PDB - My Stats Model

 I thought I would share my thinking around a stats model that I designed to show player performance. I've named it the PDB Model. (or PDB for short)

As it's something that took me a while to work out, I won't give away everything, but here is the basis of it and how it may show who is currently playing well, or who is losing form. I also want to see how accurate it may be as a prediction model too. 

I will use the Challenge Tour as my example, as there have already been five events, so quite a bit of data. 

It is important to recognise who won and who got to the later stages, however this doesn't necessarily mean that the best player won. So as an outright prediction model, this may not be useful. Although, maybe in time, my PDB Model will align. For now I would be looking at single match prediction .

Some weight is given to the round a player got to, as that does show performance, but other factors will show a truer reflection, in my opinion. 

For example, when looking at the stats for averages for the first 5 events, you will see that out of the top 10 players, only 3 of the players are in the top 10 on the Order of Merit. I have been told by several experienced players (both pro and amateur), that you shouldn't look too much at averages. The win is the important thing. And this is true. Firstly, a losing average, doesn't give true result, as you may not have had darts at a double, so the average remains high. If you miss, say, 6 darts at a double, the average will tumble. Secondly, you could have a poor winning leg, but a great losing leg, in terms of average, and this will give you a lower overall average than you might expect. Therefore an average is more of a guide. It does have merit, and is included in the model, but is certainly not the be all and end all. 

My initial thoughts for power scoring, were that it holds a decent amount of weight when it comes to winning matches. The idea is that a player can get to a finish with extra darts in hand to hit the double. 

At an amateur level, I think this is true, but as the standard improves, then maybe less so. For the frequent 180 hitters, this didn't have too much impact, with only Beau Greaves and Mervyn King making the top 10 in the 180 frequency category and overall Order of Merit. 

Things become slightly more interesting in the 140 category where the top 4 players in this category make the top 10 in the Order Of Merit. So should more weight be granted here? Obviously this is only 5 events, with limited data, but will be interesting to see if this changes. 

My model is not set in stone. It's a work in progress. The aim is probably impossible, but it's to try and get as an accurate performance/prediction model as possible. 

I have a couple more factors such as previous form and do the trends show a player improving or declining over time. More data is needed to tweak these results, but they are certainly things to consider.

As Bobby George famously said 'trebles for show, doubles for dough', I think it is necessary to look at checkout percentages and how to weigh them in the model

I was surprised to see, that so far, only two players, Stefan Bellmont and Bean Greaves, are in the top 10 in this category. They did win 3 of the 5 events between them, so it is important, however, beyond these players, it doesn't appear to have that much of an impact. 

So, I set up my own PDB rankings to show what the model thinks are the top 10 performers so far. The maximum score a player can get is 800. (Someone has already done this, but only in a single event - more below)

Beau Greaves                  250

Stefan Bellmont              146.7

Mervyn King                  110

Tom Sykes                      96.7

Andreas Harrysson        76.7

Graham Hall                  73.3

Martin Grearson            73.3

Carl Sneyd                     70

Ryan Harrington            66.7

The top two positions are the same as the Order of Merit, which is promising, however only 4 of my performance top 10 are in the top 10 Order of Merit. However this is designed around performance, and possibly individual games. I guess I need another Challenge Tour weekend to test it and compare. 

One thing that was very interesting, is that both Tom Sykes and Graham Hall qualified for the UK Open, last weekend. The PDB model shows they are in good form and this reflected in their performance the day after the Challenge Tour finished. Maybe good fortune, but it's something to work with. 

One final thing, is that at the recent JDC Q School event 1, Ben Townley won the first tournament. He was top in every category that I use for this model (some I haven't mentioned, as some things have to be secret:). I don't think that will be replicated very often, especially over several events. However it will now be interesting to see how he progresses on the JDC Advanced Tour. 

I hope you enjoyed reading this. I'm a bit of a stat/maths nerd, so it's just getting my thoughts out there. 

Following The Littler Effect - Is It Possible To Get A Greaves Effect?

The PDC Challenge Tour began this month and it was clear who the headline maker was. It was, of course, Beau Greaves, who won two of the five events.  If that wasn't impressive enough, she was top, or thereabouts in the stats, over the five events:

Average 92.70   1st

180%      6.1      2nd

140+ %    21      1st

Checkout %  40  5th

This is out of over 300 players. Basically she is the top performer outside of the Pro Tour thus far. 

This was no surprise, of course, as Greaves has been playing close to this level for a few years now. Dominating the Women's game and picking up three WDF World titles, to date. She's had appearances on the Men's TV stage, in the Grand Slam and a PDC World Championship, but it seems that this year something is different. It seems that Greaves is up for the next challenge. 

This started at Q School, where she narrowly missed out. She was very competitive and would have been no surprise if she qualified for the PDC Pro Tour. This may have been a blessing in disguise. Rather than being thrown straight into the Pro Tour, she has the opportunity to play in Pro Tour events, where spaces have become available, due to Pro Tour players dropping out. This is a regular occurrence and gives the Challenge Tour players a chance to play on the Pro Tour, without the full committal. The players are selected based on Challenge Tour Order of Merit points. So, for example, if three players drop out of a Pro Tour event, the top three would be invited to play. Sometimes the Challenge Tour players decline, and players from fairly far down the rankings get the chance. Last year, for example, players from positions as low as 35-40, got a place.

With Greaves at the top of the Order of Merit, she will no doubt get an invite to at least one of the early Pro Tour events. She could make waves here, which would get extra media attention and maybe, just maybe, start a snowballing effect in the Women's game.

With social media growing all the time, this could be the time for the Women's game to hit the spotlight.  When Lisa Ashton qualified for the Tour, social media was not so prevalent, so perhaps,the inspiration factor wasn't quite there. However social media has exploded and achievements of all kinds are plastered all over the internet. 

When Luke Littler made is breakthrough in 2024, the internet followed. This in turn led to darts being a big thing. Young players have been taking up darts and the demand from spectators is larger than ever. 

Now Beau Greaves is becoming more and more familiar with darts fans and the media, will this hook in the young players, who want to emulate her and her achievements. I'd go as far a saying a role model even. Young female players have someone to look up to. Because Greaves is young too, she is more relatable, same with Littler. The sponsors and marketeers are not all over Greaves just yet, but maybe if she performs well on the Pro Tour and gets on the TV more, this opportunity will arise. 

I really hope this happens. Even if she got just 10% of the coverage Littler has had, then this could really expand things in the Women's game. Hopefully this will encourage young female players to take up the game and achieve what Greaves is achieving currently. As the young players come through, the current players will step up too and this could increase the standard markedly. 

There are some players already in the Women's Series challenging perennial performers such as Fallon Sherrock, Lisa Ashton and Deta Hedman. Kirsi Viinikainen won the recent Modus Womens Week, which was on TV (albeit a small channel). Gemma Hayter has been right up there in the Womens Series in 2024 and has also performed well on the Modus stage. Robin Byrne from Ireland has the potential to improve somewhat and Rhian O'Sullivan is no stranger to 100+ averages. And there are a host of names just behind them. 

Then there are the young players Paige Pauling and Sophie McKinlay, who are leading the way for the new wave of Junior graduates. The JDC players are already looking up to them!

I think there is a massive gap in the market to promote the Women's game. Viewing figures will increase if we are more aware of the players. That comes from more media exposure, so people start to talk about them. More exposure will also generate mote money into the Women's game, which in turn, creates more interest. 

The Women's Series is still very new, so shouldn't be compared to the other Tours just yet. The PDC just need to recognise that there is huge potential here and support it whole heartedly. The number of competitors will increase, and with Beau Greaves showing just what women players can do, then I am hopeful that this largely untapped area of darts will blossom. 

Finally, this piece isn't meant to take anything away from other pioneers of the Women's game (some of whom are mentioned above), but just wanted to highlight the opportunity that there currently is to get young female players into the game and make the Women's game more noticeable, and therefore more competitive and appealing to the wider public. 

PDC World Series/WDF Las Vegas Open/JDC Q School Round-Up (plus a couple more events)

 This has been a very busy period in the World of Darts.

There has been the PDC World Series in Bahrain, the WDF Las Vegas Open, JDC Q School, PDC Challenge Tour, Modus Legends Series and Arab Federations Cup. 

It's great to see such a variation areas and levels of darts. We can see those who may be successful in the future, who has early season form, and spotting any interesting results. 

PDC Bahrain Masters (World Series)

The first of the PDC World Series events began in Bahrain, which seems to becoming a permanent feature in the darts calendar. Bahrain are still finding their feet with the game, but the enthusiasm they are showing cannot be denied. The game continues to grow here. 

The qualifiers were a mix of Bahrain and Asian players, with Pablo Nebrida the only to get past Round One, by beating Rob Cross. Nebrida had a good World Championship and will be keen to watch him on the PDC Asian Tour.

Second Round saw Gerwyn Price back to his best as he beat Luke Littler 6-2 with an average of 115. He seems to be having a revival, so will be interesting to follow him this year. Stephen Bunting was also dominant, beating Chris Dobey 6-0.  

Bunting and Price then both won their semi-finals to set up a mouth watering final. After Luke Littler, these players seem to be the next best in form. Bunting went 4-1 up in quick fashion, but Price pulled it back to 5-3 and 6-4. However Bunting was too strong, particularly on his own throw and ran away an 8-4 winner. 

This was a great start to the season for both players, who will soon begin their Premier League campaign. Definitely something for Lukes Littler and Humphries to think about. 

WDF Las Vegas Open

 A large line-up for the first major WDF event of the year. Predominately North American, there were also players from around the world in attendance. The winner of both the Men's and Women's single titles would receive a place at the 2025 WDF World Championships, so all to play for. 

In the Women's events, it was the British contingent that won through. Deta Hedman won the Main LVO Open event, beating her Welsh counterpart, Rhian O'Sullivan 5-4. Jessica Melton was the best of the American challenge, making the semi final. Hedman has now booked her spot in the WDF World Championship in November. 

The second main event saw Rhian O'Sullivan go one better and grab the title. She beat Japanese player Sayuri Nishiguchi 5-4 . Good to see a new name appear in the final and will be keeping an eye Nishiguchi. Maybe she can follow in Mikuru Suzuki's footsteps??

The Men's LVO Open was won by a North American, in Canadian player, David Cameron. He was one of the favourites for the title, and didn't disappoint, beating American player Jeff Springer Jr 6-3. Cameron, like Hedman, now gets a place at the WDF World Championships.

The Mens LVC event was an all-American affair, with Chris Lim taking the title beating David Fatum. Both players will now be looking to put in strong performances on the CDC Tour, which is looking evermore competitive. 

JDC Q School

As mentioned in a previous post, this is the start of many players' careers. Players aged under 18 competing to play on the top level JDC Tour, known as the Advanced Tour. 

The standard was very high, considering this is basically entry level. But nothing entry level about the qualifiers. 

Ben Townley was particularly impressive in Event one. Not only did he win it, but he had the highest average, best 180%, best 140% and best checkout %. This done in a very competitive field. He could be a player to keep an eye on. 

Jack Courtney won through in Event Two, beating Kaya Basal 4-3. Basal would go on to also get a Advanced Tour card, by finishing second on the Order of Merit.

Pre-tournament favourite, Lex Paeshuysen, from Belgium, had two very good events, but didn't quite make the final. This changed in Event 3, where he won through against another favoured contender, Jayden Walker 4-3. Walker would later qualify via the Order of Merit.

The final event saw the Slovenian youngster, Dominik Kocik win in the final, beating Lee Bradshaw 4-2. Kocik had been playing consistently well over the previous events, so was no surprise that he came through to win. 

A very interesting weekend containing maybe the stars of tomorrow. I will be looking to see how these players, amongst other fare over the year, and who may be able to breakthrough. 

PDC Challenge Tour 1-5

The headlines of this set of events goes to Beau Greaves. She won two of the five events in emphatic style, showing she has the capability to match the men, and potentially challenge on the Pro Tour.

The first event, saw a packed line up, full of experience and talent. The quarter finals saw appearances from Mervyn King and Simon Whitlock, who were aiming to bounce straight back to the Pro Tour. However both lost and  it was another star of the game, Beau Greaves that came to the fore. After a 106+ average in her semi-final, Greaves went on to beat Stefan Bellmont 5-4 in a closely fought final. Greaves showed no nerves and that she belongs in this company. 

The second event was a little worse for Greaves, but not for trying. She lost 5-4 to Daniel Ayres, despite hitting a 97 average. Just one of those games. For some, a surprising quarter final line up, but all deserved. Tommy Lishman, in particular, making his second semi final out of two event.He beat Kevin Burness 5-1 to progress to the final, where he was joined by Carl Sneyd, who beat Jeffrey Sparidaans 5-3. In the final, Sneyd had too much for Lishman and raced to a 5-1 victory. Both players picking up valuable Order of Merit points, and a possible shot in the Pro Tour. 

The third event, saw Beau Greaves refreshed as she progressed through the rounds. Jimmy van Schie and John Henderson also found some form, as they made the semi finals. Kevin Burness was also carrying his form from the previous event to join them. The final saw Greaves in full control as she whitewashed John Henderson 5-0, with a 101 average. Greaves looked particularly strong all day, but was good to see John Henderson back climb the Order of Merit.

The fourth event saw some former Pro Tour regulars make the latter stages, Simon Whitlock made the quarter final, before losing out to Joe Hunt, who was having a great day. The other semi finalists were Mervyn King, Ted Evetts and Darius Labanauskas, so a lot of experience here.

King progressed to the final in a tight tussle with Hunt, winning 5-4, but Hunt will gain a lot of confidence from that. He faced Labanauskas, who dispatched Evetts 5-2. In the final, it was Labanauskas who won through, winning 5-3. King had the higher average, but was unable to displace the Lithuanian. 

The fifth and final event of the weekend saw a resurgence by Stefan Bellmont, who had been runner-up to Beau Greaves in event one. He navigated his way to the semi finals and was joined by another player that had just lost his Tour card, in Danny Jansen. Michael Flynn was on fire, defeating Andreas Harrysson 5-0, with a 102+ average and they were joined by Aden Kirk. Jansen got the better of Flynn in the semi final, despite Flynn averaging 98+ and Bellmont defeated Kirk. Jansen got off to a flying start on the 2024 Challenge Tour and was looking to do the same here, however Bellmont had other ideas and deservedly claimed the win with a 5-1 victory.

So an exciting first weekend of the Challenge Tour. Things went particularly well for Beau Greaves and Stefan Bellmont, but were some encouraging performances from the like of Tommy Lishman, Carl Sneyd and Joe Hunt, (to name but a few).  This promises to be a very tight year on the Challenge Tour and we may see it go down to the wire in November.

Modus Series Legends Week

Twelve of the more 'senior' players too part in the Modus Legends week competition, which culminated into a finals night on Saturday 18th January. 

Steve Beaton waltzed through the qualifying week, showing he has not lost his touch, despite opting to retire from the Pro Tour. He was joined by Neil Duff, Richie Burnett, Darryl Fitton, Devon Petersen and Richie Howson. Howson was particularly impressive in qualifying, winning all 10 of his Group C matches. This promised to be a tight final night, with any of the players in with a chance of winning. Beaton came through and then beat Duff 4-3 to book his place in the final. Not surprisingly, he was to face Howson, who maintained his undefeated run, by getting to the semi final and then beating Devon Petersen 4-2. So to the final, and this looked like a very even contest. Howson specialises in Seniors/Legends events, against Beaton, fresh from the Pro Tour. It was Howson that eventually came out on top with a 4-2 victory. I'm sure we will be seeing more of these players in future Seniors and Legends events.

Arab Federations Cup

I thought I'd add a note of the Arab Federations Cup singles. Darts seems to be growing in the Middle East, with Bahrain, in particular, leading the way. The leading players in Bahrain, Basem Mahmood and Abdullah Saeed, both played in the recent PDC World Series event, and so was no surprise they were the finalists here. Mahmood proved to be too good for his compatriot, as he won 7-2 and claimed the title. 

It's really good to see so many new countries taking the sport seriously and it will be interesting to see how these emerging countries perform over the coming months and years. 

Modus Super Series Week 1

Following Q School, the Modus Series returns in earnest. Although I have enjoyed the Women's and Legend's weeks. 

And it is a week, where there is pretty much a case for all of these players, such is the depth of talent. 

Bookmakers' favourite is Scott Taylor. He always performs well here and is a consistent player. On his day, he can be unstoppable, but does have his lapses, which may be the difference here. The same can also be said of Gary Stone. Another player, that at his best, is quite brilliant, but has the odd slip up, at the wrong time. If either player keeps their consistency, then they will go a long way.

A player, I'm particularly interested to see is Adam Sevada. This American player has been fantastic on the CDC Tour and has been given his deserved place. I would say he is as good as any American player currently, and if he avoids the stage nerves, he could spring a surprise. Jacob Womack also represents the CDC and finished 8th on the tour last year. I think he will be the second strongest of the Ameicans, but no reason why he can't do well here. 

Two players that have been here several times before are Jack Tweddell and Joe Croft. Tweddell had a good Q School and Challenge Tour weekend. He is a very heavy scorer and this could be his time to shine. If his end game is good, then he may well claim the title. Croft is not a stranger to winning, particularly in ADC events. He is a consistent Challenge Tour player and has been around for a while now. He seems to be improving each year and I think he will make finals night.

Richard Rowlands and Ross Montgomery represent the experience here. Both will be comfortable on the stage and both will not be overawed by the other players. Rowlands has won a Series before and will use that, to get himself to finals night.Montgomery can compete with anyone on his day, and will not give in easily.

Neil Meneer could be a real surprise package here. Another ADC specialist, he has also played on the Challenge Tour. He is a player of real quality and has beaten a lot of his counterparts, especially in the South West. If he keeps his nerve, he could be one to look out for. Welshman, Alec Small also appears and has been here on many occasions. A solid player, he may need to up his game a little, but is a capable type, so can't be ruled out. 

Finally two Europeans, Bradley Roes and Arne Spee. Roes is another that has played here several times and is a young player still looking for his big break. He can compete here, but must remain consistent. Dutchman Spee is a bit of an unknown, with limited big stage experience. He has played here before though, so that will certainly help.

So, in summary, it will be a very close week, with no clear favourite, as far as I can tell. I think due to his power scoring, Jack Tweddell just takes it for me. He will need to keep strong at the end of games though. After that, I would probably give Joe Croft the nod due to his consistent play. But as I said at the beginning, this could literally be anyone's. 

JDC Q School

Saturday 18th January begins another season of the very beginning of a darts career. This is the JDC Q School. Players from various countries such as Belgium, Slovakia and India - will compete for a place on the prestigious JDC Advanced Tour. Players on the Advanced Tour are already at a very good standard and anyone qualifying from this Q-School will most definitely have deserved it. As well as the best junior players going head to head, the Advanced Tour also unlocks other opportunities, such as representing your country, or competing at the JDC World Championships - the final of which, is held during the PDC World Championships on the Alexandra Palace stage, in front of a packed audience. This is a huge inspiration, as players aim to emulate players that have gone before them, such as Keane Barry, Rusty-Jake Rodriguez and Luke Littler.

Speaking of Luke Littler. His rapid rise to the top of the darts world has been of huge benefit to the JDC, as numbers are growing all the time. Q School numbers are on the up again. And as more Junior Academies open up, I'm sure this growing trend will continue.

The event runs very similar to the PDC Q School. There are four events played over two days. The winners of each event automatically qualify for the Advanced score. The remaining nine qualifying spots go to the players based on an Order of Merit table, so each win and each leg is crucial. 

Having a glance at the field, there are two stand out names, both of which have received a fair amount of media attention. Firstly, is Lex Paeshuyse. This 13 year old won the 2024 JDC World Championship, with a 90+ average. He should find this level comfortable, and qualifying will be a must. Strange things happen in darts, but I think he is a very strong candidate. The second is 12 year old Jayden Walker. He came to the for, whilst playing at a Modus Super Series exhibition. He beat Luke Humphries 2-1. And to cement that, he hit a 100+ average in doing so. Both players have a very bright future in the game and will be interesting to see how they perform.

The standard of emerging young talent seems to be improving each year, so I will certainly be trying to spot more names that could be the game's stars of the future. 

Challenge Tour 1-5 - Names to look out for

 The new season has already begun, with the PDC World Championship and Q-School already done and dusted. WDF will start shortly and Modus is in its second week, so we turn to the first Challenge Tour weekend, incorporating events 1-5. 

Which names will show early promise? Will any of the players that have just lost their Tour card,bounce straight back? And will any newcomers and/or youngsters come flying through?

Here's a list of 10 players to follow this weekend:

Andreas Harrysson

Harrysson narrowly missed out at Q-School, despite being one of the favourites to qualify. Hopefully he won't let this get to him and can get off to a strong start in 2025. He has the ability to challenge at the top end of the Challenge Tour. Occasionally he falls short just at the end of tournaments, but some consistent performances over the weekend could see him in a solid position. 

Jimmy van Schie

Another player that was heavily tipped to qualify from Q-School. He was also favourite for the WDF World Championship, but fell short. I believe these near misses will only make him stronger. He will be determined to make the Pro Tour in 2026 and definitely has the ability. This could be a good year for the Dutchman

Daniel Klose

Klose made a late run for a qualifying place at Q-School, but just fell short. He is a player that has just dropped off the Main Tour, but is more than capable or bouncing straight back. He will want to be performing well this weekend to get high up on the Challenge Tour Order of Merit, to earn Pro Tour spots as and when they arise. Sometimes underrated among the large wave of German players, but he is right up there with any of them 

Jeroen Mioch

Mioch has been around for quite some time, without really breaking through. Looking at his performance stats at the recent Q School, he was among the best. In particular with his scoring. If he can gain some early wins, this could set him up for a successful start.  He could be the surprise package this year. 

Anton Ostlund

There appears to be a resurgence in Swedish darts currently, with Viktor Tingstrom and Oskar Lukasiak making the Pro Tour and Andreas Harrysson not far behind .Anton Ostlund can also be added to the list. He was another that came so close to making it through Q-School, with leg difference costing him. He is an up and coming player and played well on the Development Tour last year. If he keeps improving, he will be a tough opponent. I expect him to go well this weekend. 

Jamie Atkins

One of the best UK players not to qualify from Q School, Jamie Atkins will be one of the front runners on the Challenge Tour in 2025. Ultra consistent and improving all the time. He has also been one of the top performers on the county scene and has the ability to make the pro Tour. 

Tom Sykes

Another quality player that was very unlucky not to make it through Q School. Sykes had a good 2024, in particular in the Modus Super Series. Q School may just have been a blip, and he has enough in his armoury to position himself at the top end of the Challenge Tour Order of Merit. Another very consistent player. 

Lee Evans

Evans recently dropped off the Pro Tour, but he has the ability and game to bounce straight back. He has been in this position before and will know all about the Challenge Tour. A very experienced player, he will not be overawed by the Challenge Tour and I can see a very consistent year ahead. I expect to see him at the top end of the Order of Merit, come November.

Graham Hall

Like Lee Evans, Graham Hall has just dropped outside of the Pro Tour. He played well in his two years on the Tour and is definitely still good enough to make a quick return. Ideally Hall will want to perform well in these first few events to gain confidence and put the pressure on the others. 

Henry Coates

Coates has been improving steadily year on year. He has had some good results in the Modus Super Series and performed very well on the Development Tour in 2024, finishing in 12th position. He also had a good Q School, showing that he is in good form. If he plays enough Challenge Tour events, he could finish well on the Order of Merit. 

Modus Legends Week

Modus continues to innovate and mix things up with their Super Series. 

Last week was a successful Women's tournament, won by Kirsi Viinikainen .

This week is the turn of some former legends of the game. And it's a tough field. 

The two favourites are Steve Beaton and Vincent van der Voort. This is no surprise as they have been at the top for so many years. This year both have dropped off the Main Tour, but want to still remain competitive. Here is our first chance to see how they perform. Both players have an outstanding chance of winning this week.

Devon Petersen, has shown some of his old form of late, by winning the ADC Global title. If he continues this run, then he will be a tough opponent to beat. 

World Seniors and Modus stalwarts, Martin Adams and Robert Thornton will also provide tough opposition. Both players are very familiar with the venue and format. Thornton, in particular is still playing to a very high standard. 

World Seniors specialist, Richie Howson is yet another to consider in this tight field. Anything that incorporates Senior's darts will see Howson there or thereabouts. 

Hard to know how Chris Mason and Darryl Fitton will get on. Obviously they are still good players, but there's not much data to go on. I think this could be too strong a field, but if they are consistent, they could cause a surprise or two. 

Former World Champions Richie Burnett and Neil Duff cannot be discounted. Both still playing top level darts and both familiar with the Modus stage. It's whether they can keep in touch with the likes of Beaton and Van der Voort. If they can make the final stage, then they will have as good a chance as anyone. 

Finally there is Wes Newton and Trina Gulliver. Gulliver showed moments of brilliance in the Womens field, last week. However, she does need to be more consistent. Wes Newton is an unknown quantity. He will need a good start, otherwise he may fall away. Worth keeping an eye on. 

So in summary, the favourites Van der Voort and Beaton seem to be the main contenders. I think they will be the finalists, but Devon Petersen will be waiting in the wings if either slip up.