Two Events Left: 50,000 Simulations Show the Development Tour Card Race Has Blown Wide Open

 

Two Development Tour events have been played since I last ran the numbers.

At that point, with four tournaments remaining, Jack Drayton looked extremely secure, Leon Weber held the edge for the second Tour Card, and James Beeton was the main challenger.

Now we are down to DT23 and DT24, with a maximum of £6,000 still available to any one player.

So I ran the final two events another 50,000 times.

And the race has changed quite a bit.

The latest Order of Merit

After DT22, the leading positions are:

Sebastian Bialecki – £21,900
Jack Drayton – £12,100
Cam Crabtree – £11,900
Leon Weber – £11,350
Jamai van den Herik – £11,000
Jurjen van der Velde – £10,350
Dominik Gruellich – £10,300
James Beeton – £9,950
Archie Self – £9,450
Owen Bates – £9,200

Bialecki has now mathematically secured first place on the overall Development Tour Order of Merit.

Drayton can only reach £18,100 even if he wins both remaining tournaments, so Bialecki cannot be caught.

But, as I explained in the first article, the overall standings are not the same as the Tour Card race.

Several players near the top already hold Tour Cards.

That means we have to look at which eligible players are most likely to finish high enough to collect the two new cards.

The new Tour Card probabilities

After 50,000 simulations of DT23 and DT24:

Player	Current Prize Money	Tour Card Chance
Jack Drayton	£12,100	95.91%
Leon Weber	£11,350	51.96%
Jamai van den Herik	£11,000	19.80%
James Beeton	£9,950	15.42%
Dominik Gruellich	£10,300	10.63%
Archie Self	£9,450	4.15%
Nathan Potter	£8,100	1.29%
Dylan Slevin	£8,300	0.65%
Henry Coates	£6,050	0.07%

The big story is that the second Tour Card is now properly up for grabs.

Drayton is still in control

Jack Drayton remains in by far the strongest position.

Before the weekend started, his Tour Card chance was 98.27%.

That is now 95.91%.

So his position has weakened very slightly, but not by much.

He remains overwhelmingly likely to leave the Development Tour with a card.

He does not need to win one of the final events.

He simply needs to avoid the sort of combination where several of the players immediately behind him make very deep runs.

Weber is now almost a coin flip

This is where the race gets much more interesting.

Leon Weber started the weekend with a 56.78% chance of earning one of the two cards.

After two events, that has moved to 51.96%.

That is basically a coin flip.

Weber is still the favourite for the second available card, but there is now a very realistic chance that somebody moves past him over the final two tournaments.

And there are several players capable of doing it.

Van den Herik is the biggest mover

Jamai van den Herik has been the major winner so far.

Before DT21, his Tour Card probability was only 3.69%.

He is now up to 19.80%.

That is a huge change.

His prize money has risen from £9,250 to £11,000, and with only two events remaining he is now firmly in the conversation.

A deep run in either of the final two events could completely change the picture.

Beeton has slipped back

James Beeton has gone the other way.

He started the weekend with a 29.48% chance of winning a Tour Card.

That is now down to 15.42%.

The important point is that Beeton has not fallen away completely.

He is still very much alive.

But other players have moved around him, particularly Van den Herik and Gruellich, and with only two tournaments left there is less time to respond.

Gruellich is still dangerous

Dominik Gruellich now has a 10.63% Tour Card chance.

That is actually slightly higher than his pre-weekend number of 8.34%.

So while he has not made the same jump as Van den Herik, he remains a genuine threat.

With £3,000 available for winning one tournament, a single big run could take him from outsider to serious contender.

Archie Self has suddenly entered the race

Archie Self is another player who deserves a mention.

He started this final block on £6,450.

He is now up to £9,450.

That has taken his Tour Card chance to 4.15%.

That still makes him an outsider, but he is no longer just a mathematical footnote.

Two events remain.

If he produces another big run, that number could move very quickly.

The second card is wide open

The battle now looks like this:

Leon Weber – 51.96%
Jamai van den Herik – 19.80%
James Beeton – 15.42%
Dominik Gruellich – 10.63%
Archie Self – 4.15%

That is much more open than it looked two events ago.

Weber is still favourite.

But it would not be a surprise now if somebody else took the second card.

The World Championship picture

The World Championship race looks different again.

Using the current qualification picture:

Player	World Championship Chance
Jack Drayton	94.62%
Cam Crabtree	85.86%
Leon Weber	38.94%
Owen Bates	17.25%
Jamai van den Herik	16.33%
Jurjen van der Velde	16.00%
James Beeton	14.89%
Dominik Gruellich	10.29%
Archie Self	3.98%
Nathan Potter	1.14%

These percentages need the same caveat as before.

They are based on the current World Championship qualification picture.

If a player later qualifies for Ally Pally through another route, a Development Tour place can move further down the Order of Merit.

So the World Championship percentages are more fluid than the Tour Card numbers.

That matters particularly for current Tour Card holders, because they can still occupy Development Tour World Championship places even though they are not part of the new Tour Card race.

Crabtree remains a huge factor

Cam Crabtree is the clearest example.

He is not competing for one of the two new Development Tour Tour Cards.

But he still has an 85.86% chance of taking one of the Development Tour World Championship places on the current qualification picture.

That means he can have a major influence on the Worlds race without affecting the new Tour Card race in the same way.

The same applies to players such as Jurjen van der Velde and Owen Bates.

Two events left

There are now only two opportunities remaining.

A tournament winner receives £3,000.

A finalist gets £2,000.

That is enough money to change the table very quickly.

But there is no longer much time to recover from an early exit.

That is why the current positions matter so much more now than they did before DT21.

Drayton is close.

Weber still has the advantage.

Van den Herik has transformed his position.

Beeton is still alive but under more pressure.

Gruellich remains dangerous.

And Self has suddenly given himself a chance.

The final two Development Tour events should be fascinating.

50,000 Simulations: Who Will Win the 2026 Development Tour Tour Cards?

 

The final four events of the 2026 PDC Development Tour are about to decide far more than just the Order of Merit.

Two players will earn two-year Tour Cards for 2027 and 2028, while three players will also receive places in the 2026/27 PDC World Championship.

But the Development Tour race is more complicated than simply looking at who sits first, second and third.

A number of current Tour Card holders are competing on the Development Tour, and some players may also qualify for the World Championship through other routes.

So I have run the final four events 50,000 times, using the current Development Tour Order of Merit and Q4QS player-strength data, to see who is most likely to actually come away with the major prizes.

How the simulation works

There are four Development Tour events remaining.

Each event carries the following prize money:

Winner – £3,000
Runner-up – £2,000
Semi-finalists – £1,000
Quarter-finalists – £750
Last 16 – £350
Last 32 – £250
Last 64 – £100

That means a player could theoretically add a maximum of £12,000 over the final weekend.

The model uses the full Development Tour field rather than just the players in the qualification race.

That is important.

Players such as Sebastian Bialecki, Cam Crabtree and other current Tour Card holders can still win tournaments, reach finals and knock rivals out even if they are not themselves competing for one of the new Tour Cards.

The simulations were weighted using current Q4QS playing strength, averages and recent form.

For example, Bialecki currently sits sixth in the Q4QS rankings with a 93.13 average, while Crabtree is averaging 89.13 and Charlie Manby 90.94. tournament_narrative_pack_20261… tournament_narrative_pack_20261…

The current qualification picture

After Development Tour 20, Sebastian Bialecki leads the overall Order of Merit on £21,900.

But he is already a Tour Card holder, so his position does not occupy one of the two new Tour Card places.

That is where the Development Tour becomes particularly interesting.

Jack Drayton currently has £12,100, Cam Crabtree £11,650 and Leon Weber £11,100.

However, Crabtree is already carded.

That means Drayton and Weber currently occupy the first two available Tour Card positions.

James Beeton, Dominik Gruellich and others are chasing behind them.

Tour Card probabilities

After running the final four events 50,000 times, this is how often each player received one of the two available new Tour Cards.

Player	Current Prize Money	Tour Card Chance
Jack Drayton	£12,100	98.27%
Leon Weber	£11,100	56.78%
James Beeton	£9,600	29.48%
Dominik Gruellich	£9,200	8.34%
Jamai van den Herik	£9,250	3.69%
Nathan Potter	£7,100	2.46%
Henry Coates	£5,800	0.70%
Dylan Slevin	£6,550	0.19%

Current Tour Card holders are not included in those percentages because they are not competing for one of the two new cards.

Jack Drayton is in a very strong position

Drayton's £12,100 starting total gives him a significant advantage.

He earned one of the two Tour Cards in 98.27% of the simulations.

That does not mean he cannot be caught.

There is still £12,000 available and four full tournaments to play.

But the combination of his current money advantage and playing strength means it requires a fairly unusual sequence of results for two eligible players to finish ahead of him.

Drayton also arrives in excellent form.

The latest Q4QS data shows him on a ten-match winning run, with recent title-winning performances included in the database. tournament_narrative_pack_20261…

Weber versus Beeton looks like the key battle

The second Tour Card is far less settled.

Leon Weber receives a card in 56.78% of simulations.

James Beeton gets one in 29.48%.

That makes their battle perhaps the most important storyline of the weekend.

Weber starts £1,500 ahead of Beeton, but four tournaments provide plenty of opportunities for that gap to disappear.

A single final is worth £2,000.

A tournament victory is worth £3,000.

So one deep run from Beeton combined with an early Weber exit could change the race immediately.

Gruellich is still very much involved

Dominik Gruellich sits on £9,200 and earns a Tour Card in 8.34% of simulations.

That may not sound huge, but it is far from negligible.

With four tournaments remaining, an 8% chance represents a genuine route into the top qualifying positions.

Gruellich has also shown strong scoring at this level, including a 95.43 match average at Development Tour 20 in the Q4QS data. tournament_narrative_pack_20261…

Jamai van den Herik is next at 3.69%, while Nathan Potter remains alive at 2.46%.

Existing Tour Card holders matter enormously

This is the major difference between the Development Tour and the Challenge Tour.

Several of the strongest players in the field already have Tour Cards.

They cannot claim one of the two new cards, but they can still have a huge influence on who does.

If Bialecki wins an event, for example, he takes £3,000 from the available prize pool and eliminates every opponent he meets along the way.

The same applies to Crabtree, Jurjen van der Velde, Owen Bates and other existing card holders.

That means a player does not necessarily need to finish second overall on the Order of Merit to earn the second available Tour Card.

He needs to finish high enough among the eligible players.

The official rules state that the top two players on the final Development Tour Order of Merit who have not otherwise qualified for Tour Cards for 2027 receive two-year Tour Cards. If a player above them has already qualified for a card, the place moves further down the Order of Merit. PDPA

The World Championship race

The World Championship calculation produces a very different picture.

Player	World Championship Chance
Jack Drayton	94.13%
Cam Crabtree	82.82%
Jurjen van der Velde	33.27%
Owen Bates	32.11%
Leon Weber	27.70%
James Beeton	20.62%
Dominik Gruellich	5.37%
Jamai van den Herik	2.15%
Nathan Potter	1.69%
Dylan Slevin	0.11%

This is where an important caveat is required.

World Championship caveat

These percentages are based on the current qualification position.

The official rule is that the three highest-ranked players on the final Development Tour Order of Merit receive World Championship invitations.

However, if one of those players qualifies for the World Championship through another route, or rejects the invitation, the Development Tour place passes further down the Order of Merit until all three places are filled. PDPA

That means the World Championship probabilities are less fixed than the Tour Card probabilities.

A player who currently appears to be occupying one of the Development Tour World Championship places could later qualify through the ProTour Order of Merit, Main Order of Merit or another recognised route.

If that happens, the Development Tour invitation would move to the next eligible player.

So the percentages above should be read as:

"Chance of taking a Development Tour World Championship position based on the qualification picture as it stands now."

They may change if players secure World Championship places elsewhere before the Development Tour qualification is finalised.

That is particularly important because some Development Tour players are also active on the ProTour.

Crabtree illustrates the difference perfectly

Cam Crabtree is one of the clearest examples of why the two races need to be treated separately.

He cannot win one of the new Development Tour Tour Cards because he already holds a card.

But he can still qualify for the World Championship through the Development Tour.

The simulation gives him an 82.82% chance of taking one of those three places based on the current situation.

So Crabtree is effectively irrelevant to the Tour Card race but extremely important to the World Championship race.

Van der Velde and Bates are similar

Jurjen van der Velde and Owen Bates are also existing Tour Card holders.

Neither is competing for one of the two new cards.

But both are strongly involved in the World Championship race.

Van der Velde qualifies in 33.27% of simulations.

Bates is at 32.11%.

Their presence is another reason why Leon Weber's Tour Card probability is much higher than his World Championship probability.

Weber may finish behind existing card holders and still receive a Tour Card.

For the World Championship, those same players can occupy qualifying places themselves.

Drayton has the best of both worlds

Jack Drayton is currently in the strongest overall position.

He receives a new Tour Card in 98.27% of simulations.

He also takes a World Championship place in 94.13%.

For everyone else, the two races start to diverge considerably.

Leon Weber has a 56.78% Tour Card chance but only a 27.70% World Championship chance.

James Beeton stands at 29.48% for a card and 20.62% for the Worlds.

That difference is almost entirely created by the existing Tour Card holders above and around them.

Why this weekend could move quickly

Four Development Tour tournaments means four separate draws.

A player can earn £3,000 in one event and nothing in the next.

That makes the final weekend extremely volatile.

Weber starts only £1,500 ahead of Beeton.

Beeton is only £350 ahead of Van den Herik and £400 ahead of Gruellich.

One tournament could completely change that section of the table.

And because some of the strongest players are already Tour Card holders, the finishing order itself does not tell the whole story.

What I will be watching

The first question is whether Jack Drayton can make his position mathematically secure.

After that, the biggest Tour Card battle appears to be Leon Weber versus James Beeton, with Dominik Gruellich waiting for an opportunity.

The World Championship race is wider.

Crabtree, Weber, Van der Velde, Bates and Beeton are all heavily involved, while qualification elsewhere could potentially move the cut-off further down the table.

That is why this Development Tour finale could be even more interesting than the Challenge Tour finish.

There are effectively two races taking place on the same Order of Merit.

One for new Tour Cards.

One for Alexandra Palace.

And the players occupying those positions do not necessarily have to be the same.