the weekend with a 29.48% chance of winning a Tour Card.
That is now down to 15.42%.
The important point is that Beeton has not fallen away completely.
He is still very much alive.
But other players have moved around him, particularly Van den Herik and Gruellich, and with only two tournaments left there is less time to respond.
Gruellich is still dangerous
Dominik Gruellich now has a 10.63% Tour Card chance.
That is actually slightly higher than his pre-weekend number of 8.34%.
So while he has not made the same jump as Van den Herik, he remains a genuine threat.
With £3,000 available for winning one tournament, a single big run could take him from outsider to serious contender.
Archie Self has suddenly entered the race
Archie Self is another player who deserves a mention.
He started this final block on £6,450.
He is now up to £9,450.
That has taken his Tour Card chance to 4.15%.
That still makes him an outsider, but he is no longer just a mathematical footnote.
Two events remain.
If he produces another big run, that number could move very quickly.
The second card is wide open
The battle now looks like this:
Leon Weber – 51.96%
Jamai van den Herik – 19.80%
James Beeton – 15.42%
Dominik Gruellich – 10.63%
Archie Self – 4.15%
That is much more open than it looked two events ago.
Weber is still favourite.
But it would not be a surprise now if somebody else took the second card.
The World Championship picture
The World Championship race looks different again.
Using the current qualification picture:
| Player | World Championship Chance |
|---|---|
| Jack Drayton | 94.62% |
| Cam Crabtree | 85.86% |
| Leon Weber | 38.94% |
| Owen Bates | 17.25% |
| Jamai van den Herik | 16.33% |
| Jurjen van der Velde | 16.00% |
| James Beeton | 14.89% |
| Dominik Gruellich | 10.29% |
| Archie Self | 3.98% |
| Nathan Potter | 1.14% |
These percentages need the same caveat as before.
They are based on the current World Championship qualification picture.
If a player later qualifies for Ally Pally through another route, a Development Tour place can move further down the Order of Merit.
So the World Championship percentages are more fluid than the Tour Card numbers.
That matters particularly for current Tour Card holders, because they can still occupy Development Tour World Championship places even though they are not part of the new Tour Card race.
Crabtree remains a huge factor
Cam Crabtree is the clearest example.
He is not competing for one of the two new Development Tour Tour Cards.
But he still has an 85.86% chance of taking one of the Development Tour World Championship places on the current qualification picture.
That means he can have a major influence on the Worlds race without affecting the new Tour Card race in the same way.
The same applies to players such as Jurjen van der Velde and Owen Bates.
Two events left
There are now only two opportunities remaining.
A tournament winner receives £3,000.
A finalist gets £2,000.
That is enough money to change the table very quickly.
But there is no longer much time to recover from an early exit.
That is why the current positions matter so much more now than they did before DT21.
Drayton is close.
Weber still has the advantage.
Van den Herik has transformed his position.
Beeton is still alive but under more pressure.
Gruellich remains dangerous.
And Self has suddenly given himself a chance.
The final two Development Tour events should be fascinating.
