Luke Humphries' withdrawal has changed the complexion of the European Championship before a dart has been thrown. With the world number two absent, can Luke Littler add another major title, or will one of the chasing pack take advantage? I've been examining the Q4QS Database to see who arrives in form.
Well, that's thrown something of a spanner in the works.
I'd been looking through the Q4QS Database ahead of this weekend's European Championship, analysing recent performances, averages, winning percentages and results to see which players might be arriving in Dortmund in the best form.
And one of the strongest candidates was Luke Humphries.
Unfortunately, Humphries has now withdrawn from the tournament after suffering from gastroenteritis.
The world number two was due to face Ryan Searle in the opening round, but his place has been taken by Kim Huybrechts, the highest-ranked player on the European Tour Order of Merit who hadn't qualified.
It's a significant change to the tournament, and one that could have consequences for several players.
Humphries was the top-ranked player in the Q4QS Database, with a rating of 794.12 and an average of 99.61.
He was also arriving in outstanding form, having won the World Grand Prix and reached the final of the Swiss Darts Trophy.
His absence removes one of the strongest contenders and potentially opens up opportunities elsewhere in the draw.
But who is best placed to take advantage?
Littler now the man to beat?
It would have been difficult to look beyond Luke Littler as one of the favourites anyway, but the absence of Humphries makes his prospects even more interesting.
Littler sits third in the Q4QS rankings, with a rating of 770.42 and a Q4QS average of 99.40.
More importantly, he's won nine of his last ten matches recorded in the database.
His World Matchplay triumph remains one of the outstanding performances of the season.
Across five matches, Littler produced a remarkable tournament average of 111.04.
That included a 111.53 average against Gerwyn Price in the final, a 110.88 against Dirk van Duijvenbode and a 109.57 against Josh Rock.
Those are extraordinary numbers, even by Littler's standards.
Of course, darts doesn't always work quite as simply as that.
Littler suffered an early exit at the World Grand Prix, and even the best players can have an off-night.
But looking at his overall performances and recent results, he is certainly the player everyone else will be looking to stop.
His first-round opponent is William O'Connor, with Nathan Aspinall or Cristo Reyes waiting in the second round if Littler progresses.
Gerwyn Price – perhaps the strongest challenger
If there's one player who might particularly fancy his chances following Humphries' withdrawal, it could be Gerwyn Price.
Price is second in the Q4QS rankings, with a rating of 772.06 and an average of 98.79.
What stands out is his consistency in reaching the latter stages of major tournaments.
The database records him reaching the finals of the World Matchplay, World Series Finals and World Grand Prix.
He averaged 100.42 during his run to the World Series Finals final, including a 104.07 performance in a victory over Jonny Clayton.
He might not have converted every final appearance into a title, but consistently getting that far against the strongest opposition is an achievement in itself.
Price opens against Rob Cross.
Cross has plenty of major tournament experience, and his recent Swiss Darts Trophy performances suggest he is capable of providing a serious challenge.
The winner will face either Niels Zonneveld or Cameron Menzies.
There are no guarantees, but Price certainly looks capable of going a long way.
Chris Dobey – the statistical outsider?
One player who keeps appearing whenever I look at recent Q4QS performances is Chris Dobey.
He's fifth in the overall Q4QS rankings, with a rating of 756.63 and an average of 97.25.
But it's his recent individual performances that really catch my attention.
At Players Championship 29, Dobey reached the quarter-finals with a tournament average of 105.88.
That run included a 106.62 average against Josh Rock, 106.09 against Maik Kuivenhoven and an outstanding 112.73 against Wesley Plaisier.
And here's the interesting part.
Dobey faces Josh Rock in the first round in Dortmund.
Having recently beaten Rock with a 106-plus average, Dobey will surely approach that match with some confidence.
Rock remains a dangerous opponent, but the recent statistical evidence certainly suggests Dobey has a realistic chance of progressing.
He's one of the players I'll be watching particularly closely.
Ross Smith – top seed and a genuine contender
Ross Smith heads the European Championship seedings, and his recent results suggest he has every reason to be confident.
He sits ninth in the Q4QS rankings, with an average of 95.98.
His most significant recent achievement was winning the World Series Finals.
Smith averaged 99.10 across the tournament, including a 103.89 performance in an 11-5 victory over Gerwyn Price.
He also defeated Gian van Veen and Josh Rock during that successful run.
Those results demonstrate his ability to beat the very best players over longer formats.
Smith begins against Karel Sedlacek, with James Wade or Damon Heta potentially waiting in the second round.
Given his seeding, recent performances and tournament experience, he belongs firmly among the leading contenders.
Wessel Nijman – the numbers remain impressive
Wessel Nijman has been one of the more interesting players to follow statistically.
He is fourth in the Q4QS rankings, with a rating of 762.55 and an average of 97.30.
His results haven't always matched the quality of his scoring, with five wins and five defeats across his last ten recorded matches.
However, his performances at Players Championship 29 included a tournament average of 103.79.
That sort of scoring power makes him dangerous against almost anybody.
Nijman begins against Martin Schindler, another player capable of producing excellent averages.
Schindler's recent results haven't been particularly consistent, but he has shown signs of improvement in his scoring.
This is one of those matches where I wouldn't be surprised by either result.
The players arriving with momentum
There are a few players who deserve particular attention because of their most recent tournament performances.
Niels Zonneveld
Zonneveld arrives following his Dutch Darts Championship victory, having won six consecutive matches and averaged 96.35 across the tournament.
His run included victories over Danny Noppert, Stephen Bunting, Wessel Nijman and Gerwyn Price.
That's an impressive list of opponents.
His Q4QS ranking of 46 doesn't necessarily reflect just how dangerous he could be when producing those performances.
He begins against Cameron Menzies and could potentially meet Price or Cross in the second round.
Danny Noppert
Noppert was beaten by Zonneveld in that final, but his own performances deserve recognition.
He averaged 99.40 across the tournament and recorded a remarkable 113.42 against Luke Woodhouse.
He also defeated Gian van Veen and Jermaine Wattimena during the event.
Noppert has won seven of his last ten recorded matches, and his recent form suggests he could be particularly dangerous.
He faces Stephen Bunting in the opening round.
Gian van Veen
The defending champion arrives with another impressive run of results behind him.
Van Veen has won seven of his last ten recorded matches and recently reached the final of Players Championship 29.
He followed that by reaching the semi-finals of the Dutch Darts Championship, where he averaged 101.92 across his matches.
He'll begin his title defence against Andrew Gilding.
With Humphries absent, Van Veen must fancy his chances of another deep run.
Jonny Clayton
Clayton's victory at the Swiss Darts Trophy was another performance worth highlighting.
He averaged 102.95 across the event and defeated Luke Humphries in the final.
His route also included victories over Gian van Veen and Rob Cross.
Those results suggest Clayton is approaching this tournament with plenty of confidence.
He opens against Niko Springer, with the winner facing either Josh Rock or Chris Dobey.
That section of the draw could produce some excellent matches.
Kevin Doets – another potential surprise
Kevin Doets is seventh in the Q4QS rankings, with an average of 96.11.
He has won seven of his last ten recorded matches and has enjoyed some impressive Players Championship results.
He reached the final of Players Championship 27 and followed that with a semi-final appearance at Players Championship 29, averaging 100.29 during the latter event.
His problem is the draw.
Doets faces Michael van Gerwen in the first round.
Van Gerwen's recent results have been somewhat inconsistent, but his experience and ability to produce his best darts on the big stage cannot be underestimated.
Nevertheless, Doets has the scoring and recent results to make this a particularly interesting encounter.
I certainly wouldn't regard it as a straightforward opening match for Van Gerwen.
What does Humphries' withdrawal change?
The obvious consequence is that one of the tournament's strongest players is no longer in the field.
But the more interesting question is what it means for the draw.
Kim Huybrechts comes in to face Ryan Searle, with the winner meeting Danny Noppert or Stephen Bunting in the second round.
Searle will understandably see an opportunity, although Huybrechts is experienced enough to make life difficult.
Further down the tournament, players in that section of the draw may also view Humphries' absence as a significant opportunity.
It doesn't mean their path to the final is suddenly easy.
Far from it.
But a player who was performing exceptionally well, and who had recently won the World Grand Prix, is no longer there to stop them.
And that undoubtedly changes the tournament.
The opening matches I'll be watching
Several first-round ties stand out.
Gerwyn Price v Rob Cross: Two established major winners, both capable of going deep into this tournament.
Josh Rock v Chris Dobey: One of the most interesting matches statistically, particularly given Dobey's recent scoring performances.
Kevin Doets v Michael van Gerwen: An opportunity for Doets to demonstrate that his strong Q4QS ranking reflects his ability against the biggest names.
Wessel Nijman v Martin Schindler: Nijman's impressive overall numbers against a player capable of producing strong individual performances.
Danny Noppert v Stephen Bunting: Noppert arrives following a final appearance, while Bunting reached the semi-finals of the same tournament.
Kim Huybrechts v Ryan Searle: A late change to the draw and an unexpected opportunity for both players.
And I'll also be keeping an eye on Cristo Reyes against Nathan Aspinall.
Reyes has shown some excellent recent form, including a quarter-final appearance at the Swiss Darts Trophy and a tournament average of 101.17 at Players Championship 29.
He could be one of the more dangerous outsiders in the field.
So who wins the European Championship?
Before Humphries' withdrawal, I would have placed him alongside Littler as one of the two strongest contenders.
His absence changes that assessment.
Luke Littler is now my leading candidate, based on the Q4QS statistics and his ability to produce extraordinary performances over several matches.
Gerwyn Price would be my next choice.
His consistent appearances in major finals suggest he's rarely far away from challenging for titles.
Ross Smith, Wessel Nijman and Chris Dobey also deserve serious consideration.
And I certainly wouldn't dismiss Gian van Veen, particularly given his recent results and status as defending champion.
If we're looking for players who could surprise people, Kevin Doets, Niels Zonneveld and Cristo Reyes are all interesting candidates based on their recent performances.
But one of the things I've learned from looking through the Q4QS data is that statistics don't always tell us everything.
A player might be averaging 98 or 99 over several tournaments and still lose to somebody who produces one exceptional match.
That's darts.
What the figures can do is identify players performing well consistently, those whose form is improving and those who perhaps deserve more attention than they're receiving.
And with one of the strongest players in the world now missing from the tournament, the European Championship looks even more intriguing.
My leading contender: Luke Littler.
Main challengers: Gerwyn Price, Ross Smith, Wessel Nijman and Gian van Veen.
Player to watch: Chris Dobey.
Potential surprises: Kevin Doets, Niels Zonneveld and Cristo Reyes.
We'll see how well the Q4QS figures stand up over the next four days.
Q4QS analysis uses recorded match results and player rankings supplied on 22 October 2026. Rankings and averages refer to the Q4QS Database, not the official PDC Order of Merit. Match coverage may be incomplete, and predictions are statistical assessments rather than guarantees.
