The 2025 Mr Vegas Grand Slam of Darts is down to the final eight, and it’s one of the most wide-open quarter-final line-ups we’ve seen in years.
So I decided to put my Philpot AI-Style Prediction Model to work.
This model blends:
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recent three-dart average
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checkout %
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180s and scoring bursts
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big-stage experience
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bookmakers’ odds (converted into a rating)
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and a final Philpot Form Boost' for players trending upwards
It’s early days for the model, but it gives a fun, stats-based look at who’s most likely to lift the title this weekend.
⭐ Philpot AI Ratings (Out of 100)
1. Luke Littler – 95/100
The defending champion, the strongest scorer in the field, and the most explosive leg-player in the world right now.
Elite 180 power + rock-solid temperament = the model’s outright favourite.
2. Luke Humphries – 90/100
Still the best all-round player on the planet when he hits top gear.
A slightly lower form rating keeps him behind Littler, but his stage experience and consistency mean he is right in the mix.
3. Gerwyn Price – 88/100
Nobody brings Grand Slam pedigree like Price.
Big-stage factor + finishing quality keep him in the top tier of contenders.
4. Danny Noppert – 85/100
Quietly in great form.
Strong doubling numbers, improved scoring, and a high “danger of causing an upset” rating in the model.
5. Michael Smith – 82/100
Still posting big numbers but hasn’t quite had the major-run consistency this season.
His ceiling is massive — but his floor can be low.
6. Josh Rock – 80/100
Momentum, yes. Experience deep in TV majors, not as much.
The model loves his long-term curve but sees this as “maybe one tournament too soon”.
7. Ricky Evans – 78/100
Playing freely and enjoying the moment.
A live danger in patches, but model marks him down on consistency and doubling.
8. Lukas Wenig – 75/100
What a story.
Huge power, fearless, but low Grand Slam / TV experience keeps the model cautious.
Still very capable of a shock.
🏆 🏆 Philpot AI Champion Prediction
The numbers pick:
🏆 Luke Littler – 95/100
Everything points to a deep run: the scoring, the timing, the pressure handling, and last year’s title. The model says Littler is the man to beat.
🌑 Next Best Pick
Luke Humphries – 90/100
If Littler slips even slightly, Humphries is the most likely to punish him. His consistency over long formats remains elite.
⚡ Surprise Candidate
Danny Noppert – 85/100
The stats favour him more than many fans realise.
If Price or Littler have an off night, Noppert has the game to pounce.
📈 What’s Next for the Model?
I’ll update this after the quarter-finals to see how well the predictions performed and adjust the model for the semi-finals and final.
Let me know in the comments who your pick is!
