Weekend Round Up 31st Jan - 2nd Feb 2025

 The first major PDC Tournament of the year (after the World Championships, of course) ,was the reintroduction of the Winmau Masters. Also played was the brutal Dutch Open, where around 6000 men and women competed. There was also Week 2 of the Modus Super Series and the World Seniors qualifying stages. 

PDC Winmau Masters

This was played under the original Masters format of best of 3 legs per set. The format can be a leveller, as it is easier to get back into a match, even if you are quite far behind. Potentially upsets were to be had. 

The first round did see a number of big names fall. Rob Cross, Dave Chisnall, Gary Anderson, Mike De Decker and Michael Smith were all casualties. Smith was to announce that he has been plagued by injury, as he tried to explain his recent poor ,by his standards), form.

Jonny Clayton, however was very impressive, hitting a massive 112.77 average on his way to a 3-1 victory over Martin Schindler. Luke Littler was also in good form, hitting a 104.33 average in beating Andy Baetens 3-0. 

The last 16 saw two of the best matches of the whole tournament. First Damon Heta overcame Gerwyn Price in a 4-3 thriller. Heta was slightly behind on the averages, but Heta's better finishing was to be the key. The second game was Dimiti Van den Bergh's 4-3 win over Michael van Gerwyn. Van den Bergh had been out of sorts recently, but he showed some of his old class in this game, including a fantastic 9- dart finish. 

The Lukes, Humphries and Littler, made their way through, alongside the resurgent Jonny Clayton and the in-form Stephen Bunting. 

Humphries and Van den Bergh had fairly comfortable quarter final victories, with both winning 4-1 against Damon Heta and Nathan Aspinall respectively. Stephen Bunting failed in his attempt to make 3 TV finals in a row, as Danny Noppert came through with a tightly fought  4-3 win. In the other quarter final, Clayton was still showing top form as he more than matched Littler for a 4-2 victory and 103.96 average. Littler averaged 108, which shows just how good Clayton would have had to played to win. 

In the semi final Clayton was just too good for Van den Bergh. Despite moments of resistance, Clayton always looked in control. Very much like the Clayton of a few years ago, where he was so dominant. A 5-2 victory for Clayton sent him into the final. The second semi final was a similar story and and the same 5-2 scoreline. Humphries was a little slow to start, but then got into top gear to secure another televised final. 

The final was a real nail-biter between the two best players in the tournament. The first 4 sets were shared, but then Humphries went up another gear. He won 3 sets in a row to close in on the victory. However Clayton would not let go and gradually pulled his way back to 5-5. The momentum was with Clayton and he had chances to win, but Humphries dug in and eventually won through in a last leg decider.  A great match to end a great tournament, and really good to see Clayton back on form.

Dutch Open 

One of the hardest tournaments to win, the Dutch Open is renowned for its massive field. In the men's competition, there were over 4000 competitors, and the women's around 350. To play so many rounds and win the title takes a physical and mental strength. The winners of the Men's and Women's events would guarantee a place at the WDF World Championships. 

Womens Singles

This seemed like another chance for Beau Greaves to claim a major title. Already having a great early season, she was the player to beat. Dutch hopes were with Aileen de Graaf and Lerena Rietbergen, who both have also been playing well early season. 

At the quarter final stages, there were some familiar names. Greaves, de Graaf and Rietbergen all there, alongside the promising Paige Pauling and Lorraine Hyde, the experienced Scottish player. Also making her way steadily through the rounds, was Welsh player Rhian O'Sullivan, who had already showed good form in winning the Women's warm-up event. 

Hyde and Greaves swept past their quarter final opponents with 4-0 victories over Lisa Zollikofer and Paige Pauling respectively. Rietbergen won the battle of the Dutch players, with a 4-2 win over the experienced Anca Zijlstra, while O'Sullivan came through a tough match in beating de Graaf 4-3. 

Rietbergen had a relatively easy path to the final in beating Hyde 4-0. Hyde not quite up to her best and Rietbergen took full advantage. The second semi final was a much tighter affair.  Greaves took a hold of the game at 3-2, but O'Sullivan dug in and took the final two legs for a great 4-3 victory. O'Sullivan has the capabilities to be at the very top, and this proved to be the case. 

In the final, the standard dropped slightly and seemed to be more about classic matchplay. After O'Sullivan stormed to a 3-0 lead, it was tough for Rietbergen to come back and O'Sullivan held on for a 5-2 victory, to take the title. This will be a great marker for O'Sullivan as she will want to be competing for titles on the Womens Series. 

Mens Singles

A massive field of over 4000 players took place. The winner of this would certainly be very worthy. With so many games to play, it can take its toll on the very best. 

As the tournament progressed to the quarter finals, the Dutch were looking strong, with 6 of their players making this stage. David Fatum of the USA had progressed through and was looking a danger, as was Thomas Junghans of Switzerland. 

In the two all-Dutch encounters, Martijn Kleermaker made easy work of Berry Pater 5-0, and Jeffrey Sparidaans was too strong for Mario Robbe, winning 5-2. Another Dutchman, Danny van Trijp, also qualified, beating Junghans 5-1 in a one-sided affair. However Fatum stopped the Dutch clean sweep as he overcame Luitzen Elzinga 5-3.

The semi-final then changed to set play. This seemed to suit Sparidaans as he comfortably came through against Van Trijp 2-0. Van Trijp was below his best and just couldn't get going. In the second semi final, Fatum was too strong for Kleermaker and stopped the hopes of an all-Dutch final. 

However the final was all about Sparidaans, as he won the first set without dropping a leg. After that Fatum faced an uphill task. Although he won legs in the next two sets, it was not enough and Sparidaans kept the Dutch Open trophy in the Netherlands. 

Modus Super Series Week Two

Week 2 in the Modus Super Series was filled with experience. Ex-Pro Tour stalwarts, Simon Whitlock, Andy Hamilton and Jamie Hughes were present, alongside Modus Super Series winners Adam Mould and Graham Hall. The final player was Jenson Walker, who has been playing really well, particularly in the Junior ranks. 

Mould and Whitlock both gained wins over Hall, which meant the pre-tournament favourite made an early exit. In the other group Jamie Hughes claimed 4-0 and 4-1 wins over Hamilton and Walker respectively. In a nail-biting decider, Walker showed his class as he overcame the former World Championship finalist, Hamilton, with a 4-3 win. 

The semi final had the player who has been there and done it, in Whitlock, take on the new 'kid' on the block, in Walker. Walker seems to be growing in confidence all the time and showed no nerves against his experienced opponent, winning the match 4-3. Adam Mould showed his comfort on the Modus Stage, when he beat Jamie Hughes. Again by a 4-3 margin. 

The final saw Walker again step up to the task. Mould had been here before and would be a tough opponent. However Walker, again, showed his confidence, as he won 4-2 and took the title. He will be a tough opponent in Champions Week, and will certainly be a player to follow for the future. 

Seniors World Championship Qualifiers

A weekend consisting of 3 qualifying events took place on 1-2 February 2025. Although the fields were relatively small (around 50 players), the talent was of a very high standard. Several former Tour players were represented, along with former World Champions. 

The winner of these events could easily progress far in the actual Seniors World Championship, so definitely worth keeping an eye on them. 

The first qualifier saw Graham Usher triumph. After recently falling off the Pro Tour, he showed that he is still a top quality player. He beat Mark McGeeney and Simon Stevenson in the quarter and semi final respectively, before beating James Richardson 5-3 to take his place at the Seniors World Championships.

The second qualifier went to former BDO World Champion, Richie Burnett. Burnett had been hitting big averages all day, culminating in a 6-0 whitewash of Mark McGeeney, in the semi final. McGeeney had narrowly missed out in the previous qualifier. It was former Pro Tour player, Steve Hine that met Burnett in the final. And it seemed Hine was going to make it, as he stormed into a 4-1 lead. However, the fighting spirit of Burnett kicked in and he was to win the next 5 legs in a row to take the win. 

The final qualifier was won by the experienced Michael Huntley, from Wales. Huntley has been a regular player on the Senior's Tour, as well as ADC and Modus Super Series events. The latter stages saw some 'new' players involved. John Mann beat Michael Wiles 6-5 to make the final, where as the second semi final saw more experience, as Huntley overcame former BDO World Champion, Scott Waites by the same margin. 

The final was a one-sided affair, with the experience of Huntley coming to the fore. He swept past Mann for a 6-1 victory, although Mann can be very pleased with his performance. Be interesting to see how he plays on the Senior's Tour. 

Modus Super Series Week 2 Preview

 The second week of the Modus super Series begins today and the line-up is once again stacked. There's a lot of experience, plus one or two up and coming challengers. 

Simon Whitlock makes his debut in the Modus Super Series and will be looking to get off to a good start. Although he recently lost his Tour card, he is still a fantastic player, so should be around on Finals night. 

Two more players that have also recently come from the PDC Tour are Jamie Hughes and Graham Hall. Hall has a small advantage, in that he has played here before, (and with success).  He will feel comfortable in this environment and had a good Challenge Tour. I'd probably make him the favourite. Hughes is obviously a very capable player, but hard to know how he will take to the Modus Series. He is experienced though, so he shouldn't have too many problems, but will need to wait and see. 

Perennial Modus players, Adam Mould and Tommy Morris present a threat. Both players have performed extremely well here in the past and will be tough opponents for the field. They are both consistent types and rarely play badly. One or both should make it through to Finals night. 

  Ashley Coleman Andreas Nikolaou Steve Robertson James Hubbard

In terms of experience, there's not many players with more than Andy Hamilton and Martin Adams. Although both players are maybe a little past their peak, they can still play to a high standard. Hamilton is still competing on the Challenge Tour, and doing ok there. The key here, is to get some early points on the board. Hamilton has the better chance of making it to finals night, but I suppose it would be foolish to write Adams off. 

Jenson Walker represents a young player that is gradually making his mark. He was the England youth captain and has been successful on the JDC, Development and Challenge Tours. He seems to be progressing each year and has a tenacious spirit. He could be the surprise package this week. 

Ashley Coleman and James Hubbard are both players that are hard to predict. They have both had moments where they can beat anyone, but also have dips in form at crucial times. If they can keep their nerve, then they have a chance. 

Andreas Nikolaou had a good debut on the Modus Series, showing that he was not just making up the numbers. They Cypriot player showed glimpses of brilliance, although sometimes his finishing was questionable. He will learn from his first appearance, and will hope to sneak through to finals night. 

Steve Robertson is a bit of an unknown quantity. That could be dangerous for the other players, as often the 'outsider' surprises and makes it through the round robin stage. One to keep an eye on.

In summary, I think the former Tour players will pose the biggest threat. Graham Hall in particular, is still playing very well. Coupled with his previous experience here, I think that gives him the edge over Hughes and Whitlock. Look out for Jensen Walker too, as he may cause a few upsets. 

Darts Global Round Up 24th-26th January 2025

 

Another busy weekend in the world of darts. 

The WDF held the Romanian Open and Classic competitions, with the winners of the Open events booking a place at the WDF World Championships. In the Netherlands, the PDC World Series continued, with the Dutch Masters. And in  Dubai, the PDC Asian Tour began, with events 1-4.

Dutch Masters World Series

The World Series of Darts came to the Netherlands, which is, perhaps,the hardest of the World Series events, (except the finals of course). The qualifying players are all top PDC players, so there are no easy first round matches. And this proved to be the case. Kevin Doets cruised past Nathan Aspinall 6-1 and Raymond van Barneveld beat Chris Dobey 6-5, with an incredible 148 checkout, to drive the local fans into a frenzy. Most impressively was Jermaine Wattimena, who beat Luke Humphries 6-3, with relative ease. He looked relentless throughout. Gian van Veen can feel a little hard done by, when losing 6-5 to Stephen Bunting, after fighting back from 5-2 down and hitting a 105+ average. 

However the Dutch players' luck ran out in the quarter finals, with all four players losing to their British counterparts. Luke Littler wouldn't let Michael van Gerwen gain revenge in a World Championship rematch, as he won 6-5. Price and Bunting also came through, alongside Rob Cross, who up to this point, remained under the radar. 

Cross came to life in the semi final by winning quite comfortably against Price 7-3. He set up a final against the Bahrain Masters winner Bunting, who is the form player at the moment. 

In the final Cross raced to a 5-2 lead, only for Bunting to pull it back to 5-5. It looked like Bunting might be taking back to back finals, however Cross kicked on and took the next 3 legs in succession to claim the title, with a 101+ average. Cross may have been overlooked after his defeat in the Bahrain Masters by Paolo Nebrida, but that obviuosly galvanised him and he showed why he is still one of the top players in the world. 

PDC Asian Tour 1-4

The Asian Tour kicked off this weekend, with the first four events of the season. Players from all around Asia took part in Dubai. Alexis Toylo was the number one ranked player, but there was plenty of talent on offer, including the Singapore player, Paul Lim, who at 71, is still a magnificent player. 

In event 1, the main contenders were making their way through. One name, in particular was interesting - Mikuru Suzuki. This seems like a sensible route for her to take, as many of her tournaments, within the Women's Series, involves a lot of cost and travel. Whether she concentrates on one tour, or both, remains to be seen, but this may be a good way to get a PDC Championship spot, whilst improving her game. It could be her diary was free, so I guess we wait and see how the season pans out. 

Paul Lim and Paolo Nebrida made the quarter finals, but could go no further. Alexis Toylo was proving his worth and sailed into the semi final, where he would meet Suzuki. The other semi final saw Tomoya Goto, another main contender, play Alain Abiabi. Goto beat AbiAbi 5-0, but will be interesting to see how AbiAbi gets on during the season. Toylo had a tougher match against Suzuki which went all the way, before he triumphed 5-4. The final saw Toylo take the first event, winning 5-3, but both players will be challenging for the top no doubt. 

Event 2 was all about Lourence Ilagan. After an average first event, where he lost in the last 16, Ilagan started to assert himself. Alexis Toylo couldn't make it two event victories in a row, after losing to Ryuta Anihara in the last 16. Anihara was playing extremely well. Nitin Kumar, in turn, beat a below average Anihara and secured his place in the semi final. Kumar played at the PDC World Championships in 2025, showing he definitely has the ability to compete. Ilagan had his hardest game of the event in beating Yuta Hayashi 5-2. They were joined by the eye-catching Taiwanese player, Man Lok Lee and Filipino, Jasper Natividad. 

Ilagan made short work of Natividad, with a 5-0 whitewash, and Lee was also convincing , as he beat Kumar 5-1. So to the final, which promised to be a close contest. However, Ilagan was unstoppable, as he won 5-1, with an impressive 100+ average. In fact Ilagan lost only 4 legs all event. He was certainly putting his stamp on the event, and his rivals had something to think about. 

The third event was another events where the 'big' names were playing well. Into the quarter finals were Ilagan, Toylo, Lim, Nebrida and Goto. The dangerous Royden Lam was also showing form. Lam has experience at the PDC World Championship and World Cup, so was certainly a contender. 

Lam beat the impressive Arihara to progress, while Toylo beat Paul Lim. Ilagan was too much for the inexperienced An Shen Lu from Chinese Taipei, winning 4-1. and the semi final was completed by Paolo Nebrida, who won a high quality match against Goto 4-1. 

In won of the matches of the weekend, Nebrida faced Toylo. Toylo went 3-1 ahead, but was pinned back to 3-3. Toylo then went 4-3 ahead, but Nebrida dug in and won the next 2 legs, to make the final. In the second semi final, Ilagan was too strong for Lam and ran away with a 5-2 victory. The final would be tough for Ilagan, as the in-form Nebrida was playing well. Ilagan, however was in poweful scoring mode, similar to event 2. He hit a 100+ average to beat Nebrida 5-2, who just couldn't raise his game enough.

The final event saw some of the bigger names falter, as perhaps, fatigue was kicking in. However that would be a bad excuse, as 71 year old Paul Lim was still playing at the top of his game. He entered the quarter final, alongside Paolo Nebrida and Royden Lam,  Yoshihisa Baba had been playing well all weekend, without quite breaking through. Maybe this was his event?  Lim and Nebrida came through their quarter final matches, with 4-1 victories each. The lesser known Dolreich Tongcopanon and Alvin Delgado made the other semi final spots.  Lim played Nebrida in a very one sided match. Nebrida could never get going and lost 5-1. In the other semi final, Tongcopanon was a 5-3 winner, although neither player were at their best. 

The final saw Lim as the favourite against his more inexperienced opponent. This seemed to weigh a little on Tongcopanon, as he didn't play his best. Lim won through 5-3. However Tongcopanon can gain a lot from this result and will be good to see how he plays in the next events. For Lim, he defies age each time he steps onto the oche. A real inspiration and still and incredibly talented player. 

Romanian Darts Open and Classic

Like the previous week's Las Vegas Open, the winner of the Men's and Women's events would get an automatic spot at the WDF World Championships. The Classic titles, are still prestigious and would certainly help with ranking points. 

Romanian Open - Men's

There was a definite international feel to the Men's quarter finals, with 5 countries represented. Belgium had 3 representatives with Brian Raman, Francois Schweyen and Sybren Gijbels. Raman and Schweyen were to progress, winning 4-2 and 4-1 respectively. Welsh player, David Davies, always a big scorer, beat Romania's last hope in the event, Daniel Racoveneau 4-2. The last semi final spot was taken by Greek player, and former PDC Tour card holder, John Michael who beat Gijbels 4-1, with a 96+ average. 

Raman then had to face his compatriot, Schweyen, with both players playing well of late.However Raman was too good and won the match 4-1. In the other semi-final, Davies was unable to find his usual scoring power and lost to Michael 4-1.  The final seemed like an even enough affair and started off that way, with the score going to 2-2. However Raman proved too good and won the next 3 legs for a 5-2 victory. Raman now takes his place at the WDF World Championship, later this year. 

Romanian Open - Women's

Several big names made their way through to the latter stages. There were also two young British players making their way through too, which is encouraging for the Women's game. 

Lerena Rietbergen had an easy time in her quarter final, beating a below par Kirsty Hutchinson 4-0. Hutchinson had looked good in the earlier rounds, but just couldn't get going.  Kirsi Viinikainen had a similar problem against Aileen de Graaf, and faltered to a 4-1 defeat. In a battle of the English players, Deta Hedman continued her dominant form of late by winning 4-0 against former Women's Series event winner, Natalie Gilbert. The last quarter final, saw the two English 18 year olds, Hannah Meek and Amy Evans play. Although neither played particularly well, it was Evans that came through, winning 4-2.It's exciting to see more young players making the latter stages of events. If they play on the Women's Series this year, these will be two to follow. 

In the semi final, both games were won easily. Hedman, with all her experience, was just too good for Evans, as she won 4-0. The other semi final saw de Graaf win a little easier than expected over Rietbergen, with a 4-1 victory. 

So it was the experienced and perennial title winners to play the final. And the game was as close as expected. De Graaf flew into a 4-1 lead, but Hedman, tenacious as ever, came back to make it 4-4. De Graaf, however, showed some class, with an 18 dart deciding leg to take the title and her place at the WDF Women's World Championship. The match was certainly very close, as both players had nearly identical averages .

Romanian Classic -Men's

Sweden's Johan Engstrom made his second quarter final of the weekend, and the experienced trio of Aaron Turner, David Pallett and Marko Kantele . Pallett, in particular, has been playing well of late. The other quarter finalists, were less known, and maybe names to add to the watch list. Brandon Stowe showed his class with a 4-0 victory over Aaron Turner, and Raymond van den Ende, was equally impressive in beating Kantele 4-1. David Pallett ensured his path to the semi final, with a 108+ average and 4-1 win over Engstrom, and Paul Croucher beat Jack Hill

Pallett then won through to the final with a 4-2 victory over van den Ende. Pallett, probably had too much experience, and this gave him that edge. Stowe beat Croucher by the same margin in the other semi final, but Croucher should take heart from this performance.

In the final, again it was Pallett's experience that shone through. Although both players had similar averages, Pallett was hitting more crucial darts at crucial times. This earned him a 5-3 victory. Pallett will hopefully continue this good form and we may see him at the top end of the rankings this year, Stowe can definitely gain a lot of confidence from making the final, and I look forward to watching his next tournament

Romanian Classic - Women's 

The Women's Classic had a familiar feel, with 5 of the Open quarter finalists, making this quarter final. Promisingly, Hannah Meek and Amy Evans were there again. They were joined by another teenager, in Sophie McKinlay.  McKinlay beat Evans 4-1, and showed that she is that little bit better at the moment. I'm sure there will be many more matches for the result to be reversed in the coming years. Deta Hedman had too much for Meek, also with a 4-1 win . Perhaps surprisingly, Irina Armstrong beat Open winner, Aileen de Graaf 4-0. Armstrong is a very good player, but the form book suggested de Graaf to win. Armstrong won convincingly, 4-0, The last game saw Lerena Rietbergen beat Kirsty Hutchinson  again, this time 4-1.

The semi final saw both games as whitewashes. Rietbergen beat Armstrong 4-0 and McKinlay beat Hedman by the same score. McKinlay also hit an impressive 85+ average.

The final then seemed like it should be close. Both players were close with the averages, but the greater experience paid off again. Rietbergen won 5-2, but McKinlay will be back for sure. A good win for Rietbergen, as she sometimes doesn't get the credit she is due. What is obvious though, is the Women's game is on the up!

So How I Am Getting On With My Quest For Q School

 I haven't reported on my own progress for a little while, so I thought I'd update you. 

I've hit a bit of a stumbling block. I was hoping to be high 50s average-wise by now, but seem to be stuck at 50. My scoring is ok and high 50s has happened, but missed doubles, or just poor legs are costing me. 

In the Wednesday Under 55 average nights, I still believe I am more than capable of winning, or at least reaching the latter stages. This may be part of the problem . Do I put myself under too much pressure?

I seem to be overthinking, even when I am trying my hardest to do the opposite. I'm trying the deep breathing, the visualisation and trying not to care approaches, but still doesn't click. In fact it makes it worse. 

When I am talking to other players, I am always telling them not to worry, just throw the darts, blah blah blah. But I can't do this myself. It's very annoying, as I know I can play so much better. I did think about changing darts, but I'm not sure this is the problem. One thing I was suggested, was chewing gum. It's supposed to automatically distract your brain and help you relax. I will try this tonight and couple it with genuinely not worrying if I win or lose. Not concentrate on relaxing, but just relax, like I'm warming up. 

Prior to tonight I'll just throw darts at home. No pressure, just throw and feel them fly well. The bad darts I won't even think about. Maybe this will work. If it doesn't, then I may have to strip everything back and go to the very basics. This may make me play awful for a while, but may make me much better in the long term. Maybe I have a really bad habit I'm not aware of. 

My past few tournament stats look like this:

8th Jan (under 55 average)  Avg 44.43: First 9 56.94: 100+ 8: 140+ 1: 180: 0

15th Jan (under 55 average)  Avg 47.28: First 9 54.50: 100+ 6: 140+ 1: 180: 0

16th Jan (Open)                        Avg 47.27: First 9 58.80: 100+ 4: 140+ 1: 180: 0

It's not horrific, however the averages need to be 50+ minimum and First 9 over 60. I think these can be achieved with my own current practise routines, coupled with my head being in the right place. 

Here's hoping tonight is the start of this!

If anyone has any advice,no matter how big or small,  then please feel free to  contact me on here or Twitter.(username pauldartbrain)

PDB - My Stats Model

 I thought I would share my thinking around a stats model that I designed to show player performance. I've named it the PDB Model. (or PDB for short)

As it's something that took me a while to work out, I won't give away everything, but here is the basis of it and how it may show who is currently playing well, or who is losing form. I also want to see how accurate it may be as a prediction model too. 

I will use the Challenge Tour as my example, as there have already been five events, so quite a bit of data. 

It is important to recognise who won and who got to the later stages, however this doesn't necessarily mean that the best player won. So as an outright prediction model, this may not be useful. Although, maybe in time, my PDB Model will align. For now I would be looking at single match prediction .

Some weight is given to the round a player got to, as that does show performance, but other factors will show a truer reflection, in my opinion. 

For example, when looking at the stats for averages for the first 5 events, you will see that out of the top 10 players, only 3 of the players are in the top 10 on the Order of Merit. I have been told by several experienced players (both pro and amateur), that you shouldn't look too much at averages. The win is the important thing. And this is true. Firstly, a losing average, doesn't give true result, as you may not have had darts at a double, so the average remains high. If you miss, say, 6 darts at a double, the average will tumble. Secondly, you could have a poor winning leg, but a great losing leg, in terms of average, and this will give you a lower overall average than you might expect. Therefore an average is more of a guide. It does have merit, and is included in the model, but is certainly not the be all and end all. 

My initial thoughts for power scoring, were that it holds a decent amount of weight when it comes to winning matches. The idea is that a player can get to a finish with extra darts in hand to hit the double. 

At an amateur level, I think this is true, but as the standard improves, then maybe less so. For the frequent 180 hitters, this didn't have too much impact, with only Beau Greaves and Mervyn King making the top 10 in the 180 frequency category and overall Order of Merit. 

Things become slightly more interesting in the 140 category where the top 4 players in this category make the top 10 in the Order Of Merit. So should more weight be granted here? Obviously this is only 5 events, with limited data, but will be interesting to see if this changes. 

My model is not set in stone. It's a work in progress. The aim is probably impossible, but it's to try and get as an accurate performance/prediction model as possible. 

I have a couple more factors such as previous form and do the trends show a player improving or declining over time. More data is needed to tweak these results, but they are certainly things to consider.

As Bobby George famously said 'trebles for show, doubles for dough', I think it is necessary to look at checkout percentages and how to weigh them in the model

I was surprised to see, that so far, only two players, Stefan Bellmont and Bean Greaves, are in the top 10 in this category. They did win 3 of the 5 events between them, so it is important, however, beyond these players, it doesn't appear to have that much of an impact. 

So, I set up my own PDB rankings to show what the model thinks are the top 10 performers so far. The maximum score a player can get is 800. (Someone has already done this, but only in a single event - more below)

Beau Greaves                  250

Stefan Bellmont              146.7

Mervyn King                  110

Tom Sykes                      96.7

Andreas Harrysson        76.7

Graham Hall                  73.3

Martin Grearson            73.3

Carl Sneyd                     70

Ryan Harrington            66.7

The top two positions are the same as the Order of Merit, which is promising, however only 4 of my performance top 10 are in the top 10 Order of Merit. However this is designed around performance, and possibly individual games. I guess I need another Challenge Tour weekend to test it and compare. 

One thing that was very interesting, is that both Tom Sykes and Graham Hall qualified for the UK Open, last weekend. The PDB model shows they are in good form and this reflected in their performance the day after the Challenge Tour finished. Maybe good fortune, but it's something to work with. 

One final thing, is that at the recent JDC Q School event 1, Ben Townley won the first tournament. He was top in every category that I use for this model (some I haven't mentioned, as some things have to be secret:). I don't think that will be replicated very often, especially over several events. However it will now be interesting to see how he progresses on the JDC Advanced Tour. 

I hope you enjoyed reading this. I'm a bit of a stat/maths nerd, so it's just getting my thoughts out there. 

Following The Littler Effect - Is It Possible To Get A Greaves Effect?

The PDC Challenge Tour began this month and it was clear who the headline maker was. It was, of course, Beau Greaves, who won two of the five events.  If that wasn't impressive enough, she was top, or thereabouts in the stats, over the five events:

Average 92.70   1st

180%      6.1      2nd

140+ %    21      1st

Checkout %  40  5th

This is out of over 300 players. Basically she is the top performer outside of the Pro Tour thus far. 

This was no surprise, of course, as Greaves has been playing close to this level for a few years now. Dominating the Women's game and picking up three WDF World titles, to date. She's had appearances on the Men's TV stage, in the Grand Slam and a PDC World Championship, but it seems that this year something is different. It seems that Greaves is up for the next challenge. 

This started at Q School, where she narrowly missed out. She was very competitive and would have been no surprise if she qualified for the PDC Pro Tour. This may have been a blessing in disguise. Rather than being thrown straight into the Pro Tour, she has the opportunity to play in Pro Tour events, where spaces have become available, due to Pro Tour players dropping out. This is a regular occurrence and gives the Challenge Tour players a chance to play on the Pro Tour, without the full committal. The players are selected based on Challenge Tour Order of Merit points. So, for example, if three players drop out of a Pro Tour event, the top three would be invited to play. Sometimes the Challenge Tour players decline, and players from fairly far down the rankings get the chance. Last year, for example, players from positions as low as 35-40, got a place.

With Greaves at the top of the Order of Merit, she will no doubt get an invite to at least one of the early Pro Tour events. She could make waves here, which would get extra media attention and maybe, just maybe, start a snowballing effect in the Women's game.

With social media growing all the time, this could be the time for the Women's game to hit the spotlight.  When Lisa Ashton qualified for the Tour, social media was not so prevalent, so perhaps,the inspiration factor wasn't quite there. However social media has exploded and achievements of all kinds are plastered all over the internet. 

When Luke Littler made is breakthrough in 2024, the internet followed. This in turn led to darts being a big thing. Young players have been taking up darts and the demand from spectators is larger than ever. 

Now Beau Greaves is becoming more and more familiar with darts fans and the media, will this hook in the young players, who want to emulate her and her achievements. I'd go as far a saying a role model even. Young female players have someone to look up to. Because Greaves is young too, she is more relatable, same with Littler. The sponsors and marketeers are not all over Greaves just yet, but maybe if she performs well on the Pro Tour and gets on the TV more, this opportunity will arise. 

I really hope this happens. Even if she got just 10% of the coverage Littler has had, then this could really expand things in the Women's game. Hopefully this will encourage young female players to take up the game and achieve what Greaves is achieving currently. As the young players come through, the current players will step up too and this could increase the standard markedly. 

There are some players already in the Women's Series challenging perennial performers such as Fallon Sherrock, Lisa Ashton and Deta Hedman. Kirsi Viinikainen won the recent Modus Womens Week, which was on TV (albeit a small channel). Gemma Hayter has been right up there in the Womens Series in 2024 and has also performed well on the Modus stage. Robin Byrne from Ireland has the potential to improve somewhat and Rhian O'Sullivan is no stranger to 100+ averages. And there are a host of names just behind them. 

Then there are the young players Paige Pauling and Sophie McKinlay, who are leading the way for the new wave of Junior graduates. The JDC players are already looking up to them!

I think there is a massive gap in the market to promote the Women's game. Viewing figures will increase if we are more aware of the players. That comes from more media exposure, so people start to talk about them. More exposure will also generate mote money into the Women's game, which in turn, creates more interest. 

The Women's Series is still very new, so shouldn't be compared to the other Tours just yet. The PDC just need to recognise that there is huge potential here and support it whole heartedly. The number of competitors will increase, and with Beau Greaves showing just what women players can do, then I am hopeful that this largely untapped area of darts will blossom. 

Finally, this piece isn't meant to take anything away from other pioneers of the Women's game (some of whom are mentioned above), but just wanted to highlight the opportunity that there currently is to get young female players into the game and make the Women's game more noticeable, and therefore more competitive and appealing to the wider public. 

PDC World Series/WDF Las Vegas Open/JDC Q School Round-Up (plus a couple more events)

 This has been a very busy period in the World of Darts.

There has been the PDC World Series in Bahrain, the WDF Las Vegas Open, JDC Q School, PDC Challenge Tour, Modus Legends Series and Arab Federations Cup. 

It's great to see such a variation areas and levels of darts. We can see those who may be successful in the future, who has early season form, and spotting any interesting results. 

PDC Bahrain Masters (World Series)

The first of the PDC World Series events began in Bahrain, which seems to becoming a permanent feature in the darts calendar. Bahrain are still finding their feet with the game, but the enthusiasm they are showing cannot be denied. The game continues to grow here. 

The qualifiers were a mix of Bahrain and Asian players, with Pablo Nebrida the only to get past Round One, by beating Rob Cross. Nebrida had a good World Championship and will be keen to watch him on the PDC Asian Tour.

Second Round saw Gerwyn Price back to his best as he beat Luke Littler 6-2 with an average of 115. He seems to be having a revival, so will be interesting to follow him this year. Stephen Bunting was also dominant, beating Chris Dobey 6-0.  

Bunting and Price then both won their semi-finals to set up a mouth watering final. After Luke Littler, these players seem to be the next best in form. Bunting went 4-1 up in quick fashion, but Price pulled it back to 5-3 and 6-4. However Bunting was too strong, particularly on his own throw and ran away an 8-4 winner. 

This was a great start to the season for both players, who will soon begin their Premier League campaign. Definitely something for Lukes Littler and Humphries to think about. 

WDF Las Vegas Open

 A large line-up for the first major WDF event of the year. Predominately North American, there were also players from around the world in attendance. The winner of both the Men's and Women's single titles would receive a place at the 2025 WDF World Championships, so all to play for. 

In the Women's events, it was the British contingent that won through. Deta Hedman won the Main LVO Open event, beating her Welsh counterpart, Rhian O'Sullivan 5-4. Jessica Melton was the best of the American challenge, making the semi final. Hedman has now booked her spot in the WDF World Championship in November. 

The second main event saw Rhian O'Sullivan go one better and grab the title. She beat Japanese player Sayuri Nishiguchi 5-4 . Good to see a new name appear in the final and will be keeping an eye Nishiguchi. Maybe she can follow in Mikuru Suzuki's footsteps??

The Men's LVO Open was won by a North American, in Canadian player, David Cameron. He was one of the favourites for the title, and didn't disappoint, beating American player Jeff Springer Jr 6-3. Cameron, like Hedman, now gets a place at the WDF World Championships.

The Mens LVC event was an all-American affair, with Chris Lim taking the title beating David Fatum. Both players will now be looking to put in strong performances on the CDC Tour, which is looking evermore competitive. 

JDC Q School

As mentioned in a previous post, this is the start of many players' careers. Players aged under 18 competing to play on the top level JDC Tour, known as the Advanced Tour. 

The standard was very high, considering this is basically entry level. But nothing entry level about the qualifiers. 

Ben Townley was particularly impressive in Event one. Not only did he win it, but he had the highest average, best 180%, best 140% and best checkout %. This done in a very competitive field. He could be a player to keep an eye on. 

Jack Courtney won through in Event Two, beating Kaya Basal 4-3. Basal would go on to also get a Advanced Tour card, by finishing second on the Order of Merit.

Pre-tournament favourite, Lex Paeshuysen, from Belgium, had two very good events, but didn't quite make the final. This changed in Event 3, where he won through against another favoured contender, Jayden Walker 4-3. Walker would later qualify via the Order of Merit.

The final event saw the Slovenian youngster, Dominik Kocik win in the final, beating Lee Bradshaw 4-2. Kocik had been playing consistently well over the previous events, so was no surprise that he came through to win. 

A very interesting weekend containing maybe the stars of tomorrow. I will be looking to see how these players, amongst other fare over the year, and who may be able to breakthrough. 

PDC Challenge Tour 1-5

The headlines of this set of events goes to Beau Greaves. She won two of the five events in emphatic style, showing she has the capability to match the men, and potentially challenge on the Pro Tour.

The first event, saw a packed line up, full of experience and talent. The quarter finals saw appearances from Mervyn King and Simon Whitlock, who were aiming to bounce straight back to the Pro Tour. However both lost and  it was another star of the game, Beau Greaves that came to the fore. After a 106+ average in her semi-final, Greaves went on to beat Stefan Bellmont 5-4 in a closely fought final. Greaves showed no nerves and that she belongs in this company. 

The second event was a little worse for Greaves, but not for trying. She lost 5-4 to Daniel Ayres, despite hitting a 97 average. Just one of those games. For some, a surprising quarter final line up, but all deserved. Tommy Lishman, in particular, making his second semi final out of two event.He beat Kevin Burness 5-1 to progress to the final, where he was joined by Carl Sneyd, who beat Jeffrey Sparidaans 5-3. In the final, Sneyd had too much for Lishman and raced to a 5-1 victory. Both players picking up valuable Order of Merit points, and a possible shot in the Pro Tour. 

The third event, saw Beau Greaves refreshed as she progressed through the rounds. Jimmy van Schie and John Henderson also found some form, as they made the semi finals. Kevin Burness was also carrying his form from the previous event to join them. The final saw Greaves in full control as she whitewashed John Henderson 5-0, with a 101 average. Greaves looked particularly strong all day, but was good to see John Henderson back climb the Order of Merit.

The fourth event saw some former Pro Tour regulars make the latter stages, Simon Whitlock made the quarter final, before losing out to Joe Hunt, who was having a great day. The other semi finalists were Mervyn King, Ted Evetts and Darius Labanauskas, so a lot of experience here.

King progressed to the final in a tight tussle with Hunt, winning 5-4, but Hunt will gain a lot of confidence from that. He faced Labanauskas, who dispatched Evetts 5-2. In the final, it was Labanauskas who won through, winning 5-3. King had the higher average, but was unable to displace the Lithuanian. 

The fifth and final event of the weekend saw a resurgence by Stefan Bellmont, who had been runner-up to Beau Greaves in event one. He navigated his way to the semi finals and was joined by another player that had just lost his Tour card, in Danny Jansen. Michael Flynn was on fire, defeating Andreas Harrysson 5-0, with a 102+ average and they were joined by Aden Kirk. Jansen got the better of Flynn in the semi final, despite Flynn averaging 98+ and Bellmont defeated Kirk. Jansen got off to a flying start on the 2024 Challenge Tour and was looking to do the same here, however Bellmont had other ideas and deservedly claimed the win with a 5-1 victory.

So an exciting first weekend of the Challenge Tour. Things went particularly well for Beau Greaves and Stefan Bellmont, but were some encouraging performances from the like of Tommy Lishman, Carl Sneyd and Joe Hunt, (to name but a few).  This promises to be a very tight year on the Challenge Tour and we may see it go down to the wire in November.

Modus Series Legends Week

Twelve of the more 'senior' players too part in the Modus Legends week competition, which culminated into a finals night on Saturday 18th January. 

Steve Beaton waltzed through the qualifying week, showing he has not lost his touch, despite opting to retire from the Pro Tour. He was joined by Neil Duff, Richie Burnett, Darryl Fitton, Devon Petersen and Richie Howson. Howson was particularly impressive in qualifying, winning all 10 of his Group C matches. This promised to be a tight final night, with any of the players in with a chance of winning. Beaton came through and then beat Duff 4-3 to book his place in the final. Not surprisingly, he was to face Howson, who maintained his undefeated run, by getting to the semi final and then beating Devon Petersen 4-2. So to the final, and this looked like a very even contest. Howson specialises in Seniors/Legends events, against Beaton, fresh from the Pro Tour. It was Howson that eventually came out on top with a 4-2 victory. I'm sure we will be seeing more of these players in future Seniors and Legends events.

Arab Federations Cup

I thought I'd add a note of the Arab Federations Cup singles. Darts seems to be growing in the Middle East, with Bahrain, in particular, leading the way. The leading players in Bahrain, Basem Mahmood and Abdullah Saeed, both played in the recent PDC World Series event, and so was no surprise they were the finalists here. Mahmood proved to be too good for his compatriot, as he won 7-2 and claimed the title. 

It's really good to see so many new countries taking the sport seriously and it will be interesting to see how these emerging countries perform over the coming months and years.