After chatting with a few of my darts friends recently, we ended up discussing one of the most common statistics in the game – the average.
The more I think about it, the more I believe averages can sometimes be misleading.
Don't get me wrong, I still use averages and think they are useful as a rough guide. But I don't believe they always tell the full story.
Take a match where both players get stuck on double one for several visits. The average can suddenly collapse, even though neither player was actually throwing badly for most of the leg. Once you've had several turns at a stubborn double, it's almost impossible to recover to a respectable average.
On the other hand, if you're playing a professional-level player, there's a good chance your average will naturally rise. Why? Because they tend to leave cleaner finishes and finish legs more efficiently, meaning there are fewer low-scoring visits around the doubles.
So here's an idea I've been thinking about: a "True Average".
The concept is simple.
Take all of your match averages from a tournament.
Split them into three equal groups:
- Lowest third
- Middle third
- Highest third
Then remove the highest third and the lowest third.
The remaining middle third becomes your True Average.
The theory is that this removes both the exceptionally good performances and the exceptionally bad performances, leaving a figure that better represents your normal standard.
For example, imagine a player records the following nine match averages in a tournament:
41.2, 48.5, 52.0, 55.1, 57.8, 59.4, 62.3, 70.5, 81.7
The standard tournament average would be:
58.7
Now split them into thirds:
Lowest third:
41.2, 48.5, 52.0
Middle third:
55.1, 57.8, 59.4
Highest third:
62.3, 70.5, 81.7
Discard the highest and lowest thirds.
Average the middle three numbers:
55.1 + 57.8 + 59.4 = 172.3
172.3 ÷ 3 = 57.4
So:
Tournament Average: 58.7
True Average: 57.4
In this example, the player had one very strong performance (81.7) which inflated the normal average slightly. The True Average gives a figure that may be closer to their typical level.
Would it replace traditional averages? Probably not.
But as an additional statistic, I think it could be a really useful way of measuring consistency and identifying a player's genuine standard over time.
I'd be interested to hear what other players think. Is there room in darts for a True Average?
