Twelve players, one title, and a rather interesting set of statistics.
With MODUS Super Series Champions Week about to begin, I've been looking through my separate Q4QS MODUS database to see whether the numbers tell us anything that might not be obvious from the names involved.
And there are a few surprises.
Rather than relying on reputation or general darts rankings, I've compared the players' recorded MODUS performances, including their overall averages, recent form and previous meetings.
There is one important qualification: my database currently contains ten of the twelve qualifying weeks from Series 15, so this is not a complete statistical record of the current series. However, it does give us plenty of historical MODUS performances to examine.
The twelve finalists compared
Averages are three-dart match averages from the database's calculated player statistics. Last 20 is each player's latest recorded MODUS matches, not necessarily their latest matches in all competitions.
Player | MODUS matches | Overall avg | Last 20 avg | Last 20 wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Darren Beveridge | 19 | 95.73 | 95.73* | 16/19 |
Derek Coulson | 286 | 93.66 | 94.80 | 16/20 |
Andy Baetens | 61 | 92.19 | 94.18 | 15/20 |
Danny Ayres | 56 | 89.65 | 92.68 | 13/20 |
Archie Self | 109 | 89.33 | 95.65 | 13/20 |
Ted Evetts | 133 | 88.90 | 88.55 | 13/20 |
Scott Robertson | 75 | 89.74 | 88.60 | 16/20 |
Neil Duff | 466 | 87.30 | 86.44 | 15/20 |
Scott Campbell | 156 | 86.83 | 88.53 | 14/20 |
Michael Wiles | 27 | 86.53 | 86.46 | 12/20 |
David Davies | 210 | 85.86 | 90.11 | 13/20 |
Benito van de Pas | 29 | 83.86 | 85.64 | 15/20 |
Beveridge has only 19 matches recorded, so his last-20 figure covers those 19.
The biggest takeaway is that the recent-form picture is quite different from the overall rankings. Archie Self's 95.65 over his latest 20 matches is particularly impressive compared with his longer-term 89.33.
Beveridge sets the average benchmark
Darren Beveridge tops the overall average comparison with 95.73.
That's an impressive figure, although his sample of 19 matches is considerably smaller than that of several other finalists.
He has won 16 of those 19 matches, an 84.2% success rate.
If he maintains that combination of scoring and winning, he will be difficult to stop.
Coulson has the experience and the numbers
Derek Coulson is perhaps the most convincing contender when we combine average and sample size.
Across 286 recorded MODUS matches, he has averaged 93.66 and won 207.
His last 20 matches are even more encouraging: 16 victories and a 94.80 average.
Maintaining those figures across so many appearances is no small achievement.
Coulson also has previous experience against several of the other finalists, something which could become important as the week develops.
Archie Self's recent scoring deserves attention
One of the most interesting figures belongs to Archie Self.
His overall MODUS average is 89.33 across 109 matches, but that rises to 95.65 over his latest 20 recorded matches.
That's a substantial difference.
It suggests that judging Self solely on his longer-term average could underestimate his current scoring ability.
He has won 13 of those last 20 matches, so his recent scoring hasn't translated into quite as high a win percentage as Coulson or Beveridge.
Nevertheless, that scoring level makes him a serious contender.
Baetens is another strong challenger
Andy Baetens has recorded 61 MODUS matches, winning 44 and averaging 92.19.
His latest 20 matches show an improvement to 94.18, alongside 15 victories.
That puts him among the strongest players when we look at both recent scoring and results.
If he brings that level into Champions Week, he has every reason to be confident.
Don't overlook the others
Danny Ayres has a 92.68 average across his latest 20 recorded MODUS matches, which puts him firmly in the conversation.
Scott Robertson has won 16 of his latest 20, matching Coulson's recent win total, although his average of 88.60 is lower.
Neil Duff has an extraordinary amount of MODUS experience in this comparison, with 466 recorded matches. His recent 15 wins from 20 show that he remains competitive.
David Davies is another interesting case. His overall average is 85.86, but his latest 20 matches average 90.11.
That is precisely the sort of difference I wanted this analysis to identify.
And Michael Wiles, Scott Campbell, Ted Evetts and Benito van de Pas all have records suggesting they shouldn't be dismissed simply because others have stronger headline figures.
What about previous meetings?
This is where the database becomes particularly useful.
Coulson and Scott Robertson have met seven times in the recorded MODUS data, with Coulson leading 4–3.
Coulson and Neil Duff have met six times, with their record level at three wins apiece.
Archie Self leads Scott Campbell 3–2 across five meetings, while Coulson leads Self 2–1.
Those results don't guarantee anything this week, but they do remind us that some of the players have already demonstrated an ability to beat one another.
And with several days of competition ahead, those familiar match-ups could become significant.
My statistical shortlist
Based on the available MODUS evidence, four players particularly interest me.
Derek Coulson has the strongest combination of long-term scoring, substantial match history and recent results.
Darren Beveridge has the highest average and best recorded win percentage, although his sample is much smaller.
Andy Baetens combines a strong overall record with excellent recent form.
Archie Self is the player whose recent scoring stands out most sharply against his longer-term numbers.
If I had to choose one player whose statistics might surprise people, it would be Self.
But this isn't a prediction that the title is his. It's an observation that his recent MODUS scoring deserves serious attention.
The real test begins now
Statistics can tell us who has performed well, but they cannot guarantee what happens next.
Champions Week brings different opponents, different pressures and a different challenge from winning an individual qualifying week.
That's what makes it worth following.
I'll be watching how these twelve players perform against their historical numbers, whether the leading scorers maintain their standards, and whether somebody further down the averages produces the performances of their life.
The Q4QS numbers point towards Coulson, Beveridge, Baetens and Self. But will the darts follow the statistics?
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