The final four events of the 2026 PDC Development Tour are about to decide far more than just the Order of Merit.
Two players will earn two-year Tour Cards for 2027 and 2028, while three players will also receive places in the 2026/27 PDC World Championship.
But the Development Tour race is more complicated than simply looking at who sits first, second and third.
A number of current Tour Card holders are competing on the Development Tour, and some players may also qualify for the World Championship through other routes.
So I have run the final four events 50,000 times, using the current Development Tour Order of Merit and Q4QS player-strength data, to see who is most likely to actually come away with the major prizes.
How the simulation works
There are four Development Tour events remaining.
Each event carries the following prize money:
Winner – £3,000
Runner-up – £2,000
Semi-finalists – £1,000
Quarter-finalists – £750
Last 16 – £350
Last 32 – £250
Last 64 – £100
That means a player could theoretically add a maximum of £12,000 over the final weekend.
The model uses the full Development Tour field rather than just the players in the qualification race.
That is important.
Players such as Sebastian Bialecki, Cam Crabtree and other current Tour Card holders can still win tournaments, reach finals and knock rivals out even if they are not themselves competing for one of the new Tour Cards.
The simulations were weighted using current Q4QS playing strength, averages and recent form.
For example, Bialecki currently sits sixth in the Q4QS rankings with a 93.13 average, while Crabtree is averaging 89.13 and Charlie Manby 90.94. tournament_narrative_pack_20261… tournament_narrative_pack_20261…
The current qualification picture
After Development Tour 20, Sebastian Bialecki leads the overall Order of Merit on £21,900.
But he is already a Tour Card holder, so his position does not occupy one of the two new Tour Card places.
That is where the Development Tour becomes particularly interesting.
Jack Drayton currently has £12,100, Cam Crabtree £11,650 and Leon Weber £11,100.
However, Crabtree is already carded.
That means Drayton and Weber currently occupy the first two available Tour Card positions.
James Beeton, Dominik Gruellich and others are chasing behind them.
Tour Card probabilities
After running the final four events 50,000 times, this is how often each player received one of the two available new Tour Cards.
| Player | Current Prize Money | Tour Card Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Jack Drayton | £12,100 | 98.27% |
| Leon Weber | £11,100 | 56.78% |
| James Beeton | £9,600 | 29.48% |
| Dominik Gruellich | £9,200 | 8.34% |
| Jamai van den Herik | £9,250 | 3.69% |
| Nathan Potter | £7,100 | 2.46% |
| Henry Coates | £5,800 | 0.70% |
| Dylan Slevin | £6,550 | 0.19% |
Current Tour Card holders are not included in those percentages because they are not competing for one of the two new cards.
Jack Drayton is in a very strong position
Drayton's £12,100 starting total gives him a significant advantage.
He earned one of the two Tour Cards in 98.27% of the simulations.
That does not mean he cannot be caught.
There is still £12,000 available and four full tournaments to play.
But the combination of his current money advantage and playing strength means it requires a fairly unusual sequence of results for two eligible players to finish ahead of him.
Drayton also arrives in excellent form.
The latest Q4QS data shows him on a ten-match winning run, with recent title-winning performances included in the database. tournament_narrative_pack_20261…
Weber versus Beeton looks like the key battle
The second Tour Card is far less settled.
Leon Weber receives a card in 56.78% of simulations.
James Beeton gets one in 29.48%.
That makes their battle perhaps the most important storyline of the weekend.
Weber starts £1,500 ahead of Beeton, but four tournaments provide plenty of opportunities for that gap to disappear.
A single final is worth £2,000.
A tournament victory is worth £3,000.
So one deep run from Beeton combined with an early Weber exit could change the race immediately.
Gruellich is still very much involved
Dominik Gruellich sits on £9,200 and earns a Tour Card in 8.34% of simulations.
That may not sound huge, but it is far from negligible.
With four tournaments remaining, an 8% chance represents a genuine route into the top qualifying positions.
Gruellich has also shown strong scoring at this level, including a 95.43 match average at Development Tour 20 in the Q4QS data. tournament_narrative_pack_20261…
Jamai van den Herik is next at 3.69%, while Nathan Potter remains alive at 2.46%.
Existing Tour Card holders matter enormously
This is the major difference between the Development Tour and the Challenge Tour.
Several of the strongest players in the field already have Tour Cards.
They cannot claim one of the two new cards, but they can still have a huge influence on who does.
If Bialecki wins an event, for example, he takes £3,000 from the available prize pool and eliminates every opponent he meets along the way.
The same applies to Crabtree, Jurjen van der Velde, Owen Bates and other existing card holders.
That means a player does not necessarily need to finish second overall on the Order of Merit to earn the second available Tour Card.
He needs to finish high enough among the eligible players.
The official rules state that the top two players on the final Development Tour Order of Merit who have not otherwise qualified for Tour Cards for 2027 receive two-year Tour Cards. If a player above them has already qualified for a card, the place moves further down the Order of Merit. PDPA
The World Championship race
The World Championship calculation produces a very different picture.
| Player | World Championship Chance |
|---|---|
| Jack Drayton | 94.13% |
| Cam Crabtree | 82.82% |
| Jurjen van der Velde | 33.27% |
| Owen Bates | 32.11% |
| Leon Weber | 27.70% |
| James Beeton | 20.62% |
| Dominik Gruellich | 5.37% |
| Jamai van den Herik | 2.15% |
| Nathan Potter | 1.69% |
| Dylan Slevin | 0.11% |
This is where an important caveat is required.
World Championship caveat
These percentages are based on the current qualification position.
The official rule is that the three highest-ranked players on the final Development Tour Order of Merit receive World Championship invitations.
However, if one of those players qualifies for the World Championship through another route, or rejects the invitation, the Development Tour place passes further down the Order of Merit until all three places are filled. PDPA
That means the World Championship probabilities are less fixed than the Tour Card probabilities.
A player who currently appears to be occupying one of the Development Tour World Championship places could later qualify through the ProTour Order of Merit, Main Order of Merit or another recognised route.
If that happens, the Development Tour invitation would move to the next eligible player.
So the percentages above should be read as:
"Chance of taking a Development Tour World Championship position based on the qualification picture as it stands now."
They may change if players secure World Championship places elsewhere before the Development Tour qualification is finalised.
That is particularly important because some Development Tour players are also active on the ProTour.
Crabtree illustrates the difference perfectly
Cam Crabtree is one of the clearest examples of why the two races need to be treated separately.
He cannot win one of the new Development Tour Tour Cards because he already holds a card.
But he can still qualify for the World Championship through the Development Tour.
The simulation gives him an 82.82% chance of taking one of those three places based on the current situation.
So Crabtree is effectively irrelevant to the Tour Card race but extremely important to the World Championship race.
Van der Velde and Bates are similar
Jurjen van der Velde and Owen Bates are also existing Tour Card holders.
Neither is competing for one of the two new cards.
But both are strongly involved in the World Championship race.
Van der Velde qualifies in 33.27% of simulations.
Bates is at 32.11%.
Their presence is another reason why Leon Weber's Tour Card probability is much higher than his World Championship probability.
Weber may finish behind existing card holders and still receive a Tour Card.
For the World Championship, those same players can occupy qualifying places themselves.
Drayton has the best of both worlds
Jack Drayton is currently in the strongest overall position.
He receives a new Tour Card in 98.27% of simulations.
He also takes a World Championship place in 94.13%.
For everyone else, the two races start to diverge considerably.
Leon Weber has a 56.78% Tour Card chance but only a 27.70% World Championship chance.
James Beeton stands at 29.48% for a card and 20.62% for the Worlds.
That difference is almost entirely created by the existing Tour Card holders above and around them.
Why this weekend could move quickly
Four Development Tour tournaments means four separate draws.
A player can earn £3,000 in one event and nothing in the next.
That makes the final weekend extremely volatile.
Weber starts only £1,500 ahead of Beeton.
Beeton is only £350 ahead of Van den Herik and £400 ahead of Gruellich.
One tournament could completely change that section of the table.
And because some of the strongest players are already Tour Card holders, the finishing order itself does not tell the whole story.
What I will be watching
The first question is whether Jack Drayton can make his position mathematically secure.
After that, the biggest Tour Card battle appears to be Leon Weber versus James Beeton, with Dominik Gruellich waiting for an opportunity.
The World Championship race is wider.
Crabtree, Weber, Van der Velde, Bates and Beeton are all heavily involved, while qualification elsewhere could potentially move the cut-off further down the table.
That is why this Development Tour finale could be even more interesting than the Challenge Tour finish.
There are effectively two races taking place on the same Order of Merit.
One for new Tour Cards.
One for Alexandra Palace.
And the players occupying those positions do not necessarily have to be the same.
