Two Events Left: Sherrock Closes In on Ally Pally — and Hayter Is Nearly Home If Beau Qualifies Elsewhere

 

The final PDC Women’s Series weekend is halfway through.

Two events have been completed, two remain, and the race for the World Championship places has tightened considerably.

Before the weekend, I ran the final four Women’s Series events 50,000 times using the current Order of Merit, the actual entry field and Q4QS player-strength data.

Now, with only two tournaments left, I have run the finish another 50,000 times.

And the position is becoming much clearer.

The standings with two events left

After WS22, the leading positions are:

Pos	Player	Prize Money
1	Beau Greaves	£39,700
2	Lisa Ashton	£17,750
3	Fallon Sherrock	£12,900
4	Gemma Hayter	£10,600
5	Vicky Pruim	£8,450
6	Deta Hedman	£7,300
7	Kirsi Viinikainen	£6,100
8	Jade Gofford	£6,100
9	Rhian O’Sullivan	£6,000
10	Trina Gulliver	£5,900

With only WS23 and WS24 remaining, a player can add a maximum of £5,000.

That makes the existing gaps much more important than they were at the start of the weekend.

Scenario One: Beau needs her Women’s Series place

If Beau Greaves does not qualify for the World Championship through another route, she takes one of the three Women’s Series places.

The updated 50,000-run simulation gives:

Player	Current Prize Money	World Championship Chance
Beau Greaves	£39,700	100.00%
Lisa Ashton	£17,750	100.00%
Fallon Sherrock	£12,900	96.46%
Gemma Hayter	£10,600	3.51%
Vicky Pruim	£8,450	0.03%

This means the likely trio is now very clear.

Beau and Lisa are effectively secure.

Fallon has strengthened her position further.

Sherrock’s position is stronger than it was

Before the weekend began, Sherrock’s World Championship probability in this scenario was 94.81%.

With two events remaining, that has risen to 96.46%.

Hayter has moved the other way.

Her chance has dropped from 4.91% to 3.51%.

So the gap has not closed.

It has actually become slightly more difficult for Hayter.

What does Hayter need?

Hayter is still alive.

She sits on £10,600, which is £2,300 behind Sherrock.

With £2,500 available for an event win, one huge run could still change the picture.

But the important difference now is time.

There are only two events left.

So Hayter needs both a strong performance of her own and Sherrock to fail to make much progress.

That combination does happen in the simulation, but not very often.

Scenario Two: Beau qualifies through the main PDC route

This remains the more interesting alternative scenario.

If Beau qualifies for the World Championship elsewhere, she does not need to take a Women’s Series place.

That means three other women qualify from the Women’s Series Order of Merit.

The updated simulation gives:

Player	World Championship Chance
Lisa Ashton	100.00%
Fallon Sherrock	100.00%
Gemma Hayter	97.23%
Vicky Pruim	2.66%
Rhian O’Sullivan	0.07%
Kirsi Viinikainen	0.02%
Karolina Ratajska	0.01%

This race has moved significantly.

Before the weekend, Hayter had an 88.80% chance of taking that extra place.

She is now up to 97.23%.

That makes her very close to home.

Pruim still has a route

Vicky Pruim is now the clear main danger to Hayter if Beau qualifies elsewhere.

Pruim sits on £8,450, £2,150 behind Hayter.

Her simulation chance is 2.66%.

That is small, but not zero.

One title would add £2,500 and immediately change the arithmetic.

Again, though, with only two events left there is very little margin for error.

The rest need something extraordinary

Rhian O’Sullivan, Kirsi Viinikainen and Karolina Ratajska are still mathematically alive in the Beau-qualifies-elsewhere scenario.

But their simulation chances are now extremely small.

O’Sullivan is at 0.07%.

Viinikainen is at 0.02%.

Ratajska is at 0.01%.

At this stage, they would need something very unusual to happen.

Deta Hedman remains frozen

Deta Hedman is still sitting on £7,300.

But because she is not in this weekend’s entry field, that total is fixed.

She cannot add any more prize money.

That means she can still affect where others sit on the table, but she cannot actively chase a qualification place herself over the final two events.

The race is nearly decided

With two events left, the picture now looks like this.

If Beau needs a Women’s Series place:

Beau Greaves
Lisa Ashton
Fallon Sherrock

are overwhelming favourites to qualify.

If Beau qualifies through the main PDC route:

Lisa Ashton
Fallon Sherrock
Gemma Hayter

are overwhelming favourites to take the three Women’s Series places.

That means the final two events are now much more about whether somebody can produce a last-minute upset.

Sherrock is nearly safe.

Hayter is nearly safe in the alternative Beau scenario.

And the chasing pack needs something special.

From four events to two

This is also a good example of how quickly these probabilities change.

Before the weekend:

Sherrock — 94.81%
Hayter — 4.91%

if Beau needed her place.

Now:

Sherrock — 96.46%
Hayter — 3.51%

And if Beau qualifies elsewhere:

Hayter — 88.80% before the weekend
Hayter — 97.23% now

So the first two events have not blown the race open.

They have made it more predictable.

But with £5,000 still available over the final two tournaments, there is just enough left for one final twist.