2026 Development Tour Round-Up: Tour Cards Decided and World Youth Finalists Confirmed

 

The 2026 PDC Development Tour is complete.

After 24 events, two new Tour Cards have been decided, the Development Tour World Championship places are settled, and the World Youth Championship has been whittled down to its final two players.

For me, the interesting part is comparing what actually happened with the 50,000-run simulations I published before the final weekend and again with two events remaining.

There were a few twists.

Bialecki finishes comfortably on top

Sebastian Bialecki finishes the 2026 Development Tour Order of Merit as the clear number one on £21,900.

His position had already become mathematically secure before the final two events, and nobody ultimately got remotely close to overturning it.

Behind him, however, things became incredibly tight.

The final leading positions were:

Pos	Player	Prize Money
1	Sebastian Bialecki	£21,900
2	Jurjen van der Velde	£12,350
3	Cam Crabtree	£12,350
4	Jamai van den Herik	£12,250
5	Owen Bates	£12,200
6	Jack Drayton	£12,200
7	Leon Weber	£11,350
8	Dominik Gruellich	£11,300
9	Archie Self	£10,550
10	James Beeton	£10,400

Just £1,950 separated second from tenth.

That shows just how congested the Development Tour became behind Bialecki.

Van den Herik completes the comeback

The biggest story of the Tour Card race is Jamai van den Herik.

Before the final four events, my simulation gave him just a 3.69% chance of collecting one of the two available Tour Cards.

After the first two tournaments of the final weekend, that had risen dramatically to 19.80%.

He then completed the job.

Van den Herik finishes fourth overall on £12,250, but because several players above and around him already held Tour Cards, he takes one of the two new cards available through the Development Tour.

It is a great example of why I kept stressing that the raw Order of Merit did not tell the whole story.

Fourth overall was enough.

Drayton holds on

Jack Drayton takes the other Tour Card.

That is far less surprising.

Before the final four events, the Q4QS simulation gave Drayton a 98.27% chance of securing a card.

With two tournaments left that remained at 95.91%.

He did not ultimately need a spectacular finish.

His £12,200 final total was enough to get the job done.

So our model identified Drayton as overwhelmingly likely to qualify from the start of the final weekend, and that is exactly what happened.

Weber misses out

Leon Weber is probably the player who will look back on the weekend with the most frustration.

With four events remaining, Weber had a 56.78% Tour Card probability in the simulation.

With two events left, that was still 51.96%.

He was effectively the favourite for the second available card.

But Weber finishes on £11,350, £900 behind Van den Herik.

That is not a huge difference across a 24-event season, but it proved decisive.

Gruellich and Beeton also fall short

Dominik Gruellich finishes eighth overall on £11,300, while James Beeton ends tenth on £10,400.

Both remained realistic contenders entering the final stages.

With two events remaining, Gruellich had a 10.63% Tour Card chance and Beeton 15.42%.

Neither found the final run required.

Archie Self also finishes strongly in ninth on £10,550, having come from much further back during the closing events.

Coates wins Development Tour 23

Henry Coates produced one of the performances of the final weekend by winning Development Tour 23.

He beat Owen Bates 5-1 in the final, averaging 97.41 compared with Bates' 89.55.

Coates went through the tournament unbeaten with nine wins and an overall event average of 86.89.

Bates had an excellent event himself, averaging 90.79 across his run to the final.

Jamai van den Herik and Tyler Thorpe reached the semi-finals.

That run was important for Van den Herik's eventual Tour Card position, even though Bates stopped him 5-2 in the last four.

Baysal takes Development Tour 24

The final Development Tour event of 2026 went to Kaya Baysal.

Baysal beat Jurjen van der Velde 5-3 in the final, finishing the tournament with nine straight wins and an 89.33 event average.

Van der Velde's run to the final was also significant.

The £2,000 runner-up money helped lift him to £12,350, level with Cam Crabtree and ultimately second on the final Order of Merit.

Owen Bates and Duyane Wade Decena were the beaten semi-finalists.

The World Championship places

The final Development Tour World Championship race produces another example of why eligibility mattered throughout this series.

The three highlighted Development Tour places go to:

Jurjen van der Velde
Cam Crabtree
Jamai van den Herik

Van der Velde and Crabtree both finish on £12,350, with Van den Herik just £100 behind them on £12,250.

Again, that should be read alongside the qualification rules rather than simply taking the top three names on the overall Order of Merit.

Players who had already qualified through another route did not need another Development Tour place, allowing qualification to pass down the table where appropriate.

That was the caveat I included throughout the simulation articles, and it ended up being an important one.

And then came the World Youth Championship

The action continued with the PDC World Youth Championship.

The final stage produced a 64-player knockout field, but it did not finish with a champion.

Instead, it decided the two players who will contest the eventual World Youth Championship final.

Those players are:

Cam Crabtree and Jan Schmidt.

Crabtree beat Luke Littler 6-5 in a superb semi-final.

There was virtually nothing between them statistically.

Crabtree averaged 97.91.

Littler averaged 97.89.

One leg separated them.

In the other semi-final, Jan Schmidt beat Charlie Manby 6-3, producing a 94.85 average against Manby's 91.63.

So the World Youth Championship final will be:

Cam Crabtree v Jan Schmidt

Crabtree reached the final with five wins and an overall average of 90.40.

Schmidt also won five matches and actually posted the higher tournament average of the two at 92.81.

They now advance to the showpiece final.

Littler stopped in the semi-finals

Luke Littler unsurprisingly produced the highest overall average among the leading players in the knockout stages.

His tournament average was 95.60, but that was not enough to get past Crabtree.

That 6-5 semi-final is another reminder that averages do not automatically decide knockout darts.

One leg was enough to end Littler's run.

Manby also impresses

Charlie Manby reached the other semi-final with an overall average of 90.24.

He had beaten Ansh Sood 6-1 in the opening round before progressing all the way to the last four, where Schmidt finally stopped him.

Kaya Baysal, Henry Coates, Harrison Leigh and Arthur Allston made up the quarter-finalists.

Coates again performed strongly, averaging 93.20 across his World Youth matches, only a day after winning Development Tour 23.

A fascinating end to the Development Tour season

The final weekend ultimately showed exactly why these races are difficult to call.

Jack Drayton was the obvious favourite for a Tour Card and delivered.

Leon Weber was favourite for the second available card but missed out.

Jamai van den Herik moved from an outsider at the beginning of the weekend to a Tour Card holder by the end of it.

And players who already held cards continued to have a huge influence on everybody else's prospects.

The final outcome is:

Development Tour winner: Sebastian Bialecki
New Tour Cards: Jamai van den Herik and Jack Drayton
Development Tour World Championship places: Jurjen van der Velde, Cam Crabtree and Jamai van den Herik
World Youth Championship finalists: Cam Crabtree and Jan Schmidt

For Q4QS, the 50,000-run simulations were never intended to predict an exact finishing order.

They were designed to show where the probabilities sat and how quickly those probabilities could change.

Van den Herik might be the perfect example.

He started the final weekend as a 3.69% Tour Card chance.

He finishes it with a Tour Card.

That is why they still have to throw the darts.

Two Events Left: 50,000 Simulations Show the Development Tour Card Race Has Blown Wide Open

 

Two Development Tour events have been played since I last ran the numbers.

At that point, with four tournaments remaining, Jack Drayton looked extremely secure, Leon Weber held the edge for the second Tour Card, and James Beeton was the main challenger.

Now we are down to DT23 and DT24, with a maximum of £6,000 still available to any one player.

So I ran the final two events another 50,000 times.

And the race has changed quite a bit.

The latest Order of Merit

After DT22, the leading positions are:

Sebastian Bialecki – £21,900
Jack Drayton – £12,100
Cam Crabtree – £11,900
Leon Weber – £11,350
Jamai van den Herik – £11,000
Jurjen van der Velde – £10,350
Dominik Gruellich – £10,300
James Beeton – £9,950
Archie Self – £9,450
Owen Bates – £9,200

Bialecki has now mathematically secured first place on the overall Development Tour Order of Merit.

Drayton can only reach £18,100 even if he wins both remaining tournaments, so Bialecki cannot be caught.

But, as I explained in the first article, the overall standings are not the same as the Tour Card race.

Several players near the top already hold Tour Cards.

That means we have to look at which eligible players are most likely to finish high enough to collect the two new cards.

The new Tour Card probabilities

After 50,000 simulations of DT23 and DT24:

Player	Current Prize Money	Tour Card Chance
Jack Drayton	£12,100	95.91%
Leon Weber	£11,350	51.96%
Jamai van den Herik	£11,000	19.80%
James Beeton	£9,950	15.42%
Dominik Gruellich	£10,300	10.63%
Archie Self	£9,450	4.15%
Nathan Potter	£8,100	1.29%
Dylan Slevin	£8,300	0.65%
Henry Coates	£6,050	0.07%

The big story is that the second Tour Card is now properly up for grabs.

Drayton is still in control

Jack Drayton remains in by far the strongest position.

Before the weekend started, his Tour Card chance was 98.27%.

That is now 95.91%.

So his position has weakened very slightly, but not by much.

He remains overwhelmingly likely to leave the Development Tour with a card.

He does not need to win one of the final events.

He simply needs to avoid the sort of combination where several of the players immediately behind him make very deep runs.

Weber is now almost a coin flip

This is where the race gets much more interesting.

Leon Weber started the weekend with a 56.78% chance of earning one of the two cards.

After two events, that has moved to 51.96%.

That is basically a coin flip.

Weber is still the favourite for the second available card, but there is now a very realistic chance that somebody moves past him over the final two tournaments.

And there are several players capable of doing it.

Van den Herik is the biggest mover

Jamai van den Herik has been the major winner so far.

Before DT21, his Tour Card probability was only 3.69%.

He is now up to 19.80%.

That is a huge change.

His prize money has risen from £9,250 to £11,000, and with only two events remaining he is now firmly in the conversation.

A deep run in either of the final two events could completely change the picture.

Beeton has slipped back

James Beeton has gone the other way.

He started the weekend with a 29.48% chance of winning a Tour Card.

That is now down to 15.42%.

The important point is that Beeton has not fallen away completely.

He is still very much alive.

But other players have moved around him, particularly Van den Herik and Gruellich, and with only two tournaments left there is less time to respond.

Gruellich is still dangerous

Dominik Gruellich now has a 10.63% Tour Card chance.

That is actually slightly higher than his pre-weekend number of 8.34%.

So while he has not made the same jump as Van den Herik, he remains a genuine threat.

With £3,000 available for winning one tournament, a single big run could take him from outsider to serious contender.

Archie Self has suddenly entered the race

Archie Self is another player who deserves a mention.

He started this final block on £6,450.

He is now up to £9,450.

That has taken his Tour Card chance to 4.15%.

That still makes him an outsider, but he is no longer just a mathematical footnote.

Two events remain.

If he produces another big run, that number could move very quickly.

The second card is wide open

The battle now looks like this:

Leon Weber – 51.96%
Jamai van den Herik – 19.80%
James Beeton – 15.42%
Dominik Gruellich – 10.63%
Archie Self – 4.15%

That is much more open than it looked two events ago.

Weber is still favourite.

But it would not be a surprise now if somebody else took the second card.

The World Championship picture

The World Championship race looks different again.

Using the current qualification picture:

Player	World Championship Chance
Jack Drayton	94.62%
Cam Crabtree	85.86%
Leon Weber	38.94%
Owen Bates	17.25%
Jamai van den Herik	16.33%
Jurjen van der Velde	16.00%
James Beeton	14.89%
Dominik Gruellich	10.29%
Archie Self	3.98%
Nathan Potter	1.14%

These percentages need the same caveat as before.

They are based on the current World Championship qualification picture.

If a player later qualifies for Ally Pally through another route, a Development Tour place can move further down the Order of Merit.

So the World Championship percentages are more fluid than the Tour Card numbers.

That matters particularly for current Tour Card holders, because they can still occupy Development Tour World Championship places even though they are not part of the new Tour Card race.

Crabtree remains a huge factor

Cam Crabtree is the clearest example.

He is not competing for one of the two new Development Tour Tour Cards.

But he still has an 85.86% chance of taking one of the Development Tour World Championship places on the current qualification picture.

That means he can have a major influence on the Worlds race without affecting the new Tour Card race in the same way.

The same applies to players such as Jurjen van der Velde and Owen Bates.

Two events left

There are now only two opportunities remaining.

A tournament winner receives £3,000.

A finalist gets £2,000.

That is enough money to change the table very quickly.

But there is no longer much time to recover from an early exit.

That is why the current positions matter so much more now than they did before DT21.

Drayton is close.

Weber still has the advantage.

Van den Herik has transformed his position.

Beeton is still alive but under more pressure.

Gruellich remains dangerous.

And Self has suddenly given himself a chance.

The final two Development Tour events should be fascinating.

MODUS Super Series Week 6 Preview: Can Anyone Stop Derek Coulson?

 

The MODUS Super Series returns for Week 6 of Series 15, and there is one very obvious place to start.

Derek Coulson is back.

Coulson has become one of the standout MODUS stories of recent times, finally converting years of deep runs into Champions Week success earlier this year. Now he returns to Portsmouth as the clear man to beat in a 12-player field containing a fascinating mixture of established names, former MODUS winners, emerging players and experienced campaigners.

And the Q4QS numbers reinforce just how formidable Coulson currently looks.

He sits 12th in the Q4QS rankings with a 728.3 rating and 91.69 average, and his recent results have been exceptional. Coulson won Challenge Tour 16 unbeaten with a 93.77 tournament average and subsequently reached the final of Challenge Tour 20, averaging 95.15 across that run. Even his recent Players Championship appearances have seen him operating around the 90-plus mark.

The question this week is whether anybody in this field can prevent another Coulson run.

Van den Herik brings another winning pedigree

One of the strongest candidates is Jamai van den Herik.

The Dutch youngster already knows how to win a MODUS week, having done so during Series 13, and his recent results elsewhere show why he could be one of Coulson's biggest threats.

Van den Herik won Development Tour 18 with an 86.48 tournament average, going 8–0, and his notable recent victories include Owen Bates and Dominik Gruellich. He is ranked 109th by Q4QS with an 84.54 average.

Coulson and Van den Herik are together in Group A, but that section has considerably more depth than just its two headline names.

Hubbard could be one of the week's dangers

James Hubbard arrives with one of the strongest recent form profiles in the field.

The former PDC World Youth Champion has reached the semi-finals of both the England Open and UKDA National Finals in his recent recorded events. The England Open run came with an 85.89 tournament average, while his latest National Finals campaign produced an 84.16 average.

He is also 8–2 across his last ten recorded matches.

That consistency makes Hubbard particularly interesting in the MODUS format, where producing your level repeatedly across multiple sessions can be every bit as important as one spectacular performance.

Mawson arrives as a recent champion

There is also plenty of international interest.

Canada's Gary Mawson comes into Week 6 after winning Championship Darts Circuit Main Event 8, going through the tournament unbeaten with an 81.21 average. He has since reached another quarter-final and also carries an 8–2 last-ten record.

David Munyua returns to the Super Series following the Kenyan's memorable appearance at Alexandra Palace, while Patrick Dekker completes what looks a genuinely intriguing opening group.

Dekker's recent results include an 84.59 match average on the Challenge Tour and a victory over Steve Lennon.

Three Kevins – and three very different threats

One of the more unusual features of Week 6 is a group containing Kevin Edwards, Kevin Lane and Kevin Painter.

Beyond the shared first name, there are three very different darting stories.

Edwards has been producing some excellent numbers on the ADC circuit. His recent results include tournament averages of 87.92, 85.78 and 85.71, with a peak match average of 96.27. He is 7–3 across his last ten recorded matches.

Lane has also been competing strongly. He reached the quarter-finals of ADC Championship South Event 11 with an 83.64 tournament average, beating Lewis Cook with an 89.02 average along the way. More recently he has continued to average in the mid-80s on the Challenge Tour.

Then there is Kevin Painter.

The former World Championship finalist needs little introduction, and while his recent results are less consistent than some of the field, the scoring ability remains. Painter recently reached a Vault quarter-final averaging 80.92 and produced a 91.09 match average during the event.

Killington could be dangerous

Another name I particularly like this week is George Killington.

Killington comes in immediately after reaching a Vault final at Waterlooville, averaging 82.54 across the tournament. His individual performances included a 93.94, and he is 8–2 across his latest ten recorded matches.

The former Tour Card holder has enough experience to make a sustained MODUS run, and his recent numbers suggest he arrives in good shape.

John O'Shea and Ram Guevara Jr complete the 12-player field. The Q4QS database is currently much thinner on Guevara, while O'Shea's recorded recent results include an 87.44 match average on the Challenge Tour and a 5–1 victory over Jelle Klaasen.

Six Players to Watch

Derek Coulson

The obvious benchmark. Challenge Tour champion, Challenge Tour finalist and consistently producing 90-plus tournament numbers. If Coulson brings his recent level to Portsmouth, somebody is going to have to play extremely well to stop him.

Jamai van den Herik

Already a MODUS weekly winner and a Development Tour champion this season. He has both the scoring level and experience of this particular format to challenge again.

Kevin Edwards

Possibly the most interesting player outside the headline names. Recent ADC numbers have been excellent, including a 96.27 match average, and this week provides a chance to translate that form onto the MODUS stage.

James Hubbard

Two recent major amateur semi-finals and an 8–2 last ten. Hubbard's consistency makes him a serious candidate to outperform expectations.

George Killington

Arrives straight from a final and has been producing plenty of 80-plus darts, with the ability to push considerably higher. A dangerous player if momentum carries over.

Kevin Lane

Recent Challenge Tour averages in the mid-80s follow an impressive ADC quarter-final. His current scoring suggests he can cause problems throughout the week.

A favourite – but not necessarily a straightforward week

Coulson deserves to begin as the standout name. The combination of MODUS experience, current form and a Q4QS average above 91 separates him from the field on paper.

But MODUS weeks rarely play out entirely on paper.

Van den Herik has already demonstrated that he can win in this environment. Hubbard is making deep runs. Mawson has recently won on the CDC. Killington arrives from a final. Edwards and Lane are producing numbers capable of beating very good players.

And with players such as Painter, Dekker, O'Shea, Munyua and Guevara completing the field, there should be plenty of opportunities for the week's expected order to be disrupted.

Coulson starts as the man to beat. Finding out who can get closest to him – or perhaps knock him off the top altogether – should make Week 6 well worth following.

Modus Super Series Week 10 Preview: Form Players Ready to Battle

 

 

The Modus Super Series returns for Week 10 with another intriguing field combining established names, rising talent and players arriving in excellent form.

While there are no guarantees in one of darts' most unpredictable competitions, several players have built impressive momentum over recent weeks and will believe they can make a serious impact.

One of the standout names heading into the week is Nathan Potter. The Englishman recently reached the final of a PDC Development Tour event and has continued to produce consistently solid performances against strong opposition. If he can translate that form onto the Modus stage, he could be one of the players to beat.

Dutch youngster Jamai van den Herik also arrives with plenty of confidence. Recent Development Tour events have seen him reach multiple deep runs, including two semi-finals, highlighting both his consistency and scoring ability. His recent 9-1 record in the Q4QS database suggests he's carrying plenty of momentum into Week 10.

Few players anywhere are enjoying a hotter run than Chas Barstow. Multiple local titles and an unbeaten stretch of victories have made him one of the form players in grassroots darts. Confidence can often be priceless in the Modus format, and Barstow certainly won't be lacking any.

Scottish thrower Jim McEwan has also produced some eye-catching displays recently. A runner-up finish at the Isle of Man International Festival, coupled with several high-quality averages, demonstrates that he's capable of mixing it with quality opposition.

Another player worth watching is Kaya Baysal. The young talent arrives after claiming a title at the Swiss Open & Helvetia Open and has continued to make deep runs on the JDC circuit. His experience against fellow rising stars should stand him in good stead this week.

If there is a potential dark horse, Mike Warburton fits the bill perfectly. He recently produced a remarkable 110.51 average on the PDC Challenge Tour, showing the explosive scoring power needed to trouble anybody over the shorter Modus format.

Elsewhere, experienced campaigners Jamie Lewis and former World Champion Robert Thornton add further quality to what looks a highly competitive field, while Jack Aldridge and Carl Batchelor have both shown they possess the game to produce big performances when confidence is flowing.Finally is Lee Evans (the Welsh One!), who has the ability is playing his A game 

Six To Follow

Nathan Potter – Consistent Development Tour performances make him one of the most reliable players in the field.

Jamai van den Herik – Excellent recent momentum with multiple deep runs.

Chas Barstow – One of the hottest players on current form.

Jim McEwan – Proven he can average well in pressure matches.

Kaya Baysal – Young talent with recent title-winning confidence.

Mike Warburton – Capable of producing huge scoring bursts that can change matches quickly.

Whatever happens, Week 10 promises another entertaining week of darts, with experienced professionals, emerging stars and in-form players all chasing valuable victories. If recent performances are anything to go by, expect plenty of big averages, close contests and perhaps a surprise run or two before the week is over.