The Superstition Shortlist: Who Can Win the 2026 PDC World Darts Championship ?

 

Every darts fan has their hunches, but what if we turned superstition into a system? I’ve built a prediction model based on historical quirks, patterns, and outright anomalies from the PDC World Championship. The result? A ruthlessly filtered list of players who might actually win in 2026… if the darts gods keep playing by their own rules.

🧠 The Superstition Filters

To make the cut, a player must:

1. Be British or Dutch
   No one outside the UK or Netherlands has won since 2008.
2. Be right-handed
   Lefties like James Wade and Micky Mansell? Never lifted the Sid Waddell Trophy.
3. Not wear glasses during matches
   Sorry, Stephen Bunting, and Gian van Veen.
4. Avoid red or yellow shirts
   No champion has ever worn either as a dominant color.
5. Not be the reigning champion
   Only 3 players have ever retained the title. Littler’s out.
6. Not have won the Worlds more than 5 years ago
   No one has reclaimed the title after a gap longer than 5 years.
7. Not be a debutant
   Only Rob Cross (2018) has pulled that off.
8. Be ranked inside the top 10
   Over 80% of champions were top 10 at the time of their win

✅ The Final Four

After applying all filters, only four players remain in contention:

Luke Humphries 

Chris Dobey

Danny Noppert 

Josh Rock

❌ Notable Eliminations

• Luke Littler – reigning champ
• Michael van Gerwen – last won in 2019
• Rob Cross – outside top 10
• Peter Wright – red shirts
• Gerwyn Price – glasses
• Raymond van Barneveld – last won in 2007
• Nathan Aspinall, Joe Cullen – outside top 10

 Final Thoughts

This isn’t a betting guide, it’s a superstition-powered filter for fans who love the weird patterns that make darts so compelling. Will one of the final four break through? Or will someone shatter the model entirely?

Either way, I’ll be watching  and updating the list as the drama unfolds.

Small Signs of Improvement – Progress at Last

 

Bit by bit, things are starting to feel better on the oche. My throw’s beginning to flow again, and I think a few of the changes I’ve made are starting to help.

Switching to the Michael van Gerwen 22-gram darts has made a noticeable difference as they’re flying straighter, grouping tighter, and generally just feel right in the hand. Sometimes that small change in confidence makes all the difference.

I’ve also been putting time into my own Darts Challenge Game (available free via the link in the sidebar). It’s a great little practice routine that sharpens up your targeting on 20s, 19s, 18s, and 25/Bulls. I’m only on Level 3 at the moment, which is pretty lowly, but it gives me plenty to aim for, so seventeen more levels still to climb!

I’d love to hear from any pro or semi-pro players willing to give it a try. I’ve got a feeling anything above Level 10 would take some serious shooting . I'm thinking probably 70+ average territory. If you fancy testing your accuracy and focus, give it a go and let me know how you get on.

Who Can Follow Beau Greaves to the Very Top?

 For years, darts fans have wondered when a woman would genuinely challenge the men on the PDC stage. We’ve seen flashes of brilliance from Fallon Sherrock and her history-making Ally Pally wins, Lisa Ashton’s brave runs on the Pro Tour, and Mikuru Suzuki’s impressive averages on the Women’s Series. Each showed glimpses that it could happen, but so far, none have made that final step into the upper tiers of the professional game.

Enter Beau Greaves.
Still only in her early twenties, she’s already a dominant force on the Women’s Series and has proven she can mix it with the men. Her smooth throw, natural rhythm, and icy composure under pressure have made her one of the most gifted players, male or female, to emerge in recent years. With more regular PDC appearances likely in 2025, there’s a real sense that Beau could push the boundaries further than anyone before her.

But who else might follow?

One name to watch is Gemma Hayter. She’s been steadily improving, putting in strong performances across regional events and the Women’s Series. While not quite at Greaves’ level yet, she’s not too far off and it will be fascinating to see how she performs at Q School in January. She has the temperament, the will, and the game to cause some upsets. Ireland's Rebecca Allen is one for the future and will be interesting if she tries her hand on the Women's Series soon. She is arguably the best under 18 year old female player in the world. 

In the men’s game, the next generation is already queuing up. Players like Luke Littler, Josh Rock, Gian van Veen, and Wessel Nijman, have shown that age is no barrier to competing at elite level. Their rapid rise demonstrates what can happen when young players get the exposure, support, and competitive opportunities they need.

That’s perhaps where the women’s game still has work to do.
The Women’s Series streaming boards have added some much-needed visibility — but it’s still limited. Imagine if there were regular tournament highlights, interviews, and behind-the-scenes content showcasing the personalities and rivalries developing on the circuit. More visibility means more role models — and that’s what will ultimately encourage more young women to pick up the darts and believe they can make it.

Beau Greaves has shown the path.
Now the question is: who’s next to follow her?

Thursday Night Round Robin – Signs of Progress

 

After a few tough weeks, tonight felt like a genuine step forward. My overall average climbed to 48.52, with a first-nine average of 51.78, and I even produced a 16-dart leg along the way. a little win for the evening.

There were flashes of the form I’ve been working toward, especially in the game where I averaged over 60, which shows the potential starting to come through. The new darts seem to be bedding in nicely; the throw feels more natural, and I’m finding a smoother rhythm on the scoring phase.

Mentally, I’m still overthinking at times and that’s the next area to tackle, but it finally feels like there’s light at the end of the tunnel. Small improvements each week, building confidence, and keeping faith in the process.

Here’s hoping this is the start of a stronger run heading into the next few events.

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📊 Stats Snapshot

• Overall Average: 48.52

• First 9 Average: 51.78

• 100+ scores: 8

• 180s: 1

• Best Game Average: 60.74

• Best Leg: 16 darts

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💭 Final Thoughts

It’s been a challenging spell results-wise, but the signs of progress are there. The averages are creeping up, I’m starting to feel more composed at the oche, and there’s a sense of rhythm returning.

It might just be that the new darts are helping unlock something, or maybe it’s just persistence finally paying off. Either way, I’m leaving tonight’s session with a bit of belief again, and that’s a win in itself.

Welcomer to Questforqschool.com

 

> Welcome to QuestForQSchool.com!

I started this blog to document my journey as a darts player — the highs, lows, and everything in between. You’ll find honest reflections from local tournaments, practice sessions, and my ongoing effort to raise my average and sharpen my mental game.

Alongside my personal progress, I’ll share stats and analysis from the wider darts scene — from Players Championships to under-the-radar talents climbing the ranks. My goal is to learn, improve, and eventually earn a spot at PDC Q School, and maybe inspire a few others chasing their own darting dream along the way.

Whether you’re here for stats, strategy, or the story, thanks for joining the journey.

🎯 Paul Philpot

QuestForQSchool.com

Why Darts Players Obsess Over Averages. And Why It Doesn’t Always Matter

 Walk into any darts tournament and you’ll hear one number more than any other: the average. Players track it, fans quote it, and commentators celebrate it. In darts culture, your three-dart average is seen as the ultimate measure of ability.

But here’s the twist: winning tournaments rarely requires the highest average.

The Myth of the Average

I ran a quick study across major events and found something surprising: the player who lifts the trophy almost never tops the average chart. Why? Because darts isn’t just about scoring big—it’s about timing, finishing, and handling pressure.

Averages can be inflated by easy wins or dead legs, but when it comes to crunch moments, checkout percentages and composure matter far more.

The Data: 11 Players Championship Events

I looked at the first 11 PDC Players Championship tournaments in 2025. Here’s what I found:

• In 0 out of 11 events, the winner had the highest tournament average.
• In most cases, the highest average belonged to a player who didn’t even reach the final.
• The gap between the winner’s average and the top average was often 5–10 points.

Why Does This Happen?

• Matchplay -  Scoring Power
  Darts is about timing. You can average 110 in a first-round blowout, but if you crumble under pressure in the quarters, you’re out.

• Short Format Variance
  Players Championship events are best-of-11 legs early on. One bad leg can hurt your average, but not your chances if you win the big moments.

• Mental Game
  Closing out legs under pressure matters more than hitting big trebles when you’re cruising.

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So, Are Averages Pointless?

Not at all. Averages are a great indicator of scoring consistency. But they’re not the ultimate measure of ability. In fact, they might be the most misleading stat in darts if taken in isolation.

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Takeaway

Next time you hear someone brag about their average, ask: 'Did you win?' Because in darts, winning beats averaging every time.

Semi-Final Run – Signs of Progress

 A better night at the oche this week as I made it through to the semi-finals of the Wednesday Night Under-55 Average Comp, and for the first time in a while, things actually felt like they were starting to click again.

I used my new Michael van Gerwen 22-gram darts, and they really did make a difference. The old problem of slicing darts to the right was much less noticeable. It might still be a bit psychological, but even so, the grouping felt tighter and the throw smoother. I hit a fair few 100+ scores and even had a look at a 13-dart leg, until double 12 decided it wanted nothing to do with me!

Still, I came away feeling much more positive, and even picked up a bit of prize money, which always helps. My average (41.13) still needs work, but the overall performance showed definite progress. It feels like I might finally be emerging from that little black hole of form.

Next up is Thursday’s event, and with a slightly tougher field, it’ll be a good test to see if this improvement is the real deal.